Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 3

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Welcome to thread 3 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

oxford.onlinesurveys.ac.uk/coronavirus-disease-covid-19-in-the-uk-community

Been watching this thread for a while. Find it really interesting and inspiring how invested and clever you all are! I wonder if any of you can answer this question for me. I check the worldometre every day but the number of recovered cases in the UK doesn't seem to have moved from 135 in ages. Are we just not counting these? Or?

Ooh missed it @mashabraydyo, can you summarise?

Please :D

Neurotrash I’m afraid I wouldn’t do it justice to the science as had a toddler talking at same time but it’s the same person who authored the report re XX advantage (number of genes are bigger for XX and we can select better what we need from a larger pool I think but do listen).

It’s a big segment with really good segues into XX and how we’ve been downplayed in terms of ‘weaker sex’ in the past and men are more likely to be called ‘genius’. Now talking about gender.

Can you access R4 player? worth finding - It will give us XX people a boost.

It’s called Start the Week: The Gender Gap discussing the gender superiority of women - Kirsty Wark

It’s because the UK are not updating the data very quickly,m:

Very few countries accurately record recoveries,
because some people don't notify the authorities of this - especially if there is no clear way to do so

The recovered cases measure has been dropped as it was inaccurate.

That episode of Start the Week will be re-broadcast tonight in a slightly shortened version NeurotrashWarrior. It was very interesting, well worth a listen.

I hope there will be an article discussing it somewhere, for those of us abroad who aren't atm hooked up to UK TV & Radio

(I used to be, but I moved and it'll be a while before the satellite man can come out ... )

V good numbers from Spain today....looks like the infectivity rate well below one with new infections and deaths now dropping for several days in a row.

Does this not work for you BigChocFrenzy:

www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b006r9xr/episodes/downloads

So the numbers get below R1 with people in lockdown...

After a while all the essential workers still mixing will have had it.

Then we start letting people out in dribs and drabs, while keeping an eye on the numbers which must stay below R1 in order for hospitals to cope.

Eventually everyone except the shielded group will have had it so...we have herd immunity and the shielded group can come out.

Does that sound right?
And if treatment or a vaccine comes into the mix, it can all speed up a bit?

Oh, many thanks, Nauticant 👍
TV downloads don't work, but this audio one does
< settles down with a to listen >

Pickle,

We can get the numbers below 1 in lockdown. The aim, I think, is to get the amount of infections really quite low before releasing lockdown. In an ideal world, we keep them below one by lots of testing and contact tracing and we maintain social distancing. Eventually a vaccine comes along.

In reality, I think the assumption is that after lockdown is released, the numbers will slowly creep up and we will need repeated lockdowns to keep it under control.

Most models believe we are nowhere near herd immunity and cannot get there quickly without overwhelming the NHS. Even in London, I suspect only 5-7% of the population have had it, tops.

Thanks all, found R0's post on another thread which I'll post here:

Will try to find later; grumpy toddler and 7yr old keeping me busy too!

*Radio 4 now all about the differences between men (XY) & women (XX)

www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000h2c0

Women are faring better than men in the coronavirus pandemic because of their genetic superiority, according to the physician Sharon Moalem. He tells Kirsty Wark that women live longer than men and have stronger immune systems because they have two x chromosomes to choose from. In his book, The Better Half, Moalem calls for better understanding of the genetic gender gap and for a change to the male-centric, one-size-fits-all view of medical studies*...

So is that why R0wantrees is R0 and not Ro?

Don't understand the R0 in the graphs but just noticed that link...

Omg it's Gina Rippon!😍

The percentage of the population exposed varies according to the epidemiology centre/model I believe - Imperial say 5-7% but Oxford say up to 50%

It is very tempting to believe in the highest estimate of the Oxford study - iirc they have a range -
which would bring an early and much less severe resolution of the crisis

However, the evidence does not seem there:

The UK test a very small number of people, those with more severe sympoms that make COVID a likely diagnosis
Even those tests have fewer positives than 50%

Germany are testing about 500,000 per week and have a total of 100,000 cases,
so we are also assuming here that only a small % have had COVID
and we are in for a long haul.

Hence the planned German study of repeatedly testing the same 100,000 people, as soon as a reliable test for immunity is available
This will show both the baseline immunity level and how it grows

Whatsnext,

Oxford's model, however, suggests our disease is completely different to any other epidemic in the World and no-one is taking their numbers vey seriously (I believe they even caveated that model themselves).

So is that why R0wantrees is R0 and not Ro?

Nothing so complex sorry NeurotrashWarrior!
I often use a number in log in words.

Thank you all again for the work in these threads

Is it possible the truth is somewhere between the two? If this virus is so infectious people shouldn't go out to beaches etc, then it would it would rip through a crowded tube platform, school assembly or Crufts or Cheltenham races etc. So regional hotspots like London and Birmingham are more like 25% but in the sticks it is more like 4%?

Thank you Larry!