Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 3

[Barracker]

Welcome to thread 3 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

Missed a lot of this thread so will catch up now!

Figures are going to be slightly delayed again today.

Today's figures will be published later this afternoon.

We are working hard to provide you with the latest information and will tweet this out as soon as possible.

UPDATE on coronavirus (#COVID19) testing in the UK:

As of 9am 5 April, a total of 195,524 people have been tested of which 47,806 tested positive.

As of 5pm on 4 April, of those hospitalised in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus, 4,934 have sadly died.

So 621?

Often a bit less at weekends

Sky are saying ‘be cautious, this drop could be due to administrative reasons as it’s a Sunday’ and they are stressing that it’s only ‘deaths in hospital’.

Apologies if this has been posted but I recall some queries about recovery data - I found this today on the pdf "about the data" on the gov.uk dashboard for LA updates...

Recovered patients data
Previous updates of the dashboard included a number of patients recovered. This figure was the number of people discharged from NHS clinical services in England following a positive test result for COVID-19 and was provided by NHS services. This statistic has proved difficult to assemble and a replacement indicator is being developed

This Europe wide analysis is useful as it shows the current crisis in comparison to previous critical flu periods, the 2016/17 winter being the highest in recent times. Italy have now reached the weekly excess mortality rates of that period, Spain are close. Overall across Europe we are still a long way off the excess death rates experienced during that winter. This will obviously change as time goes on and there are some delays as noted in other reports between the deaths and the date of notification.

www.euromomo.eu/

recovery data

www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/f94c3c90da5b4e9f9a0b19484dd4bb14

The pdf I mention above can be found in the bottom right of the dashboard page

555 in England apparently

www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-52171176

So 621?

Yes: www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-52171176

Another rise - but it's to be expected

Apologies - it's actually a slight fall on yesterday's figure isn't it?

Just under 6000 new uk cases confirmed -thats quite high, right?

Yes but as pp said it could be a false dip as the reporting may not be as accurate on the weekend. Plus Scotland have only recorded 2 deaths due to a new system of recording, not sure what that actually means.

Deaths always lower at the weekend

@Zofloramummy it is, but it was 2 weeks ago this weekend that some people were treating the weekend as a bit of a "last hurrah". Given how long it takes to end up needing to be in hospital (as that's where most of the testing is done) it's not surprising thats up.
I may be wrong though.

Thanks for this thread. I'm behind but trying to understand all this, so apologies if this has been covered already but, has anyone compared mortality figures in recent months with those for the same time last year? I'm wondering how many extras we have compared to those we normally have for respiratory diseases etc etc.

I agree, it’s an average of 23 days from infection time admission I think?

23 days from infection till death. More like 12-14 till admission I think. Obviously an average some die quickly (like that poor 13 yo) some hang on for weeks :(

Have found this from the office of national statistics on influenza rates

Right, I'm going to ask something really stupid, apologies :)

If the only people who are admitted to a hospital bed are tested, where does the number of new cases per day come from? Are that many people admitted but deemed safe to recuperate at home?

I thought cases would be those in hospital plus nhs workers tested and members of the cabinet?

has anyone compared mortality figures in recent months with those for the same time last year?

We don't really have enough data yet. But the ONS are releasing the data weekly to allow for comparisons.

Anyone have any thoughts on today’s death toll for Scotland? An increase of 2 in 24 hours. Nicola Sturgeon saying it’s a true representation.
Wondered if its dropped now because they finished adding all the missed deaths to the totals over last few days.

If the only people who are admitted to a hospital bed are tested, where does the number of new cases per day come from? Are that many people admitted but deemed safe to recuperate at home?

It’s not a stupid question, it’s the exact kind of question we are trying to find the answers to!

The number of new cases per day is, as far as we can tell, a combo of hospital admissions (although admission to positive test results can take a couple of days) plus healthcare workers (who may or may not be well enough to then isolate at home) and the odd VIP, such as Prince Charles and the PM.

I do know someone in London with mild symptoms who has tested positive via a test supplied through their work’s private healthcare system (full time
employee of international publisher Conde Nast) but I do not know if these privately obtained and processed tests are compiled of reported in Public Health England’s statistics