Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 3

[Barracker]

Welcome to thread 3 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

Frownette I think those tested are mostly admissions to hospital with any kind of breathing problems,
but increasingly NHS staff are also being tested - a 15% test cap on them has been lifted

There are some drive-thru testing sites, but these seem to require a doctors note making the appointment

I don't know if some people with serious symptoms are also tested at home ?

• those not quite at death's door and hence not allowed to go to hospital

Is there anywhere we can see official levels of testing per day?

Yep, good point, DuLANG
Some firms are having their most senior / key people tested privately, if they have symptoms

Private test costs about 450 quid each, I read

Tg for this thread where people are calm, informed and reasonable. Too much aggression without facts out there ->

@DuLANGDuLANGDuLANG and @BigChocFrenzy thank you

I think our only reliable numbers are deaths. But those are a lagging indicator of cases about 14 days ago.

I think the government is also using hospital admissions, but I am not sure those are published.

The positive tests jumped today but does that mean we are just doing more testing. And as for serious/critical and recovered, I suspect (and hope) that they are random numbers.

Re testing, they do appear to be doing some in the community. My friend has just started chemo and had CV symptoms a few days later. They sent someone to her house to take swabs. This is in Kent.

RE community testing it depends on area. I've been quite ill 3 weeks and nearly - but not quite - admitted to hospital 3 times. My GP wants to test because I have underlying conditions but there is no community testing in this area at all. The drive through testing is now restricted to NHS staff, no patients. In other areas I believe there is extremely limited testing e.g cancer patients but it doesn't extend to all shielded patients or people like me who are severely ill enough that we would normally be hospitalised.

Looks like Spain, Italy, Switzerland and Germany have all turned the corner with both new infections and deaths declining.

Hopefully we will follow soon...

My NHS Foundation trust hospital will test five (5) NHS staff each day...🙄

Looks like Spain, Italy, Switzerland and Germany have all turned the corner with both new infections and deaths declining.

Spam and Italy, yes, it seems like they are probably passing the peak.

Switzerland had record number of deaths yesterday so too early to say, and Germany’s figures increase during the day, their last three days being their highest in terms of deaths, so definitely too early to call there.

FIVE!

Holy shit.

😭

Derby,

Looking at Germany, new cases seemed to peak a week ago, of course, if there are further updates, I could be wrong.

And with Switzerland, if you look at the ‘active case’ graph, it has a convincing peak.

My NHS Foundation trust hospital will test five (5) NHS staff each day...

That is shocking.

Maybe not quite reached the peak here in Germany, although analysts here are cautiously hoping the curves are flattening out

For the last several days, # new cases has been oscillating:
4-5k for 3 days, then 6-7 k for another 3 days, then back again to 4-5k

New deaths for several days have stayed well above 150

We will reach 100,000 confirmed cases today, or maybe tomorrow, with around 1500 deaths,
so current death rate of 1.5%

What is interesting in the daily RKI (public health) summary is the difference between who is infected and who is dying:

• men & women have equal % confirmed cases - but a very different deth rate

• 70% infections are to those aged 15-59 and only 15% are aged 70+
  but 86% of deaths are in that 70+ group

What is too often overlooked is the number of previously healthy young & midddle-aged people who became seriously ill
and who will require months of recovery & even rehab, before they are back to "normal"

So younger people should not be blase about their risks if they catch CV - it's not just about the death rate

We would all love to see one european country pass its peak and show a decline.. fingers crossed this happens soon. Not sure we are there yet.

who will require months of recovery & even rehab, before they are back to "normal"

Absolutely. It took my daughter almost a year to recover from her brush with EBV-sHLH. Viruses can cause a lot of damage and as yet we have no idea what the long term consequences might be.

Sweden prepares for possible tighter coronavirus measures as deaths rise

Looks to be problems in cities and care homes, but not out in the very sparsely populated rural areas

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/05/sweden-prepares-to-tighten-coronavirus-measures-as-death-toll-climbs

Country, which has taken soft approach, has death rate higher than Nordic neighbours’
.....
“But in Stockholm it is fast becoming critical,” Hanson said.
“There is a real risk now that cases will rise so high that the hospitals cannot cope.
Treatment choices are already having to be made by biological age.”

Like many hospitals, my local one is under immense pressure. People are waiting in A&E for 1-2 days. I was there overnight with classic CV symptoms, on oxygen for hours, xray showing pneumonia and had previously had close contact with a person who tested positive. They wouldn’t swab me and just sent me home from A&E once I was stable with a clinical diagnosis of COVID.

Did you get a chest X-ray, Jack? I’m hearing stories of many diagnosis first being made due to the unique appearance of lungs affected by CV19, because tests are either not available or are slow to return.

Wishing you a full and speedy recovery

Thank you DuLANG I am already feeling a bit more human.
I did have an X-ray, yes. Interesting about the unique appearance thing, shall have to look into it as I’m curious now.

That's good you are feeling a little better, Jack
Do rest and take care of yourself
All the best for a fast recovery 💐

Yep, the lungs may have this distinct appearance under X-ray:

• • • DAILY UPDATE * * * Sunday APRIL 5th

Total UK cases: 47,806
New UK cases: 5,903
Total UK Deaths: 4,934
New UK Deaths: 621

Boris Johnson is in hospital

Germany reaches 100,000 confirmed cases: