Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 3

[Barracker]

Welcome to thread 3 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

Bojo gone to hospital

How are Japan's numbers so low?

Apparently he’s just in for precautionary tests

It doesn’t seem good though and I fear they are playing it down somewhat

Looks good news from Italy and Ireland

DataVizIrelandd@datavizireland*

The % growth of confirmed #covid19 cases(3.46% today)
and % growth of case fatalities(3.42% today)

continue to fall dramatically in Italy.

The lockdown measures are having a significant impact and Italy looks to be turning a corner

The daily %growth of #COVID19ireland patients requiring ICU is 4.43% today.

This is lowest recorded %growth yet and the trend has been dramatically reducing over the past 2 weeks.

Yeah, I doubt if a PM would be advised to go to hospital during a crisis - and hospitals are risky too - unless necessary, not just a "precaution"

Yes you have a point I find it very concerning, hope he improves

I think to admit him he'll be quite unwell indeed.

Yes, also hope he improves soon. Worrying.

Fingers crossed he’s just sick enough to experience enough of the NHS to inspire him commit to funding it properly (and makes a full recovery with plenty of his term left to implement it).

Indeed!

I wonder if he smokes? My guess would be he does. Plus he is overweight/obese and male - both risk factors.

I have read that he smokes, although I don't remember where

There been a lot of discussion about whether obesity is a contributing factor but so far the percentage of people in hospital who are obese is similar to the percentage of people obese in the general population.

It BMI 40+ is a risk
as it is in the official UK list of vulnerable conditions for COVID

BJ is fat, but nowhere near that BMI

He's 5ft9 and was 16.5 stone last year when he was saying he wanted to lose weight so his BMI then would have been mid 30s but I think he has lost weight over the last year.

BugChocFrenzy - do you have a link to that list, I haven’t seen it?

Will he be experiencing the NHS in its current state though or getting preferential or even private treatment?

@EasterBuns Here:
[[https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/new-guidance-lists-overweight-people-17936652
www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/new-guidance-lists-overweight-people-17936652]]

UK govt list of those at increased risk

•	People aged 70 or older (regardless of medical conditions)
•	Those under 70 with an underlying health condition listed below (ie anyone instructed to get a flu jab as an adult each year on medical grounds) chronic (long-term) respiratory diseases, such as asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), emphysema or bronchitis
•	chronic heart disease, such as heart failure
•	chronic kidney disease
•	chronic liver disease, such as hepatitis
•	chronic neurological conditions, such as Parkinson’s disease, motor neurone disease, multiple sclerosis (MS), a learning disability or cerebral palsy diabetes
•	problems with your spleen – for example, sickle cell disease or if you have had your spleen removed
•	a weakened immune system as the result of conditions such as HIV and AIDS, or medicines such as steroid tablets or chemotherapy
•	<strong>being seriously overweight (a BMI of 40 or above)</strong>
•	those who are pregnant

even higher risk
• People who have received an organ transplant and remain on ongoing immunosuppression medication
• People with cancer who are undergoing active chemotherapy or radiotherapy
• People with cancers of the blood or bone marrow such as leukaemia who are at any stage of treatment
• People with severe chest conditions such as cystic fibrosis or severe asthma (requiring hospital admissions or courses of steroid tablets)
• People with severe diseases of body systems, such as severe kidney disease (dialysis)

John Burn-Murdochh@jburnmurdoch*

NEW: Sun 5 April update of coronavirus trajectories

Daily new deaths:
• US now recording more daily deaths than any country in the world since outbreaks began

• UK still on similar path to Italy, suggesting ~2 weeks from peak daily deaths

oops, not sure why Ireland's ICU graph posted again
Pls ignore 1st photo

FATEdestiny thanks for sharing, really interesting. are we able to say how we stand yet compared to our 'normal' deaths each year?

I think i read on another thread that typically, 1500 people die each day in the UK.

Around 10,000-11,000 deaths per week if you track all deaths, according to ONS (source link in OP). They don't release daily figures but 1500 would be a reasonable approximation for all deaths.

Some more good news from Italy (source - Worldometer):

The number of patients hospitalized in intensive care has declined for the first time since the beginning of the epidemic in Italy

The target of bringing down the reproductive number (R0) to 1 has been reached. Now the goal is to bring it below 1. Earlier in the epidemic, it was as high as 3. This value represents the average number of people to which a single infected person will transmit the virus. An epidemic with a reproductive number below 1 will gradually disappear

An epidemic with a reproductive number below 1 will gradually disappear
Only in a closed system. As long as there are other countries with epidemics still ongoing, they won't be able to open their borders

Interesting on R4 re XX advantage atm