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Delay in today's numbers

704 replies

TheReelSlimShady · 25/03/2020 20:00

Unless I'm being really stupid, it doesn't look like the numbers have been updated for today, it still says 24th March

www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public

Not seen any reasons as to why they are delayed?

OP posts:
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FingonTheValiant · 26/03/2020 20:17

The 465 reported on the 25th was numbers up til 5pm on the 24th. So it’s thrown it all out by a day as they reported the 24th twice with different cut offs.

todayisnottuesday · 26/03/2020 20:18

They didn’t work and they soon won’t be available at all

You don't know that - as we speak beds, ventilators, and HCP's are being brought in. The PPE situation/ delay etc has been dire but I think so far the NHS have been coping well. The HCP's are also becoming more knowledgable in how to spot and treat CV. there is still hope, and I wish people wouldn't take other people's hope away with negatives, hyperbole and worst case scenarios. We need hope in order to keep morale up at what is a terrible time.

FATEdestiny · 26/03/2020 20:18

They are the data reported each day on worldometer (website tracking the global data). The dates given for Italy are the figures reported on that day. Likewise for UK.

QuentinWinters · 26/03/2020 20:20

This downward trajectory thing is just rubbish.
I think Dr Harries was saying the rate of increase was lower than expected so the measures are working - that is positive. But it is not a "downwards trajectory".
Go on worldmeters and look at the graphs
www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
The way to do averages is average per hour
The last 24 hours deaths per hours 115/24 = 4.79
Previous day (8 hours) 41/8 = 5
Previous day (24 hours) 87/24 = 3.6
Previous day (24 hours) 54/24 = 2.25
Previous day (24 hours) 48/24 = 2

There is no way that can be described as a downward trajectory Confused

fromlittleacorns · 26/03/2020 20:23

Just copying Angryrant's post here as it is useful.

"Kate McCann - 'For those asking/concerned about PHE figures on covid-19 deaths and why the number yesterday was low/why the way it is reported has changed, here is some more information:
NHS has been providing figures to PHE on covid deaths by 9am every day and PHE then publishing stats at 2pm. That was the intention. But as deaths rise it has become difficult to collate and verify the numbers in time. That has led to figures being published after the 2pm deadline. To get on top of this, PHE and NHS have decided to change the time these numbers are reported to allow more time to check they're all correct. Importantly, the way the deaths are collated has not changed, only the time. [I am still waiting to hear what the new cut off time is, and the new publishing time]. As a result, yesterday's death stats looked much lower than expected but unfortunately that was a crossover day when the times were being altered. So today the stats are likely to look far higher. To give a more accurate picture (although I appreciate this is not ideal, stats experts) the suggestion is we add up the figures from yesterday and today and then divide by two to better understand what is happening. There is also likely to be a note published later from officials to explain this formally, so that people can rest assured there is nothing funny going on with the numbers here.'"

I make it roughly this (these figs may be slightly wrong, but roughly right):
23rd - 54
24th - 87
25th - 43
26th - 115

I then, as suggested above, take the average of 25th and 26th = 158/2 = 78 for both days. Obviously that is not the 'correct' figure but would be a rough approx. Of course you can't read too much into a few days figures anyway. Perhaps the official note will explain more.

todayisnottuesday · 26/03/2020 20:25

The 465 reported on the 25th was numbers up til 5pm on the 24th. So it’s thrown it all out by a day as they reported the 24th twice with different cut offs

I read that Weds figures covered 1pm Tues to 9 Am Weds, so there was a lag of 4 hours. Its very confusing though - I'm using an average of the last 2 days as a guide - so 43 + 115 / 2 = average 79 each day.

I don't think the numbers are going to quite as predictable as some think though - there will be surges some days and not others. We could also be seeing some more prison and nursing homes deaths I think, sadly.

FingonTheValiant · 26/03/2020 20:25

Except it’s not the figure for the 26th. They split one day in two and reported it twice. So there’s no point averaging one day’s numbers across two days,

todayisnottuesday · 26/03/2020 20:26

158 / 2 is 79

todayisnottuesday · 26/03/2020 20:30

Except it’s not the figure for the 26th. They split one day in two and reported it twice. So there’s no point averaging one day’s numbers across two days

I agree - it's very unclear, but as a rough guide it's fine as I don't believe the daily numbers are predictable as people think for a lot of reasons - staffing levels, times of exposure etc - I think it will fluctuate a lot, and it's the overall numbers that will provide a realistic picture. The trouble is, human beings like being able to control and predict things by nature, but you can't really do that with a virus for so many reasons.

fromlittleacorns · 26/03/2020 20:32

158 / 2 is 79

True! I also tend to agree with the person who said you can't read much into one or two days figures.

I wonder if the beginning of handwashing makes a difference to the rate of growth at all - can't remember the exact date that it was introduced - was it around the beginning of March?

todayisnottuesday · 26/03/2020 20:34

The figure you need to keep an eye on is how many tested positive because they are all the ones in hospital having treatment being as they are the only ones tested when they are in hospital at the moment

There's also a big link between the numbers of infected and listed as critical/ serious and the death rate the next/ a few days later

RainbowPenguins · 26/03/2020 20:35

Kate McCann is a reporter for Sky and tweeted that before there was any official information on the timings of the numbers reported. What she has written is wrong because yesterday was not a 24hr period. Please look at the official department of health Twitter where they have given a very clear explanation on the changes to the number reporting.

todayisnottuesday · 26/03/2020 20:37

True! I also tend to agree with the person who said you can't read much into one or two days figures

See, I think this but still keep my eye on the figures just in case. I suppose a small part of me is still hoping for a miracle. Failing that, at the very least I'm still hoping we"re not on the same trajectory as Italy and Spain. There is still some hope.

todayisnottuesday · 26/03/2020 20:39

Please look at the official department of health Twitter where they have given a very clear explanation on the changes to the number reporting

I still don't think any inaccuracy massively changes the overall picture though. My trust is seeing surges rather than a steady rate for lots of reasons. I am hearing many London trusts are seeing the same.

MirrorGold · 26/03/2020 20:45

I’ll say this again.
The numbers were delayed by almost a week because it was taking PHE a week to process the samples and report results.
Our real number is much much higher.

RainbowPenguins · 26/03/2020 20:47

Well no, going forwards it will be 24hr periods again so there will be no debate. But when looking at yesterday and today, it's inaccurate to add them and divide by two to get an average (because it does not actually give you a daily average). And what's the point anyway, when today we've been given the number of 115 for a 24hr (5pm-5pm) period? That's the latest figure, which is the highest yet for any 24hr period reported so far.

todayisnottuesday · 26/03/2020 20:49

I’ll say this again.
The numbers were delayed by almost a week because it was taking PHE a week to process the samples and report results.
Our real number is much much higher

Evidence?

todayisnottuesday · 26/03/2020 20:50

t's inaccurate to add them and divide by two to get an average (because it does not actually give you a daily average)

It's a rough guide.

The tone of this thread has changed again, seems like some just want to panic others on sod all evidence. Unhelpful.

RainbowPenguins · 26/03/2020 20:54

*It's a rough guide.

The tone of this thread has changed again, seems like some just want to panic others on sod all evidence. Unhelpful.*

A rough guide to what?! A 16hr period yes. Not a 24hr one.

Why do you need a 'rough guide' anyway when the facts are being reported by the department of health? Why are you so keen to deny the facts?

RainbowPenguins · 26/03/2020 20:57

Honestly this thread 🤦🏼‍♀️

Did you do your rough guide on previous days too? Or just yesterday and today?

Utterlybutterly8 · 26/03/2020 20:57

I don't see why everyone is making such a big deal about the timing of the figures. The death toll in the UK is now 578 and exactly two weeks ago it was 1016 in Italy.

RainbowPenguins · 26/03/2020 21:03

I'm making a big deal out of the posts claiming if you add yesterday and today and divide by 2, then the number is less than today (115) so it's not as bad and things are improving. This is very misleading and inaccurate. It is bad maths and unfortunately it's too early to see improvement in UK numbers yet.

I agree we seem to be growing slower than Italy which is positive if it carries on that way. And I am pleased because I've fully supported our CMO/CSO and the things they have explained to us, so I truly hope they are right.

fromlittleacorns · 26/03/2020 21:11

ah I see what you mean now rainbowpenguins. I suppose the 115 over 24 hrs today (26th) is actually proportionately less than the 43 over 8 hrs on 25th - but that is such a short period as not to tell us anything at all.

Jeremy Vine has tweeted some recent estimates by statisticians including someone from imperial that the peak will be 5th April at 260, with total deaths 5700. Of course that is just one model, and there are upper and lower sensitivity estimates as well.

todayisnottuesday · 26/03/2020 21:20

Why are you so keen to deny the facts?

I'm not seeing any facts on here. I'm seeing hearsay and the extrapolation of some very unreliable statistics.

I'm making a big deal out of the posts claiming if you add yesterday and today and divide by 2, then the number is less than today (115) so it's not as bad and things are improving. This is very misleading and inaccurate. It is bad maths and unfortunately it's too early to see improvement in UK numbers yet

Why, when there is so much else going on that you could use that energy for? I have stated that I - personally - have used this as a very rough guide to go on. How is that misleading? If I choose to do that that is my choice, I am not advocating it as completely accurate. At no point did I try to say the numbers were a 'fact', OR that there is a reduction in numbers. Unlike many others on there, I have presented nothing on here as a 'fact' because I know what one actually is.

Utterlybutterly8 · 26/03/2020 21:25

I agree we seem to be growing slower than Italy which is positive if it carries on that way.

Yes, it’s the bigger picture/general trend that matters IMO - not how to split the figures over the last two days.

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