563 dead today, is this our peak?

[Whitefeather01]

Surely we have to be close to peaking??

[midgebabe]

Italy and Spain are both seeing clear signs that their lockdown has worked and they are turning the corner , but that still means many weeks with quite high death rates.

So it will take a few more weeks yet.

And the corner is turned quickest the more people follow the advice and rules

I thought a June peak was what was expected without lockdown?

[lubeybooby]

strongly doubt the peak will be here til May -ish due to flattening out (hopefully) the curve a bit

[Quartz2208]

How on earth are we 11 weeks away.

I think Italy and Spain have now plateaued at the top of the peak and it will probably be a week before they start to drop

We are around 3 weeks away from that.

[namechangemania]

@Nicolanomore24 the deaths reported are from hospital only

[DianaT1969]

A hospital worker on the Irish MN thread said that they were admitting Cheltenham patients at the moment. That was a couple of days ago.

[AmelieTaylor]

Peak in June is just impossible we cannot go on like this for 12 weeks

What do you suggest then???

@Orangeblossom78

Did you know in the Uk there are around 1,500 deaths a day. Without the virus

Fucking hell I wish people would stop posting this shit. YES we know that. But we can’t instantly stop cancer or car accidents or any of the other thousands of things causing that. We do our best. But RIGHT NOW -we CAN save a shit load of lives by STAYING AT HOME it’s not like anyone is being asked to do anything at all beyond their ability. FFS

[crazydiamond222]

The peak in new deaths should come 3 weeks after lockdown (so mid april) based on an incubation period of 1 week and then an average of 2 weeks to death. I would expect we will be around 1000 deaths per day by that point.

[okiedokieme]

If the vulnerable all started to social distance on the day requested that is 16 days ago. Death typically is 14-21 days after exposure so even in a best case scenario we are 5 or so days off the peak (the rest of us were still out and about until the Friday so 12 days ago)

[forkfun]

@16:16jadey0891 annually about 600,000 people die in the UK of all causes. Works out around 1,600 people per day. Having a third of that number die of just one cause is messed up. There will be some overlap of deaths. So the number now is not 1,600 + covid deaths per day. Too early to know how much overlap there is though. I guess we'll know at the end of the year. It's utterly depressing.

[Orangeblossom78]

Jadey a GP posted this a few weeks ago, average daily deaths in Uk around 1,500 a day. (in general unrelated to this virus)

[Freshairimportanttoo]

Findum


You mean temp and cough is what flags as serious?

[mrssunshinexxx]

@AmelieTaylor a firmer lock down what about you?

[willdoitinaminute]

orangsblossom is correct. The average yearly death rate for every age group and cause is 5000000. Divide by 365 and it’s around 1500 a day.
The quarterly figures this year for the first 3 months of the year are statistically low compared to previous years so although a lot of people may die from corona because a lot haven’t died from seasonal flu the overall death rate in 2020 may not be significantly high.
We may well see a lower death rate than average later in the year or next year as a result of corona virus.
I believe despite the sensational media reporting Italy’s figures are similar. Natural deaths WITH corona are newsworthy. The same cannot be said of seasonal flu apparently.

[Orangeblossom78]

I just posted that to get it in perspective, as part of overall deaths. no need for such anger.

[carltonscroop]

If we are lucky, it might be 2-3 weeks to peak

But that luck depends on lockdown being effective enough.

We can never know how many of the deceased would have died around now anyhow.

And I haven't seen how many people died from all other causes in March. For although there might have been a diminution in deaths from accidents (because eg building sites closed, less traffic) I suspect those from other diseases and old age are continuing at their normal rates. CV will definitely cause excess deaths

[esjee]

With testing, ventilators, staff and contact tracing not being ramped up quickly enough, and the lockdown not being that severe (people have definitely lost interest in not going out recently), I'm starting to get concerned that this is not at all under control.

[okiedokieme]

But for some perspective, most of the people dying were likely to die imminently and that they had the virus isn't necessarily the cause - it will take months, years to unpack the truth as to how many "extra" deaths it actually caused. Yes it's serious but some people don't understand what they mean about underlying health conditions, these are mostly life limited people

[Orangeblossom78]

The other thing the GP posted was that in training the last few weeks, they had been told many died with the virus rather than solely from it, as well, as in they were going to die anyway within a short time.

[AmelieTaylor]

We will never know if a lot of the deaths are due to CV or something else. Clearly we are in an awful situation but I really think the media are making things sound much worse. Lots of old people die every day from a multitude of different things

JFC. Open your EARS. there are a shit load of people under 70 dying.

And news flash lots if over 70’s DONT die every day and every one of them is someone’s mum/dad/husband/wufe ir whatever and LIVES MATTER - not just yours & other under 40’s who seem to think they’re fucking immune.

[anothernotherone]

The UK isn't testing though.

So there are healthcare and supermarket workers working with the virus and shoppers supermarket shopping with the virus. As well as the growing group who've had flu or a bad cold or a different virus who are now under the impression they're immune to covid...

So June still seems pretty likely.

[tempester28]

The people who have died today may have been in hospital for 3 weeks.

[NotDavidTennant]

There is no way we will peak as late as June. If the virus is still spreading unchecked at that point then most people in the country will have already had it by then.

[jadey0891]

@Orangeblossom78
Ok I understand that but the thread is about the deaths today due to covid-19..Sadly people lose there lives through other illnesses day in day out but with covid-19,lives are being taken away by this questionable illness/silent killer virus.
Sadly there is nothing we can do about covid-19 other then stay home, save lives

[LellyMcKelly]

Not even close. This isn’t even the end of the beginning.

[Devlesko]

No, it's going to get much worse, unfortunately. Apparently, this is the slow growth that will peak in June.