563 dead today, is this our peak?

[Whitefeather01]

Surely we have to be close to peaking??

[Eyewhisker]

The Chief medical officer thinks that half to two-thirds of the people dying would have died within a few months. So one-third to half are additional, and others are brought forward

[AmelieTaylor]

@mrssunshinexxx. I’m all for welding the fuckers inside who aren’t taking it seriously & staying at home voluntarily.

[Vaginandtonic]

For the love of actual Christ, could people please just stop pulling numbers out of their arse and posting them on these threads.

[mrssunshinexxx]

@NotDavidTennant that's my thoughts
I will stay in lockdown as long as we are told happily to save lives it's simple really but we need The government to implement stricter measures like yesterday!! And more testing !

[quiteathome]

No

[DiscordandRhyme]

Peak in about 7-10 days time.

After around 2 weeks it will slowly level out.

Peak looking to be 1000-1200 deaths per day, sadly.

[BeetrootRocks]

Amelie we don't execute people in the UK, thankfully.

Be careful what you wish for.

[mrssunshinexxx]

@AmelieTaylor same !!!

[BeetrootRocks]

Jesus Christ

People have gone mad

[londonrach]

Nope, sadly not. Another week to go at least then be around same number for a few days or a week.

[Devlesko]

Peak in June is just impossible we cannot go on like this for 12 weeks

Then, carry on with your life making sure you don't infect others when you catch it, then.

[GlacindaTheTroll]

"So one-third to half are additional"

So that's about 600-900 people who were not expected to die soon (total reported deaths just under 1800)

[BolloxtoGender]

If 20,000 deaths with CV19 is considered a 'good' outcome, then I think when total death reaches 10,000 , it will start climb down that hill.

[WhyNotMe40]

Well if you look at the facts as publicised by WHO and other reputable sources ..

Mean onset of symptoms from infection is 5 days.
Mean time of symptoms to death is 21 days. (Ish)

So time from infection to death is about 3-4 weeks. We were locked down about a week ago. If you assume that stopped at least some infections then the peak will be from lockdown to 3-4 weeks. Or in about 3 weeks time.

[Ginfilledcats]

Me, my husband and my mother work in 3 different nhs trusts, 1 nurse and 2 ops management. All our trusts are anticipating the peak will be the 2nd week of what would have been Easter holidays.
We're in the north west, so may end up a further week behind this if London peaks sat that time.

They're also all gearing up for a second wave/peak in September/October time depending on when the schools go back/restrictions start reducing.


I think we'll be in this state or lock down or more severe until June, then slowly start easing it off over summer: initially be allowed to visit 1 family in 1 family home weekly (no large gatherings/parties), then start encouraging the safer groups back into the work place but continuing with sensible distancing etc, then lessen restrictions on going out, but still not in large groups - restaurants and cafes and entertainment places only open to 50% capacity. Then schools in September, then continued return to normal from then.

The above is based on nothing but pure speculation and guess work however.

[mrssunshinexxx]

@Devlesko excuse me I haven't left the house in almost 3 weeks before lock down was announced !

[Randomschoolworker19]

Nowhere near I'm afraid.

The people dying today could potentially have contracted the virus up to 5 weeks ago when we weren't doing any social distancing at all.

2 week incubation period.
2-3 weeks to die from showing first symptoms.

We've only been in lock down for a week and not a proper one at that. It could be another 5-6 weeks before we see any significant progress.

[anotherlittlechicken]

@Whitefeather01

I thought (HOPED!) we had peaked yesterday when it was nearly 400.

I am horrified at 563. At this rate it will be a thousand by the weekend!

[willdoitinaminute]

My DM died of pneumonia which was the result of secondary bowel cancer in her lungs. The pneumonia actually killed her but the cancer was the cause.
Many patients die of complications from underlying disease. Coronavirus is just one more respiratory infection that we can add to the list of infective agents. The vulnerable groups are vaccinated every year against other infective agents which has for the last few decades artificially reduced death rates. It’s modern preventive medicine at its best. Unfortunately medicine doesn’t have a solution at the moment so we are at the mercy of this virus like it or not.

[sonjadog]

I would have thought in about 3 weeks time, judging from what has happened in other countries. But it won't be so much a peak, as the numbers of people dying each day will stabilize, and then gradually decrease.

[AmelieTaylor]

Yes it's serious but some people don't understand what they mean about underlying health conditions, these are mostly life limited people

I am a diabetic and have high blood pressure. If I die I’ll have ‘underlying conditions’ I’m also 51 & overweight.

Do you think I should be dying soon anyway?!

YOU might, but actually I had rather planned on living a good few years still -if you don’t mind.

Try looking at those who have died. A HUGE number we’re not already in deaths door -as much as some of you would like to think so, because that makes you feel safe.

[winterinmadeira]

No. Peak will be in the coming weeks and the lockdown measures will be for at least 10-12 weeks.

[WhatWouldYouDoWhatWouldJesusDo]

Go on like what ??

I honestly haven't found it that bad, do a few activities for the day, have a walk either midday or early evening when it's quiet, go out and replace food when I need to. Again during quieter times.

And that's with having a disabled ds at home who's struggling and missing his routine. He also understands this is to stay safe and keep others safe.

It's fine, it's doable. I think people are mounting this up into a bigger task than it actually is.

[ginnybag]

No, this is not the peak.

Not even close.

~14 days from infection to symptoms +
~14-21 days from symptom to death (on average)

= 28 - 35 days from infection to death (again, on average)

The people who died today were likely infected somewhere around the end of February.

We went into 'lockdown' 9 days ago, and in the days immediately before that, half the country was still treating this whole thing as 'nothing serious' and an extended holiday, going on day trips to snowdon and down to beaches and parks. We are still 5 days away from the surge in infections that will have caused even starting to show, and then we wait.

IF our lock down measures are enough and enough people immediately began and consistently continue to follow them i.e. IF they are working, then our peak of deaths will begin around mid April and will begin to tail off towards the end of April.

IF.

Hopefully, by then, our infection rates will be dropping and testing will be more prevalent, but that doesn't mean relaxing measures as one 'busy' weekend of people mixing puts us right back at the start of having to lock down and wait.

Or, to put it another way - IF our lockdown measures are working then our peak number of infected still don't know that they are sick!

[Theredjellybean]

I just can't predict it.. I am a doc in Cornwall and its very quiet here.
Primary care not over run, covid service quiet, a and e quiet, hospital not full