Worried About Coronavirus- thread 36

[TheStarryNight]

New thread

@Hugglespuffed People have been working on a vaccine since as early as January in the US. There are many different companies all in the race also. It would be optimistic that one could be available that quick but who knows they may get lucky.

www.biospace.com/article/the-covid-19-vaccine-challenge-timelines-and-innovation/

Yes I get quite cross when they talk about the infection rate slowing down.

If the rate of infection was still increasing faster than it was before we went into lockdown I’d be very concerned! Infections will be increasing still, but the number of new people being infected daily was still increasing it would be utterly catastrophic!

Saying rates of infection are decreasing isn’t the same as saying things are getting back to normal, just saying things are getting worse at an accelerating rate!

aren’t getting worse...

Are they still saying the death rate is about 3%? Has that changed now we know more? I haven't read anything since the Chinese study 2 months ago. It keeps climbing on worldometers, I remember it got down to about 6% with China supposedly getting it under control but ever since it exploded in Italy it has been gradually climbing and is now at 22% I know a lot of people don't get tested etc but gradually climbing to now be at 22% does that not mean it must be a lot higher than 3% but AFAIK it hasn't officially changed? I know they can only estimate and that it won't be anywhere near as high as 22% but 3% still seems very low. Also the rate of infection seems much higher than first thought it seems incredibly infections but last thing I read the average person only passes it onto 2-3 people?

I work in a care home. 13 March I started self-isolation with my DD11 (and DS5) as she had a new cough. Two weeks of isolation, then I went back to work for my two days I was working that week. Kids went to school, that was fine. They then saw their dad, who's a nurse, on the Sun/Mon. They came back on the Monday, then on the Thursday DS got a temperature and was upset and listless.
I was due in work the following day and so called in to say DS had symptoms and so we were back in isolation.
I reached that decision because I rang 111, who did advise to isolate again. They put me through to a healthcare
professional, I had a proper conversation with her and explained my confusion, as we all know about the timeline diagram thingy regarding the timeline - at the end of the 14 days all household members are meant to be clear and immune, right?

The person I spoke to said that because new symptoms had appeared in the household after the end of the previous isolation period, we needed to repeat.

To me, this makes sense, as without testing my daughter we can't know that she did have it, so it could be that DS's symptoms are related to Covid and hers were not.

Added into the mix is the fact that their dad NOW tells me that he has been working on the Covid ward and dealing with patients who have died. Then 4 days after seeing him, DS gets a fever. I'm still working on how I feel about that.

My work are being very 'inquisitive' about the fact I've already had a period of isolation with DD and am off again with DS. But without testing, it's impossible to tell whether either of them have it or have had it.

Can anyone explain to me what the hell is going on in the video of the Duke and duchess of Cambridge with the kids in the school with the bunny ears on. There is a man in the background also wearing bunny ears and it's just the creepiest thing I've seen in ages!

My work are being very 'inquisitive' about the fact I've already had a period of isolation with DD and am off again with DS

Sadly the usual "sicknotes" at work are using the self isolation guidance to take the piss, going off for 14 days, coming back for a day or two and then claiming that another family member has got symptoms so they need to isolate for another 14 days. All the while posting on Facebook and clearly not staying at home. People who take advantage of the situation to shirk work make it hard for genuine people to be believed

You are doing the right thing.work can be inquisitive all they like. If you went in with it, and infected the service users and half the staff team they wouldn't be happy would they? Even with my staffing situation I've told team to err on the side of caution and follow the advice given to the nth degree.

@NetDesMamans1 Exactly! Due to lack of testing there's no way of knowing so your isolation starts again.

@Katie2017 I think it's impossible to give an accurate death rate due to the lack of testing. They can give a rate based on those tested but only a guess as to the actual rate.

Is there a thread where any practical advice had been collated? I think I think we need one.

Obviously preventative, eg cleaning, washing and isolation.

I have seen advice on breathing. I'd there anything else I missed?

@Ladyellow

It’s so hard to watch them clearly struggling isn’t it. My little one has a nearly 2 year old brother but their play is still on very different levels. It took me ages to get him settled into nursery but he has really started to enjoy it and thrive there. God knows how I’m going to get him into school in September if they don’t end up going back in the meantime. I had the option to keep him in nursery as husband is a key worker and MIL felt very strongly this was the right thing knowing his character but it just didn’t sit right with me sending him out while I was at home. I just hope it doesn’t have any long term effect.

Yes I'm also getting very concerned about the death rate.
I think because 15% need hospital and another 5% icu. So for any cases where say 100 people have it but those 20 people
couldn't get to hospital
Had no beds
Didn't get there fast enough.

I've been looking at timelines and it looks like there are certain days. Which would have been helpful to know and ideally you would have people in hospital from as soon as they start to get breathless.
Because it seems the 5% icu have maybe only 50/50 chance.
I guess the big q is whether there is this iceberg of asymptomatic but immune people. Because if the truth is actually 20% need hospital.
What tests are Germany using if they can process so many?
I see other sites have started doing their nightingales. They must expect some increase in Bristol area as it said that would open on 20th apr.

The BRI remains fairly “quiet” in a Bristol... busy enough but nowhere near what had been expected - only 13 people in ITU which has been very surprising. The Covid admissions have also been pretty level for the past 5 days. I don’t know about the other hospital in Bristol as much but my understanding is it’s similar with their ITU being even quieter. There’s some confusion about the pushing ahead with the nightingale hospital here as the southwest has the lowest numbers and the predicted peak in Bristol is Sunday. However it is for the whole of the southwest and I guess the peak is just that- there will still be lots of cases coming in everyday after for many weeks and many having quite lengthy admissions.

Bet IDS has developed a regular twitch by now at the thought of so many people not working.

That's interesting re Bristol. though as me and dp started a cough last Sat we hopefully will not be needIng the facilities if they will peak on sunday. We currently don't have fevers though. So not sure what chance that gives that this isn't covid. (Started sore throat then dry cough. Then dp headache today. Though we have both already moved into more phlegmy coughs.

However it makes little sense as we haven't been out the house for I think 4w now. But did have a supermarket delivery on the 31/03. Though I guess if that's when peak is the maximum number of people were contagious (and possibly touching or coughing on stuff in store so even though I wiped it down that may not have made much difference.)

However dd had a fever then cough starting 29/02. (We hadn't been abroad). It's incredibly strange as we have got this at the same time and yet I would think if from the kids we would be separated by days it was more like hours.

Oh my god you think you caught it.from shopping you disinfected ? Or the delivery person

I'm not going to work out side again after this unless it's a really good job. I hope everyone else does this too and change work

HelenaDove, I saw a meme that said that IDS had declared BJ Fit For Work

I honestly don't know. We've caught something.
We haven't even gone on walks! Last went out with kids (soft play party though )7th march. Sore throat 4th April.
Whilst understand some things have long incubation it seem s unlikely dp and I would both get ill if a normal incubation is 5days. Up to 20 something but it's less than 3% of cases.
Possibly the kids have given each other something then we got it??
But anyway I certainly think while possibly unlikely it's not impossible to have got it from delivery person or the goods or from post though again I've been pretty careful.

My local hospital has just had several refrigerated trucks delivered. They’re obviously expecting this to get worse before it gets better.

Honestly I worry every time I open the door, I usually try to reassure myself its fine though. It's good you have no temperature

www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/apr/09/nsw-police-raid-ruby-princess-to-seize-evidence-and-question-crew-about-coronavirus-scandal?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_b-gdnnews&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1586391057

NSW police raid Ruby Princess to seize black box and question crew about coronavirus scandal
The vessel is expected to remain at Port Kembla for 10 days while 1,040 crew members undergo medical assessments

Detectives have raided the Ruby Princess cruise ship to seize its black box and question crew members about the docking and disembarkation of passengers in Sydney three weeks ago.

The vessel has been linked to hundreds of Covid-19 cases and more than a dozen deaths across Australia.

NSW detectives wearing personal protective equipment boarded the vessel at Port Kembla on Wednesday night to gather evidence about how hundreds of passengers aboard were allowed to leave the ship on 19 March.

“Strike Force Bast investigators are conducting inquiries on-board the Ruby Princess this evening,” NSW Police said in a statement.

“The operation is being conducted under the strictest health and workplace safety guidelines.”

Is Australia flattening the coronavirus curve? Your questions on testing and community transmission answered
Read more
The NSW police commissioner, Mick Fuller, said officers seized a black box “very similar to that of international planes” and other evidence. He said the ship’s captain had been extremely helpful.

Fuller also said the majority of the ship’s crew wanted to remain on the ship, which he described as a “good outcome”.

“I can confirm there’s still over 1,000 crew members on the ship. We’re working closely with [the ship’s owners] Carnival.

Three-quarters at this stage say they want to remain on the ship. They feel safe on the ship and I think that’s a good outcome.”

He said people had dropped off a number of care packages at the port for the crew members, “which I think speaks volumes for the local community”.

In coming days police will interview other high-priority witnesses about the scandal, while the vessel is expected to remain at Port Kembla for 10 days with 1,040 crew members undergoing medical assessments.

About 200 crew have shown symptoms of coronavirus, while 18 crew have so far tested positive.

Questions remain over who is responsible for the Ruby Princess fiasco.

The Australian Border Force confirmed overnight it had been engaged in discussions with the Port Authority about the Ruby Princess before it docked in Sydney.

The ABF said it received a call from the NSW Port Authority hours before the vessel was due to dock, in which it expressed “concern” about the health of passengers.

The ABF said on Wednesday that NSW Health had cleared the ship to dock.

“The ABF officer made internal enquiries and subsequently advised the NSW Port Authority that the vessel had been cleared by NSW Health,” the agency said in a statement.

The Sydney Morning Herald and the Age have reported that an ABF officer told a Sydney harbour master to allow the ship to dock.

Meanwhile, new Covid-19 infections continue to stabilise with NSW recording only 39 new cases on Thursday, taking the state’s total to 2,773.

There are 31 people in intensive care and the death toll remains at 21.

The premier, Gladys Berejiklian, welcomed the stabilisation and decline of new cases but warned community transmission was still increasing.

She said that while social distancing would be necessary until a coronavirus vaccine or cure is found, restrictions are being reviewed on a month-by-month basis.

She reminded people to adhere to restrictions, which are having a positive effect, as authorities keep a watchful eye on increasing community transmission.

NSW Health says there are 36 travellers currently in hotel quarantine who have tested positive to Covid-19, and 121 quarantined travellers showing coronavirus symptoms.

The first group of 288 Australians quarantined at the Swissotel in Sydney’s CBD were released on Wednesday morning, with police planning for further departures when some 3,000 Australian residents are expected to leave hotel isolation over the next week

twitter.com/lindasgrant/status/1247773642051575811?s=20

Linda Grant
@lindasgrant
·
19h
Friends in Cornwall reporting the arrival of second home owners for the Easter break. Like angels of death riding Chelsea tractors

" Health Secretary's promise to dramatically ramp up coronavirus tests to 100,000 a day has been thrown into doubt after NHS leaders told him their testing targets were "jam tomorrow".

@Hugglespuffed I think a vaccine before earliest mid-next year is unrealistic.
There's a better chance of a drug for treatment though. There are several trials going on at the moment, which could help a lot if they lead to fewer people needing ICU. Most of these trials are using existing drugs, marketed for something else, that show evidence of being good for reducing the covid pneumonia etc. So they have already been safety tested, and they can concentrate on seeing how well they work.for

But a vaccine will be new and therefore need to undergo extensive safety testing first. Many vaccines are 'live', so if they use that type they need to make sure it doesn't make people worse (I believe that has been an issue when they were looking for a SARS vaccine). It will be given to billions so they need to certain about safety - long-term as well as immediate - and those trials just can't be rushed for obvious reasons.
There's also the scale-up. Some of the vaccines currently being looked at are using a new DNA/RNA technology instead of a live virus - but there are no existing vaccines using this technology so if it works, that would need to manufactured as well as the vaccine.