Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 3

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Welcome to thread 3 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

I mentioned a news report earlier in the thread from yesterday (BBC) which was showing the police, ambulance, fire service being trained up in teams with a Dr to certify deaths in the community and care homes and then to bag the body and remove it to temp morgues. They said they expected 30% deaths in the community vs hospital.

Are your figures showing it a bigger % ? If so that’s really worrying at this stage because I would imagine these community deaths will be higher at the peak when people won’t be brought in or may choose not to go in. There was a letter to carehomes from a Sussex NHS Trust saying that they would not be admitting anyone over the age of 75 with CV.

The ONS stats are only Eng & Wales. Is there any resource that adds in Scotland and NI?

On those out-of-hospital figures I see that 44/100 are in London. That's alarming - might it suggest people with CV are less likely to go to hospital in the city? Or that there's a particularly high number of care homes?

FingonTheValiant - I was just thinking the same. They seemed to be in line with The Netherlands for some time, but something seems to have changed.

South Korea is sobering... Whereas new cases dropped off markedly from mid-March, deaths continue to rise linearly, and are now at nearly 2% of total cases. I’m guessing it’s patients lingering on ventilation who eventually succumb.

My guess is that the 1st World will ‘escape’ the worst of it. However, I think, in the developing and third world, this will end up being far more serious.

My hope is that, like the flu, Coronavirus isn’t as well suited to hot weather. That might explain why developing countries appear so far to have got off relatively lightly.

FingonTheValiant - Have just seen Worldometer says Belgium's figures include 241 deaths in retirement homes, previusly unreported.

We are lucky larry.
Similar to gerbil, I'm hoping that paper about vitamin D being protective means this will be much less of a problem nearer the equator where there is more sun. That should help reduce the impact in poorer areas.

previously

summary of ONS figures from

www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/apr/07/uk-coronavirus-live-news-boris-johnson-spends-night-in-intensive-care

QUOTE
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) figures, which are based on death certificates, show there were 539 deaths where Covid-19 was listed in the week to 27 March, compared with 103 (1.0% of all deaths) up to 20 March.

The figure includes deaths outside hospitals, including those in homes and care homes, and includes patients who have not tested positive for the virus but are suspected of having the disease.

The number of new deaths connected to Covid-19 registered in England and Wales is slightly lower than that reported by the Department of Health and Social Care due to delays in reporting and registering news deaths.

The ONS figures are based on mentions of Covid-19 in death certificates, while the government’s daily statistics are taken from NHS Trusts.

According to the ONS figures, up to 27 March 92.9% (501 deaths) involving Covid-19 occurred in hospital with the remainder happening in hospices, care homes and private homes.

We also know the disease is more dangerous for older people. Today’s ONS data provides a demographic breakdown for 647 deaths which were registered before 27 March. This shows that more than two thirds (69%) occurred among those aged 75 and over.
END QUOTE

My guess is that the 1st World will ‘escape’ the worst of it. However, I think, in the developing and third world, this will end up being far more serious.

Developing nations have much younger populations and so should have much lower mortality than us, according to recent modelling from Imperial (although iirc the modelling made some dodgy assumptions about the likely quality and extent of medical care available).

This article ends by saying that for poorer countries this is a tragedy that doesn't bear thinking about .

It's unimaginable what this virus will do .I'm so lucky to live in the defeloped world .

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/05/the-observer-view-on-coronavirus-a-tragedy-with-no-clear-end-for-poorer-nations

sorry ,not facts and figures ,I'll be quiet

Apologies if I am being a bit dozy but out of those 539 Covid deaths how many were already counted as dying in the hospital?

I don’t quite understand the ONS data. The weekly figures sheet suggests that there were 539 deaths in the week ended 27 March. However, the sheet on E&W comparisons suggests that by 1st April, 1639 cumulative deaths had been registered for E&W by date of death up to the 27th March compared with 964 reported in the Govt news release.

This suggests there is a significant lag of at least a week in registering the death.

If, as it seems, the actual figures for deaths in the UK are double (or heading towards double) the official figures given out in the daily updates, then I do think it is "scary".

My understanding is that the figures in DuLang's post refer to deaths only in the community, definitely not included in the governments figures (which are referred to daily as "of the people who are admitted to UK hospitals, sadly X (no) were reported to have died in the last 24 hours".

In other words (and I'd be delighted to be corrected), the daily update at the press conference includes those who died in hospital and were reported in the last 24 hours. It doesn't include the ONS figures, nor does it include the lag - those who died but aren't reported for sometimes a week or more.

refraction, my understanding is that NONE of the 539 have been counted.

and none of the 103 from the previous week.

Oh New. Wow that is a lot

I think 501 were in hospital, according to the bbc. On their website now.

I don’t think that’s correct. The ONS is for total deaths and also includes deaths from all sources.

For instance, total registered deaths for the week of 27 March was 11,141. This was ~10% above the average of 10,130 for that week for the past 5 years. However, deaths in the year to date of 150,057 are still below the 5 year average of 153,868.

A lot will depend on the next 2-3 weeks but it is still very likely that total deaths this year will be the same as in other years, even with the pandemic.

But the ONS data states that
"According to the ONS figures, up to 27 March 92.9% (501 deaths) involving Covid-19 occurred in hospital with the remainder happening in hospices, care homes and private homes."

So that 501 could be double counted somewhere so therefore deaths outside of the hospital accounts for 38?

Having looked at the ONS spreadsheet again, it is definitely incorrect to say that the 539 were not in the government’s total. They have been and are over 90% in hospital.

However, it seems that they are only those where the coding is complete. 1639 is the cumulative deaths in E&W by date of death up to 27 March compared to 964 reported by the DoH. The 1639 can be expected to also as there is also a backlog in reporting to the ONS. For example, by 27 March, 207 deaths had been registered by ONS for the 19th March, but by 1st April 280 Covid deaths had been registered as occurring on 19th March. From looking at the data, there is roughly a 2 week lag in registering deaths.

So they ONS will eventually have all the deaths included? Because 560 odd is far too low sen for that week?

What's interesting though is that the mortality rate for those weeks is lower than height of winter for some age groups. I still think once this is over and all registered deaths are recorded the numbers for last week and the next 2 weeks are going to being a shocking stark reality of what we are facing and have faced.

So it is very confusing. 539 seems to be where coding is complete, but 1,639 is the total number of deaths registered.