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Delay in today's numbers

704 replies

TheReelSlimShady · 25/03/2020 20:00

Unless I'm being really stupid, it doesn't look like the numbers have been updated for today, it still says 24th March

www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public

Not seen any reasons as to why they are delayed?

OP posts:
Thread gallery
20
todayisnottuesday · 26/03/2020 21:26

Did you do your rough guide on previous days too? Or just yesterday and today?

Well let's just say I've been to busy to be sitting here putting them all on some sort of graph and thinking it's means much. Statistics are notoriously unreliable so I treat them with caution, same for them predicting much as there are way too many variables involved in what the future numbers/ patterns will be eg mutations, staffing levels, quality of care and equipment, proportion of bacterial rather than viral complications and associated treatment. You'd need a crystal ball, not a graph.

No matter how accurate or inaccurate the statistics are, they are only a very small part of a very big picture.

RainbowPenguins · 26/03/2020 21:29

I'm not seeing any facts on here. I'm seeing hearsay and the extrapolation of some very unreliable statistic

Eh? I've posted links and screenshots to the department of health official twitter feed where they have stated and explained numbers and changes in reporting. How is that hearsay and unreliable?

Why, when there is so much else going on that you could use that energy for?

Oh sorry. Didn't realise you were the thread police.

todayisnottuesday · 26/03/2020 21:29

@Utterlybutterly8
Yes, it’s the bigger picture/general trend that matters IMO - not how to split the figures over the last two days

Can you PLEASE actually read my posts before keeping on banging on along this line - I have quite clearly agreed with your former statement many times...

I keep my eye on the numbers as they directly affect me, how I choose to interpret them is my choice based on my judgement and my experience.

RainbowPenguins · 26/03/2020 21:31

*Well let's just say I've been to busy to be sitting here putting them all on some sort of graph and thinking it's means much. Statistics are notoriously unreliable so I treat them with caution, same for them predicting much as there are way too many variables involved in what the future numbers/ patterns will be eg mutations, staffing levels, quality of care and equipment, proportion of bacterial rather than viral complications and associated treatment. You'd need a crystal ball, not a graph.

No matter how accurate or inaccurate the statistics are, they are only a very small part of a very big picture.*

So why are you bothering to spend time doing sums to get dodgy rough numbers then? Why not just use the actual numbers the department of health have given us? Surely that would be quicker for you given you are soooo busy?

todayisnottuesday · 26/03/2020 21:32

I've posted links and screenshots to the department of health official twitter feed where they have stated and explained numbers and changes in reporting. How is that hearsay and unreliable?

YOU may have done. As I have explained many times, I am not questioning the actual statistics, I am questioning their relevance. Statistics may be facts, but they are frequently misleading too.

Oh sorry. Didn't realise you were the thread police.

If you're going to be an arse, can you at least be original?

Utterlybutterly8 · 26/03/2020 21:33

Can you PLEASE actually read my posts before keeping on banging on along this line - I have quite clearly agreed with your former statement many times...

Eh? I don’t think I’ve ever even interacted with you before. And what former statement? I’m confused...

RainbowPenguins · 26/03/2020 21:33

If you're going to be an arse, can you at least be original?

Grin the irony!

todayisnottuesday · 26/03/2020 21:37

So why are you bothering to spend time doing sums to get dodgy rough numbers then? Why not just use the actual numbers the department of health have given us?

Because as I said, what the numbers MAY be will directly affect me in many ways. So I keep an eye on them, do a 30 SECOND calculation and look for links between what I am seeing and what is being reported. Then I try and keep a clear head and remind myself none of us know for definite what is coming, so I brace myself for whatever. I don't have to explain myself to you or ask for your permission.

todayisnottuesday · 26/03/2020 21:38

I didn't use the 'actual numbers' for those days as it was unclear what they were and what periods they covered so I used a very rough guide. The end.

todayisnottuesday · 26/03/2020 21:40

Eh? I don’t think I’ve ever even interacted with you before. And what former statement? I’m confused...

So who has posted that dividing the numbers/ whatever - gives a 100% accurate, factual result then?

RainbowPenguins · 26/03/2020 21:46

I didn't use the 'actual numbers' for those days as it was unclear what they were and what periods they covered so I used a very rough guide. The end.

But it's not unclear is it Hmm department of health have made it very clear what the numbers and date ranges are, and it's easy to calculate accurately if you want to go back further than today. But if you want to mislead yourself with your rough numbers even though you say they directly affect you then go ahead. I think you're in for a shock tomorrow.

todayisnottuesday · 26/03/2020 21:49

I think you're in for a shock tomorrow

Why on earth would I be 'in for a shock' when I have stated I think the numbers will be unpredictable, and braced myself for whatever may happen? Confused

Bluntness100 · 26/03/2020 21:57

God this is batshit, can’t believe it’s still going on.

It’s the trend that’s important, arguing over numbers by hour and coming up with multiple ways of doing it to make the math say what you want is crazy.

The numbers are not clear because of the change in reporting. The Uk is likely flat lining at worst. Let’s see how it goes over the next few days and let’s all bloody hope we don’t see a huge increase in people dying.

Really is there anything more to it than that, let’s all hope we don’t see a big increase in people loosing their lives.

RainbowPenguins · 26/03/2020 22:04

Why on earth would I be 'in for a shock' when I have stated I think the numbers will be unpredictable, and braced myself for whatever may happen?

You don't have to explain yourself to me but you are being very contradictory in your posts. Saying the numbers directly affect you and you want to brace yourself. But then use a made up number rather than factual ones.

Why are you ignoring today's actual number and doing bad maths to get a rough guide for the last two days? (Where you've said you haven't done this previously). What's the point?

Why not just accept the current number is 115 for the last reported 24hr period? Maybe you won't actually have to brace yourself for tomorrow then.

Clearly we are all here because we are interested in the numbers, I just don't understand why people are bothering if they are just going to make the numbers up themselves to suit them. It doesn't change the facts.

Miriel · 26/03/2020 22:06

I can't tell if people are innumerate or find the idea of rising numbers of deaths so distressing that they'll look for any way to deny it.

It is distressing. That doesn't make it less true.

RainbowPenguins · 26/03/2020 22:10

Probably a combination Muriel. Agree with you completely.

IsisCam · 26/03/2020 22:12

The numbers unfortunately will grow dramatically in the next two weeks. This is actually very predictable, as the number of infected people grows exponentially (and it was still growing up until a few days ago after the failure of the government to stop massive mingling in Scotland, Snowdonia and especially while grocery shopping) and certain percentage of those infected will die. There is already right now enough infected people among us who aren’t even yet experiencing symptoms to bring deaths in thousands every day in two weeks. This is what brings us TV appearances of Boris Johnson every day and Sunak with his promises of mountains over mountains of pounds.

Let’s hope the government enforced strict social distancing in the next few days so we can look forward to those numbers flatlining in a month.

Bluntness100 · 26/03/2020 22:15

Yes, as we are not yet at the peak the numbers are expected to grow over the next two to three weeks before declining. All we can do is hope the increase is not big and not many people don’t loose their lives.

Because let’s try to remember this is actually people dying that’s being discussed here. Someone’s mother, father, sister, brother, son, aunt uncle, cousin, friend.

It’s people loosing their lives that is being discussed.

RainbowPenguins · 26/03/2020 22:23

Yes, people are tragically dying. An even more important reason not to minimise and stick to the facts, which is sadly in the last 24hr period reported, 115 people lost their lives. Not some dodgy 'average' of 65 a day in the last two days/32 hours, or 70 or whatever other inaccurate numbers given earlier on the thread.

todayisnottuesday · 26/03/2020 22:26

I can't tell if people are innumerate or find the idea of rising numbers of deaths so distressing that they'll look for any way to deny it

Pretty sure I am not innumerate or I would have killed many people by now. Some people are naturally cautious of statistics and their importance and prefer to take things as they come. Why are some on here so invested in getting others to attach the same relevance to statistics as you?

It’s the trend that’s important

Exactly this. I'm keeping a cautious eye on the numbers, but at the same time I'm aware they are not always accurate, predictable or a true representation of what is happening and what will happen. What I am not doing is using any figures as proof that we are headed for a worst case scenario as we simply do not know that yet. I'm not with the 'we are two weeks behind Italy, therefore it will be as bad here' as that is theory not fact.

Why are you ignoring today's actual number and doing bad maths to get a rough guide for the last two days?.

Because the exact numbers were unclear to me. So I did a quick sum in my head to try and gauge a rough idea of numbers, and look for any link between the number and what I had seen during that time. Then the rational side of me reminded me not to place to much emphasis on statistics anyway and carry on as normal - hope for the best but prepare for the worst. Because that is all anyone can do.

todayisnottuesday · 26/03/2020 22:31

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lemons72 · 26/03/2020 22:58

@todayisnottuesday No idea, but it wasn’t me! Confused

RainbowPenguins · 26/03/2020 23:42

today I am sorry you are having to experience that and can only imagine how hard it is on the frontline seeing it with your own eyes.

However I do stand by my last comment although I think you have taken it to be personally aimed at you which it isn't. A few posters, not just yourself, have calculated numbers from yesterday and today inaccurately, which as a result has minimised today's number. As PP have reminded us, and you are clearly well aware, these are real people and their families behind the numbers. Even more reason to keep them accurate.

Disagree or debate with me all you wish. I do not appreciate being told to 'fuck off'. It's aggressive.

Bluntness100 · 27/03/2020 06:41

The thing is very sadly we would expect the numbers to keep increasing until we hit the peak, then it starts to decline, obviously we would all hope, or I’d hope we’d all hope, we would see as few deaths as possible.

We all want out of lock down, not just for our mental,health, but the long term repercussions is likely all our taxes will increase to pay for this, the shut down, the bail out, the treatment, is not freee, someone else isn’t paying for it, we will be the ones to pay,, either with our lives, our social liberty or our money,

So the quicker this is over, with as little impact, the better,

I imagine lock down may be extended for a week or two after the peak, Ie after the initial three weeks, and then slowly restrictions lifted, but we can only wait and see, and need to keep watching how the numbers trend, let’s just keep hoping for the best, but understand we are expecting to see an upward trajectory over the next few days sadly.

QuentinWinters · 27/03/2020 14:23

181 today. No sign of the downward trajectory yet