Delay in today's numbers

[TheReelSlimShady]

Unless I'm being really stupid, it doesn't look like the numbers have been updated for today, it still says 24th March

www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public

Not seen any reasons as to why they are delayed?

Sorry 8 hour period...

Department of health said yesterday's numbers were from 9am on 24th to 5pm on 24th... an 8 hour period. Not 24hr period. We can't know a full 48hr period as we do not know the number of deaths at 5pm on 23rd.

Well it will all become clearer tomorrow.

We are still tracking well below Italy.

There was a lot of bullying in this thread yesterday. Nobody wants the numbers to be high FFS. That’s so offensive.

The numbers didn’t make sense and lo and behold they were only for an 8 hour period. It’s okay to question things and this does not make someone a ghoul.

Oh my,,,,this is batshit.

Well said @defthand

Can people not understand averages?

Yep very well said @defthand.

I’m really confused. Can someone explain this as if to a 3 year old please? Particularly in relation to the downward trajectory? (Which, if this is good, how are we also following Italy?!)

Thank you

Why are people dissecting the very simple figures that are being given to us..and why are people dividing by 2 stop trying to find an average..its very simple..todays death toll is a lot worse than yesterday and has yet to peak..so tomorrow will sadly be higher again..and the next day and so on until the effects of lockdown kick in..

You can't get a 24 hour average by dividing a 32 hour period by two...

Jenny Harris intimated when she said we were starting to see the actions bite in the numbers.

She is likely to have meant that the rate of increase of new infections was slowing, not that infections were slowing nor that deaths were slowing. Deaths have a 3-4 week lead time from infection.

Those of us who questioned the figures yesterday were right. The thought that death rates would be impacted so quickly is no more than wishful thinking and shows a misunderstanding of the progress of the disease.

So whereas her comments are encouraging, I think you are reading far too much into them, as you did with last night’s figures.

If they were only for an 8 hour period, then can we assume that the true number was around 120 then?

jesus I have to stop obsessing over this

Because when 2 sample numbers are over 2 different time periods, its common to average them out.

Apparently not.

If it’s 36 hours only as some are weirdly trying to argue it down to the hour, and not what the nhs have said of split it into two days, divide by two, it means the previous days numbers were then covering an extra 16 hours ( which is so wrong but let’s go with it) which then means Tuesdays numbers were artificially inflated, and we are still on a sodden down ward trajectory.

Totally batshit.

Completely agree @Louise91417 why would we see a downward trend when cases are rising so much?

Before anybody jumps on me, I’d love there to be a downward trend but we haven’t peaked yet therefore there won’t be.

Which ever way you cut it, by playing with hours, we are still going down, at worst flat lining, we are not spiking.

You cannot change the math by messing with it to make it say what you want, which is it is increasing, because it’s not.

It simply isn’t.

Where have the NHS said to split today and yesterday by 2?

Before anybody jumps on me, I’d love there to be a downward trend but we haven’t peaked yet therefore there won’t be

The numbers are there, show us. Because I’m showing it. You do the same.

Cmon, show us the spike taking total numbers into account for the last three days.

And for the record I agree if we are before the peak it should increase, but that’s not what the numbers are saying.

Paranoia, Pessimism, panic helps no one.

I think you've got th beginnings of a good fable here. There were once three brothers...

Thank you @Bluntness100. The voice of reason on a sometimes bonkers thread.

Bluntness, you seem to be very confused about what's happened here.

They decided to shift the 24 hour period they report the numbers from 9am-9am to 5pm-5pm. That left an eight hour gap when they shifted from one to the other. The 43 deaths they reported yesterday were for this 8 hour gap.

The day before that they reported a 24 hour period (9am-9am) and today they reported a 24 hour period (5pm-5pm). There is no spare time that you can average the 8 hour time period with to get back to 24 hours.

If it’s 36 hours only as some are weirdly trying to argue it down to the hour, and not what the nhs have said of split it into two days, divide by two, it means the previous days numbers were then covering an extra 16 hours ( which is so wrong but let’s go with it) which then means Tuesdays numbers were artificially inflated, and we are still on a sodden down ward trajectory.

No. The figures were from 9am one day until 9am the next. They decided to change it to cover 5pm until 5pm the next day instead.

Reported on the 24th: 9am on 23rd - 9am on 24th, 24 hours
Reported on the 25th: 9am on 24th - 5pm on 24th, 8 hours
Reported on the 26th: 5pm on 24th - 5pm on 25th, 24 hours

There are no extra 16 hours. Adding the numbers for the past two days and dividing by two does not give you a 24 hour average. It's not batshit, it's basic maths.

Because when 2 sample numbers are over 2 different time periods, its common to average them out.

That's not the average for a 24 hour period though, it's an average for a 16 hour period, because the numbers are from 9am 24th to 5pm on 25th as per the explanation from Department of Health.

So the average is 65 deaths in a 16 hour period, not 24. (England numbers)

@Bluntness100

The figures have risen from 422 to 578 over a 32 hour period from 9am on 24 March to 5pm on 25 March. That’s a daily death rate of 117, and increase of 85 on the day before.

Your comment Which ever way you cut it, by playing with hours, we are still going down, at worst flat lining, we are not spiking. is wrong I’m afraid, much as I would love it to be going down.

Bluntness
As at 1pm on 24th March total deaths 422. As at 5pm on 25th March total deaths 578

I can’t see how that averages to 65 cases.

Please explain.