Worried About Coronavirus- thread 36

[TheStarryNight]

New thread

If it is true, which it may not be, it may not be in the figures for a week yet...

Yes that’s what I meant in caveat bit was a bit woolly

I get you

My tfl email says Tube use is down by 95%

Just heard an old friends mum has died of covid19. I am so sad for her. Just a horrible fucking time for everyone.

I also read a couple of days ago that a 3 year old had died of CV. I’m sure it was in the Guardian live feed on Sunday maybe.

If anyone is looking for any extra support during this time, I have found a charity called My Pickle providing lots of helpful resources and advice for families, including mental health support for adults and young people, and grief and loss support.
This is such a scary time so I thought I'd recommend a resource that has personally helped me in my situation and might do the same for others.
Stay safe all x

Yes I saw it. He was 5.

I did hear the five year old report, which was very sad. But not any other as yet (ie 3) maybe a mix up.

Figures are late again...

Incubation period may be longer than 14 days for a significant minority of people (previous China study showing 95% showing symptoms within 12 days may be an underestimation).
mobile.twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1247206316814336002

Imperial’s Neil Ferguson: “We don’t have a clear exit strategy”
ftalphaville.ft.com/2020/04/04/1586015208000/Imperial-s-Neil-Ferguson---We-don-t-have-a-clear-exit-strategy-/

758 deaths in England.

Oh no.

I think that Monday dip Tuesday rise is becoming more obvious to see. That is a jump.

NHS England has just released its latest figures for coronavirus deaths in hospitals in England. In a statement it said:

A further 758 people, who tested positive for the coronavirus (Covid-19) have died, bringing the total number of confirmed reported deaths in hospitals in England to 5,655.

Patients were aged between 23 and 102 years old. 29 of the 758 patients (aged between 23 and 99 years old) had no known underlying health condition.

Yesterday the figure for new coronavirus deaths in hospitals in England was 403, but the large difference between that figure and today’s may be partly explained by the delay in the reporting of some deaths that occurred over the weekend.

same in NL (dip/jump)
yesterday it was 110 today 234.

poor people.

I am being told that the death rate in the Uk is about the same as it usually is, even with Coronavirus. Can anyone help explain this, if it is true?

Exponential growth would quickly change this as it speeds up and numbers double every few days - eg
600
1200
2400
4800
9600
19800
40600
81200
162400

Yes Marsha the public, led by the media, seem to get optimistic on Mondays, when we know the Tuesday sucker punch is coming.

I wish the media would combat this. The Monday headlines give false hope.

Bloomberg News: Italy may start a gradual end of its coronavirus lockdown on May 4, local media reports.

www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-06/u-s-deaths-top-10-000-some-signs-of-easing-toll-virus-update

From the ONS twitter feed:

A total of 11,141 deaths were registered in England and Wales in the “week ending March 27”. This represents an increase of 496 deaths registered compared with the previous week and 1,011 more than the five-year average ow.ly/IZd630qvXac

Of these, 539 mentioned "novel coronavirus (COVID-19)", which is 4.8% of all deaths ow.ly/IUuO30qvXb9

So the death rate is being increased by Covid.

twitter.com/ons/status/1247443057324306432?s=21

Do those figures make this the worst day for the UK? What were Spain and Italy's worst figures? Not that it makes any difference, it's all appalling, but just curious.

@DtPeabodysLoosePants

Italy recorded 919 deaths on 27/3 - so 11 days ago
Spain recorded 961 deaths on 2/4

We will likely surpass both of those totals if we are allegedly 2 weeks behind Italy and already reporting 758 in England plus 74 is Scotland and 19 in Wales.

That's 851 without N Ireland. There will be a weekend catch up in there but it's still high.

No they don’t if you look at the pattern of reporting deaths since this began their is always a dip over the weekend. Tuesdays are consistently a big increase but if you look at this one it is not much more than Fridays figure. As the predicted surge will be over the next ten days we need to wait to see if the exponential curve is taking off. The longer it is taking the more likely it is flattening off.

Sorry ignore my post misread figures thought they were for Uk not just England.