Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 3

[Barracker]

Welcome to thread 3 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

Long time lurker as another one who likes numbers! Had an email yesterday from a fellow university academic in France who went to his home town (population 5000) before lockdown. He said that their figures aren't counting anyone who died at home - "common" occurrence in his home town due to distance to nearest hospital.

Despite all the vaguaries of the data, really interesting to see the curves flatten about when you would expect them to following lockdowns.

Keep the figures and numbers coming please!

@theAnts
Thanks for the website link, scary how cases have grown in some areas.

Compared with say Leicestershire.

Great thread, really interesting. Does anyone know how Sweden is tracking against other Countries given they haven’t implemented a lockdown and are aiming for a herd immunity approach.

Quentin, the entire point of social distancing is to be stop transmission.
I can't believe I've seen pictures of lone couples sitting by the sea not near anyone except plod who has fine to question and educate them!

I can't see the Problem with londers siting in parks either as long as they are one family /household and at a social distance!

Vitamin d!! Fresh air... Excersise... Mental health!

We've lost sight of basic common sense and what we are trying to do here.

I'm very very lucky, we have a really good sized garden here! We have been out once recently but my dd have had plenty of fresh air! And sun...

Unfortunately, on fb people going to our local park have been photographed and plastered all over Facebook without trial.

Interesting PHE document, with extract:

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/839350/Surveillance_of_influenza_and_other_respiratory_viruses_in_the_UK_2018_to_2019-FINAL.pdf?fbclid=IwAR0Xbgfye0rYShPOTFXBQVGwVqpbSsPoeTI0AHw8uzuiM1fb6k5IKJ0jifA

my friend has been making some interesting charts Im not sure if MN allows facebook links but I will give it a go. seems to piss in the wind regarding obesity and also ageing population.

www.facebook.com/cherry.austin

Im really veering towards the immune issues, especially allergy type, being critical. Weve seen a few cystic fibrosis patients coming through and out the other side, despite them being in the extremely high risk group. I know a consultant previously had stated that unless their lung function was really low, they should be the same risk as everyone else. However the cytokine storm looks worrying for any kind of respitratory reaction to viruses (sadly my daughter with CF often developes allergic reactions to some viruses, so we are not out of the woods)

Does this allergy thing mean people with hayfever and eczema are more susceptible? That is both my DH and my 4 year old

Its only my personal theory. I wouldnt take it as gold. Im simply pondering.

John Burn-Murdochh@jburnmurdoch*

....Sat 4 April update of coronavirus trajectories

Daily new deaths:
• US about to go clear of Spain for most daily deaths of any country in the world

• UK on steeper trajectory than Italy, which was seen as hardest-hit country worldwide

@Indiana50 read through the report but don't see anything particularly relevant to the current situation

Just another one saying thanks to you all for this analysis. It's terrifying, but I'd rather be in a place of knowledge, and I really appreciate all the work being put in to sharing this data.

US has more than six times the population of Spain. Surely that affects the interpretation of the numbers?

@Sexnotgender I have the app & fill it in daily, I've noticed the questions changing sometimes too,

I feel like I'm helping a bit in my own way which is good in a situation where I feel like I have little control.

Population size does not affect rate of growth in the early phase of spread. John Burn Murdoch goes through the explanation on his twitter feed

twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1244380095164420101?s=20

Thanks again for this sensible thread. Data focus helps me manage. Place marking again.

@Pishposhpashy I'm in Ireland where there are far fewer cases and deaths so far but I read recently that the median age of those in ICU in Ireland is 62. That worries me, as like most other countries we have a low number of ICU beds here. It seems that the very old who get very sick often don't make it to ICU and there are quite a lot of relatively young people on ventilators The median age of those who have died is much older and I think people hear this and think they're not at risk as it only affects the elderly. We are coping with ICU numbers for now, but are expecting a surge...

Thank you!

Thanks LWJ70

My worry about this virus personally is that I have a very itchy lung reaction to coughs viruses ( eventually diagnosed with asthma). I can get croup like my children, better since on inhalers but still had a bad one last year after being on Fostair for 3 mo. Never been in hospital though. I don't have other allergies except for penicillin. And my lungs react to chemicals and smoke but not badly. Is that an allergic reaction to viruses?

I've been taking 3000 vit d daily since end jan and was doing most days during the winter as bf. I noticed my last cough wasn't as bad as DH's which is unusual. So I've been making him take it too for the last month. I've been telling him for a couple of years he should but he usually ignores me!

This welsh intensivist (Royal Gwent Hospital) describes similar to what you are observing re: NI, Life

m.youtube.com/watch?v=ejlbCmRJMW4

Wow DU. This is concerning.

@LifeInAHamsterWheel

Don’t know if you saw the current figures for ICU beds in Ireland

142 Covid
139 non Covid
109 vacant

twitter.com/higginsdavidw/status/1246757728648867840?s=21

There's something calming about this analysis- thank you

Ooh, sorry Life I said NI when you were talking about 1.

Nonetheless the observation seems similar to the dr in Wales.

I find it somehow both concerning and calming Neuro - it’s a shitty situation but we really do have some amazing people doing their absolute best to take care of us all.

This really is a war effort.

Our army is our nhs.