Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 3

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Welcome to thread 3 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

The Foundation Trust that St Thomas’ belongs to has had 44 deaths so far (0.9% of England’s total, according to HSJ)

No idea re: admissions or critical care numbers.

If we were to assume Boris Johnson is in the 50% who recover, how long is he likely yo be out of action for?

I would guess that ICU to discharged and back at work must be a long time? Don't know where to find the data though.

Fate ICU can be up to 2 weeks dependent on illness and recovery.
Then I would think realistically months of actual recovery.

No idea. It took my daughter almost a whole year to properly recover after a virus put her in PICU.

I certainly think he absolutely needs to stop working and delegate to others, and that he will need time to recover. Hope he does make a full recovery, and my thoughts are with his fiancée.

Place marking

I've read that of those admitted to ICU, 2/3 end up on a ventilator (usually within 24 hours).

Of those ventilated, 60% die.

So currently better than 50/50

And although we've seen that it is not a disease from which the 'relatively' young are immune, he does still have age on his side. He probably has diet and stress working against him but these are not 'underlying health conditions'. Although he may have underlying health conditions that we are not aware of.

But assuming not, odds are still somewhat better than 50/50.

It is worrying if that Guido story is true, about him having had pneumonia in his youth
and also if he is a cigar smoker

I look at this graph every day: aatishb.com/covidtrends/?country=Belgium&country=China&country=Denmark&country=Italy&country=Netherlands&country=Spain&country=Sweden&country=US&country=United+Kingdom

It shows changed in the pattern. Social distancing is working.

John Burn-Murdochh@jburnmurdoch*

NEW: Mon 6 April update of coronavirus trajectories

Daily new deaths:

• US has averaged 1,000 deaths per day over the last week

• Daily deaths in Italy & Spain peaked around 23-24 days after lockdown
• Suggests UK could peak in 7-10 days

Times reports a doctor saying Johnson received 4 litres of oxygen,
which is below the normal 15 litre threshold for ICU

• suggesting he is in a better condition than most ICU patients

That's positive for him

There was a doctor interviewed I think on one of the main news programmes tonight saying that of people being discharged from ICU, 80% are not back at work a year later. I don't know if that is right or how much it depends on reason for being in ICU, length or nature of treatment there etc.

I’ve been watching this thread for a long time it’s incredibly helpful.

With respect to long term complications from ventilation/ICU stay there is a lot of evidence about the detrimental effects, physical, psychological, cognitive, emotional which can impact on all areas of life going forwards. Some examples
ARDS Long term follow up

5 yr follow up

There are NICE guidelines about rehabilitation after critical care too which give indication of how a critical card stay can impact on many areas of function and performance
NICE critical care rehab

A friend was talking about the psychological impact of icu on her, which was huge . At the same time, for her, she found it completely changed her view on life and her values etc. Of course that's very individual.

Unimaginable stress for them expecting a baby. I can't imagine what Carrie is going though. I had slapped cheek scare issues in one Pregnancy and it did cause perinatal anxiety which I believe also led to extra anxiety for us both afterwards too. I would actually like to think Boris would consider stepping down or aside for a good period afterwards.

Really interesting studies Whattodowithaminute, thank you for finding them.

The nice welsh intensivist talked about how they usually provide psychological support for families but can’t at present (and survivors post ICU). This was our experience - my DD is a child but is still struggling with mood swings and was seeing a psychologist right up til everything stopped due to the virus (and I’ve just been assessed for PTSD support). She had 4 more admissions after ICU (due to her depleted immune system )and It took pretty much a year for her to be back in school full time but even then she had no energy for anything extra curricular.
Modern medicine is amazing and it can take a good long while for our bodies and brains to catch up on the fact we survived something catastrophic.

Hope Boris had a good night. Poor Carrie is meant to be self isolating so unless she isolated with a family member, she will be going through this alone. ICU might be different but PICU was open 24 hours to immediate family and I really needed that. The virus changes everything.

Does anyone know when the ONS stats come out for the deaths outside if hospitals?

Wow Belgium’s just posted a big number today - 403 up from 185 yesterday. I could have sworn they’d been around the 150-20m mark until now. I wonder if they’ve changed reporting or if it’s just a massive increase for them. I’m going to see what I can find.

According to my phone, I made the image of last week’s figures on the 31st, so potentially the next release will be today?

www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=%2fpeoplepopulationandcommunity%2fbirthsdeathsandmarriages%2fdeaths%2fdatasets%2fweeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales%2f2020/publishedweek1320201.xlsx

539?

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales

Figures released with an 11 day lag

Thanks DuLang

Those numbers are really worrying, DuLang.

I've compared them with the numbers on Worldometer for the UK. On March 20th there were 177 official deaths. By March 27th there were 759, so an additional 582.

Adding 103 up to 20th March, and 539 for the following week almost doubles the numbers. And as we know the hospital numbers are also lagging, the UK numbers are looking even more scary

Sorry to refer to people as "numbers". It's such an awful way to look at things, but this thread and other factual information is keeping me sane at the moment. If I think about it emotionally I find it very difficult to cope.

New,

I don’t think the numbers are ‘scary’. I think we will get out of this with, tops, 50k deaths. This would be less than a 10% increase on a normal year.

My guess is that the 1st World will ‘escape’ the worst of it. However, I think, in the developing and third world, this will end up being far more serious.

People living in slums and shanty towns cannot social distance and may not even be on the internet to get the public health messages. Whether they will even get basic oxygen and fluids ,if sick, is unlikely.

And then, of course, if the first world does get on top of this, they will not allow travel from areas still infected.

And, if a vaccine is discovered, how long will it take to get to rural Pakistan. Nigeria etc?

We are incredibly fortunate to have the luxury of staying at home and treating people in the last few years of their lives.