Worried About Coronavirus- thread 36

[TheStarryNight]

New thread

Spain 809 deaths reported in Sky

Sorry I haven't been on the post for a while. It's scary reading the numbers when you are suspected of having it yourself.
Does anyone know the answer to why Italy are still seeing high numbers when we are told we are unlikely to pick it up social distancing and on parcels etc?
Is it still a lag from pre lockdown or are people catching it at the shops?
Can you @ me in response so I don't have to read the thread?
Just makes my anxiety soar which isn't good for this dreadful breathlessness.

I don't get the Spain figures.
Worldometer always reports them a lot lower than other sources.

twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1246358936585986048?s=09

They've only just requested unity now. So much for it not being Boris's show up to now.

Do actual breakdown in age tables exist for the Diamond Princess?
Just wondering because I was talking to dp about cruises, and it's not something I've ever thought about, but culturally, cruise customers in Italy are not the same as the UK- in that cruises are popular in Italy NOT among the older generations but the opposite. In fact, thinking about it, I know loads of my students go on cruises, and they are all teenagers.

Italian lunchtime news just starting: headline is "infection numbers are steadily dropping but mustn't be complacent"

@ofwarren I hope your health continues to improve. Whilst the number of deaths in Italy remains high, they are seeing lower new cases so working to flatten the curve. Deaths will still be high I assume as many of those were infected prior to the tighter lockdowns.

Doesn't Worldometer get its numbers from other sources? Since it told us there were only 20 seriously ill people in the whole of the UK and that number didn't change for 8 days I've not looked at it much.

Boris's letter is highly politically timed.

*I don't get the Spain figures. Worldometer always reports them a lot lower than other sources.”

Report will be from previous day. Worldometer will show figures released today so far. Spain seems to release its figures in two batches, one in the morning with another in the evening, so the figures so far are only those from the first batch.

Yes I used to think cruise holidays = retired people but have 40 year old couples and families I know who take cruise holidays and they say it's a real mix of ages. Maybe some cruises are specifically aimed at certain age groups?

I cant find anything on the ages overall but this is ages of those who contracted it on board

@ofwarren

Does anyone know the answer to why Italy are still seeing high numbers when we are told we are unlikely to pick it up social distancing and on parcels etc?

Is it still a lag from pre lockdown or are people catching it at the shops?

Yes. For example, people moved from North to South. Then had a delay before they showed symptoms. Then they gave it to family members who took time to show symptoms. Plus there are key workers still working and passing it between each other and their families.

So people are still getting it, but at a lower transmission rate.

It's possible to get it from going to the shops (especially if people are coughing all over the place) but it's much more likely to be from families and work contact that is still continuing.

It's theoretically possible that if you have a family of 5 if you all catch it 5 days apart you are going to get a much longer delay.

And of course you have the rule breakers who are getting infected too. I believe that in some places this was a significant minority of people in the earlier stages of lockdown, hence why they tightened it up.

You also have problems like hospital transmission in areas which were previously less affected. Or places where people live in very close proximity.

What's happening is in line with what you would expect to see - a slow decline rather than a fast crash in the number of cases.

Hope that's reassuring.

Hope you are feeling better ofwarren.
I'm on day 4 of 'something' and agree it's quite scary when you fall ill.

@ofwarren

Does anyone know the answer to why Italy are still seeing high numbers when we are told we are unlikely to pick it up social distancing and on parcels etc?

I don’t know for sure, but even in Italy, social distancing can’t be practiced 100%. Medics will still be getting it from patients, who then pass it to their families. Social care workers will pass it to those they are caring for, and vice versa etc. etc. so it will take a while to tail off, especially when you consider that a significant proportion of people won’t develop symptoms for more than a week after being infected, and will then often take a further week to get to the point of being ill enough to be admitted to hospital and tested.

There will then be a lag in the figures reported too. The tests reported probably relate to tests actually carried out a few days previously (time for results to come back, and then more time to filter through into official figures).

@middleager yes it is.
I can't bear these type threads at the moment.
Fingers crossed you get the very mild symptoms

Thank you @Derbygerbil that makes sense.
We aren't leaving the house at all at the moment and will continue to stay in as we get priority food delivery from the supermarket.
Even getting mail is so worrying.

@ofwarren

Another factor is that incubation time varies. Average time is 5 days, but as with all averages, there is an underlying range of shorter and longer periods. So it varies from 2-14 days in most cases.

And then there are outliers- incubation periods of 19, 24 and 27 days have been reported.

Then the time it takes to get sick enough to need hospitalization and also to succumb also vary in a similar way.

And the virus can travel further in some cases than the 2m social distance recommended.

That makes sense.
Thanks @TheStarryNight

Thanks ofwarren you too.

I would echo the incubation period timings that they could be much longer.

My son went skiing in Italy during half term. He returned Feb 22.

He came down with a fever 25 days later. Of course, he could have picked this 'virus' up at school in between.

14 days later and my symptoms started. I was the one who tended to him during his fever and sickness. As he's nearly 14 though he didn't want me around much, so IF he had it and IF I have it, hoping the viral load was lower.

Oh, and just to add more confusion, his twin (the asthmatic one) had 'cold type' symptoms and fever the week before DS2 was ill!

It's so woolly though due to lack of testing and general bugs.
Though we are so rarely ill, which is the potential red flag for me.

Thanks for cruise breakdown- I guess that's probably true, that some are aimed at the older traveller and some at families etc.

We are all hoping for stronger controls over Easter- it's such an important holiday here- more so than Christmas that people are going to release their inner twats and go out and about. Already today, because it's the day before Palm Sunday, dp said the supermarkets are rammed.

Local news just said my region is trying out "quick tests"

Can recommend this free weekly email newsletter, here is the one for this week:
tinyletter.com/IanLeslie/letters/i-will-lay-me-down

Yes its so difficult we have had something in the household I had back pain I know to be my lungs, tiredness, cough and my DD had an awful cough and tightness across the chest. We both couldnt do much without getting out of breath

I would like to know what it was!

Watford general a&e closed until further notice. Very worrying as a major unit and would imagine last resort to close like this.