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Worried About Coronavirus- thread 36

962 replies

TheStarryNight · 03/04/2020 17:17

New thread

OP posts:
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37
MurrayTheMonk · 04/04/2020 07:08

I think we should all have been wearing masks from the beginning. But they knew even weeks ago there weren't enough.

I've got a day off today!! Which is good because I had about two gins last night, and having not drink for a month, and being v tired I was hammered and have woken up with a huge hangover. For once pleased I can't be made to go anywhere today!!

Eeyoresstickhouse · 04/04/2020 07:17

Has anyone else noticed that the covid19 app by Kings now includes a question about whether you take regular blood pressure medication? This is new since yesterday. Has made me very worried for my husband. What do they know about the medication?

Ciwirocks · 04/04/2020 07:30

This article from the lancet might help explain Eeyore www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30158-2/fulltext

Eeyoresstickhouse · 04/04/2020 07:37

ciwirocks thank you for that article. That one seems to of passed me by! I had seen the previous Lancet one. I am going to get him to make a gp appt.

MollyButton · 04/04/2020 07:50

The most rational reason I've seen put forward against recommending masks is there is a danger that if you are wearing a mask and unused to it then you could start touching your face more. Which would be worse than having no mask.

Gfplux · 04/04/2020 07:52

I agree this weekend with better weather will see a large number of people (idiots) out and about in parks and open spaces.
If the weather continues to be warm then the Easter weekend could be a disaster.
The criticism of the police has made them back off as in some areas they were following what the politicians were saying and not the law as it stands.
In other country’s the isolation is much more strongly enforced.
In France for example people are FORBIDDEN to travel during this Easter period when many with holiday homes or with family in other parts of the country would be travelling.
This is being strongly monitored with police stopping all cars at the toll stations and anyone without good reason are fined (€134 per person) and turned back. All clearly shown last night on French TV, FR2

Gfplux · 04/04/2020 07:55

France
I should have added that people are encouraged to report if the see the arrival of holiday home owners or members of extended family’s doing the same.
This is a crisis and in Britain is full of half measures.

Coquohvan · 04/04/2020 08:02

Noticed Worldometers have added tests columns now.

ifonly4 · 04/04/2020 08:21

I posted on some of the earlier threads. With so many threads on the subject, I can't keep up with it all. Also, need a break to do/think about other things. Still lurking though as and when. We're well here, but my DD and I have lost someone we know to this awful virus this week, so all the more reason to follow government guidelines and anything I feel is helpful from the threads.

Jrobhatch29 · 04/04/2020 08:24

t.co/XbPdlu2xhJ?amp=1

This is an interesting follow up to the diamond princess. Suggests 30% remained asymptomatic by end of observation period, 45% were mild and the rest were severe. Obviously skewed towards the elderly as well x

Newbeginnings2 · 04/04/2020 08:31

Had this email yesterday, you can now buy these tests online (just for HCP and businesses) not sure how accurate they are

Worried About Coronavirus- thread 36
thesunwillout · 04/04/2020 08:37

Already hearing of people turning up to beaches, families in a car asking where they can go and play football.
A campervan containing a family and all the holiday paraphernalia.
There's nowhere to park that, campsites are closed.
We're not allowed to use the beaches, we're trapped in our homes, why in earth do people think it's ok for them.
Please, go home and come back when this is over.
From Devon

RedToothBrush · 04/04/2020 08:55

Lewis Goodall @lewis_goodall
What's going on in social care? (thread)

I spent the day in Hove, talking to social care providers and relatives of those in care.

Everyone knew that this was a sector in crisis before. It's still in crisis but now with a lot of fear thrown in. #COVID19

First, the relatives.

Virtually all care homes are on lockdown. Family visitation isn't permitted. None of the elderly residents can see their families.

This is bad but not nearly as bad as what happens if someone in the care home has Covid.

If someone in a care home has Covid 19, then managers I've spoken to say they're unlikely to be taken to hospital.

I spoke to a care home provider today who has been told that by those responsible for local health administration.

If they die from the disease, they will do so at the home, without family.

This happened to Guisseppe, who died last Monday.

His daughter, Gisella, told me she and her family hadn't seen him for 2.5 weeks-that to be robbed of those final days and hours "a chance to hold his hand was heartbreaking."

They now have to have a socially distant funeral in a few days.

How is Covid 19 getting into care homes? Through staff.

This is where lack of testing is a real problem.

With so many staff self isolating, agency staff are becoming more and more common. Those staff could be working in multiple care homes. Spreading covid.

More testing would help ameliorate that problem- by testing those agency staff frequently and by testing their permanent staff who are unsure whether they have the disease.

However, with NHS staff not getting tested, social care is even further down the pecking order.

Social care is also suffering from a PPE shortage. It's got slightly better in the last couple of weeks but it remains a big problem. One care home I visited today has just received a delivery but it'll last two weeks, with no idea when they can get more.

Residents who have dementia are finding the experience of being more or less confined to their rooms especially problematic- they're not really capable of understanding what is going on.

Residents who have dementia are finding the experience of being more or less confined to their rooms especially problematic- they're not really capable of understanding what is going on.

Staff I've spoken to say that every day "feels like a ticking time bomb right now". They know that if the disease hits, it'll spread like wild fire (one home in Hove has 16 of 20 residents infected). And if it is they're the ones who will likely have to treat them.

Care homes have therefore being tasked with two enormous challenges 1) treating the very sick for #covid19 for which staff (often on minimum wage) have no medical training 2) to in effect manage end of life and become hospices. Again, this is not what they're designed for.

Care homes have therefore being tasked with two enormous challenges 1) treating the very sick for #covid19 for which staff (often on minimum wage) have no medical training 2) to in effect manage end of life and become hospices. Again, this is not what they're designed for.

DNR forms are filled out in social care regularly but as @peterkyle says this now seems to be being done, in Hove anyway, "en masse". The suspicion of Kyle and the manager, is that this is authorities managing the disease and easing care/hospital resources at end of life.

The care managers say that these forms are reaching families, precisely at a time when they're emotionally vulnerable and that that is a problem.

Care managers also worry that by asking older people about whether they would like to be resuscitated, in this context, that some are opting to do so because they don't wish to be a burden.

What’s clear, is that social care is in effect being asked to become part of the NHS, to provide things the state would normally provide but without the the resources and the scale that the state brings. It's a unique challenge for a sector which was already in a perilous state.

If you want to learn more, tune into Newsnight now, my piece will be on shortly.

END THREAD

In case you missed it, my report from Newsnight on the #covid19 social care crisis can be viewed here:
t.co/IhZCphKDmu

Peter Foster @pmdfoster
This is a powerful thread about how social care world is becoming an (even closer) adjunct to the NHS during #Coronavirus #COVID2019 epidemic. It raises some important and difficult questions. 1/

The first is about frankness with the public.

NHS doctors on Covid frontlines are clear that these patients would almost certainly not get ventilated in hospital.

Even now, before the peak, am told prioritisation is already strong. Those with best shot get to ITU /2

This is not a random process - there are guidelines and score charts and ethical committees making evidence-based decisions.

But, per doc, estimate mortality of vented patients is around 50% - and the over 70s have much worse chances. See this on deaths by age from Times.

Worried About Coronavirus- thread 36
woodencoffeetable · 04/04/2020 08:57

are there any discussions in politics on how to go on?

there seems to be little (public) information on moving manufacturing of masks to uk/europe. or medicines for that matter. many many active substances are manufactured in china or india. hardly any in europe (incl uk)

MollyButton · 04/04/2020 08:59

This is a really interesting article on why there is so much uncertainty in the models. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-its-so-freaking-hard-to-make-a-good-covid-19-model/

woodencoffeetable · 04/04/2020 09:00

masks mandatory in one city in germany

they are also asking anyone with a sewing machine to make some for themselves and for others who can't sew.

RedToothBrush · 04/04/2020 09:02

www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/coronavirus-adviser-pm-wants-herd-21811857.amp?__twitter_impression=true
Coronavirus adviser to PM wants 'herd immunity' considered again to end lockdown
Professor Graham Medley, of Imperial College London, says the UK has 'painted itself into a corner' and that lockdown could cause more harm than coronavirus itself

The UK may need to reconsider a “herd immunity” strategy to defeat coronavirus, a senior adviser to the Prime Minister has warned.

Professor Graham Medley of Imperial College London, the government’s chief pandemic modeller, says the country has “painted itself into a corner” as it battles the deadly bug with no clear exit plan.

He said the UK needed to face the trade-off between harming the young versus the old.

Describing the stark choices facing the government, he says that long, indefinite periods of lockdown could cause more harm than the virus itself by leading to soaring unemployment, domestic violence, food poverty and mental illness.

Speaking to the Times, Professor Medley said: “We will have done three weeks of this lockdown so there’s a big decision coming up on April 13.

"In broad terms are we going to continue to harm children to protect vulnerable people, or not?

This is the original article as quoted above, but it is paywalled
www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnsons-coronavirus-adviser-calls-for-a-way-out-of-lockdown-rd58g6tc9
Boris Johnson’s coronavirus adviser calls for a way out of lockdown
Britain may still need to adopt herd immunity

Eyes on this. We are going to be prepared for this psychologically I suspect

Flute56 · 04/04/2020 09:10

ok this weekend people will be seen in open spaces. What do you mean by that exactly? I have just been out to the shop on the corner because when I went out yesterday I forgot to buy bread. The walk to the shop with a brisk walk is 3 minutes. I went to the shop and saw two people inside so I waited outside the door. There was nobody else waiting. One person came out and the other person went to pay. I still stood outside because in order to get in you have to pass the person paying. When that person had finished and the sop was empty, I went in, went straight to the bread and went straight to pay for it and was straight out again and another three minutes walk back home. Obviously the walk to the shop and back was in an open space but according to someone I was speaking to last night, I should not even be doing that because I could end up dead. I told the person she was over reacting and she said it is your life but I would not risk it. As I was walking back from the shop there was a woman jogging. I suppose she will be dead too because she was out jogging when she should not have been.

How do you convince people who are over anxious about all this and I do not see that I put myself in any danger for a three minute walk to the sop and back

RedToothBrush · 04/04/2020 09:16

there seems to be little (public) information on moving manufacturing of masks to uk/europe. or medicines for that matter. many many active substances are manufactured in china or india. hardly any in europe (incl uk)

BBC ran a story the other day about British manufacturers of clothing and similar (particularly sports equipment) having the skills set to produce PPE. Some were starting to be used but others which had tried to contact the government to volunteer their skills hadn't had a response and remained closed.

In terms of drug production we are in a better position than some other countries because we do manufacture more drugs than other others (pharmaceuticals are one of our biggest exports). So we do have the infrastructure to manufacture but not necessarily the raw materials. I have a couple of friends who work at a major pharmaceutical company and they are still at work and have been given certification to show they are workers who are essential and need to travel to work (clue that we may yet face a greater lockdown there). They are being incredibly strict about who is on site and how they keep the workforce healthy. I think they have been upping production to but whether this includes expanding the range of drugs I don't know.

There is also a legal ban on exporting many drugs to the grey market where brands are exported in exchange for imported cheap generic non branded alternatives. This is because there is a risk that imports will stop or be hijacked (the US has intercepted a number of PPE deliveries destined for other countries en route. The Germans are particularly angry at how this has been done calling it a form of modern day piracy). This is more expensive for the NHS and isn't a complete export ban but it does help to ensure supply is more guaranteed.

There are things in the works but as we've seen with a few other things there seem to be common communication breakdowns between industry and the government, with businesses wanting to help and even offering services but not being asked to help. This could be merely a question of the goverment being so overwhelmed with the sheer number of things that need doing that oversights are happening and the ability to check that business can deliver what is needed to spec isn't there.

Time is the one thing we don't have and the government did waste what we did have in the initial stages of this. I think they are getting better but still a long way to go.

RedToothBrush · 04/04/2020 09:28

Obviously the walk to the shop and back was in an open space but according to someone I was speaking to last night, I should not even be doing that because I could end up dead. I told the person she was over reacting and she said it is your life but I would not risk it. As I was walking back from the shop there was a woman jogging. I suppose she will be dead too because she was out jogging when she should not have been.

There is a risk going to the shop. There is also a risk in not going to the shop.

See the man who was so scared he went without food for 10 days and then died.

It's not about eliminating all risk. It's about managing risk and keeping it to the lowest possible level.

There is a risk involved in failing to exercise, failing to get vitamin D from sunshine and eating poorly from lack of healthy supplies in terms of your health and therefore ability to fight the disease if you should get it AND your general health in terms of OTHER conditions.

Covid-19 is not the only risk to your health is the point.

Doctors are already reporting that some people who need to see a doctor or go to a & e for other conditions are risking their lives by not doing so because they are so scared by covid-19.

The flip to this, is people recklessly setting off fireworks at 8pm Thursday or going to the beach in Devon this weekend or going shopping for gardening equipment and visiting the shops on a daily basis rather than trying to minimise trips.

Tbh I don't think you can argue with people who have worked themselves up into a state because they are thinking emotionally rather than thinking logically. Emotional thinking can have a protective affect but you need to manage that and understand when it's taking over and ignoring reason.

You have to learn how this works and what to do to combat it.

Common sense and thinking about management of risk is something that sadly a majority (including very intelligent people) seem to struggle to do.

There's a lot to be said for teaching the concept at school as a life skill.

Flute56 · 04/04/2020 09:48

Yes you are right so the person I was arguing with or trying to reason with was talking emotionally not logically. I do not think I put myself in any danger this morning. I did not go near anyone except the shop owner at the till. I immediately washed my hand very thoroughly when I got home and apart from waiting to get into the shop I got there and back as quickly asp possible. 3 minutes there and 3 minutes back and about a minute in the shop and about 5 minutes waiting outside until it was safe to go in. I also kept away from the jogger on the way back. I think people are so worried they think anything is unsafe.

RedToothBrush · 04/04/2020 09:48

Pippa crear @pippacrear
Matt Hancock, Thursday: We’ll have 100,000 tests by the end of April.

UK industry, Saturday: “The target is his target that he set without any consultation with industry. While we’ll do everything we can to help meet it... we can’t make any promises.”

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/well-struggle-to-hit-100-000-coronavirus-tests-a-day-say-firms-sxc2ck5w6
We’ll struggle to hit 100,000 coronavirus tests a day, say firms

Testing manufacturers have said they were blindsided by the government’s promise to carry out 100,000 tests a day as they warned the target is unlikely to be met because of global shortages.

The head of the trade body for the diagnostics industry said Matt Hancock, the health secretary, had made no mention of specific targets in a meeting on Wednesday evening, meaning they were unaware of the ambitious pledge made at a press conference the following day.

TheStarryNight · 04/04/2020 09:49

Why What We Think We Know About The UK’s Coronavirus Death Toll Is Wrong

Interesting article from the Guardian looking at things like time lags.

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 04/04/2020 10:12

amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/03/matt-hancock-government-policy-herd-immunity-community-surveillance-covid-19?__twitter_impression=true
Despite what Matt Hancock says, the government's policy is still herd immunity
Anthony Costello

(Anthony Costello is professor of global health at UCL, and former director of maternal and child health at the World Health Organization)

Derbygerbil · 04/04/2020 10:44

This is an interesting follow up to the diamond princess. Suggests 30% remained asymptomatic by end of observation period, 45% were mild and the rest were severe. Obviously skewed towards the elderly as well

Interesting... A couple of observations. Whereas those on the cruise were older than average, they were also likely to have been relatively fit. (Sick people don’t tend to go on cruises), so those affected weren’t “those who were going to be dead in a year anyway!”

Also, the asymptomatic people were not as high as I would have hoped and over a quarter had severe symptoms - a large proportion given it wouldn’t have included the sickest in that age group.

If anything this study reinforces how seriously we need to treat this. If we hadn’t have sought to suppress it, the NHS would have been swamped and most of the 1/4+ of 60/70/80s with those severe symptoms wouldn’t be able to have had treatment.... many of those would have therefore died. Across the whole population the numbers would have been staggering.