Delay in today's numbers

[TheReelSlimShady]

Unless I'm being really stupid, it doesn't look like the numbers have been updated for today, it still says 24th March

www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public

Not seen any reasons as to why they are delayed?

As if we are flatlining yet. Do we understand basic science here? Even if we had two days of flat figures that wouldn’t mean anything. Cases are rising every day. You honestly think the death rate is coming down over the next few weeks?

There’s optimism then there’s sticking your head in the sand.

If you are interested in the data, is suggest joining this thread for much more rational and balanced analysis:

Covid-19-Daily-numbers-graphs-analysis

The line does appear to be flattening, compared to Italy. We are still on the upwards trajectory of the curve, so have not peaked. But the big positive seems to be that our curve is lower.

This is also positive. Based on figures to yesterday

Why do we even need to look at averages? The deaths for a 24 hour period, from 5pm 24th- 5pm 25th are 115. We know that. That’s the highest daily rate we’ve had so far. How does that not indicate that we’re still on the rise?

I’m struggling to see how that graph is positive but maybe that’s just me. It has confirmed what I thought, that quite often we track a flat few days then see a bit of a spike. Other than we are not on exactly the same path as Italy and Spain I don’t think it looks that positive.

It's positive in as much as it could be worse. I think.

I think the 'positive' is if we keep heading on a flatter curve compared to Italy and Spain then we may be able to cope better in the hospitals which would save some lives. It's not looking as bad as Italy at the moment which is positive but too early to know if it will stay like this ver the next few weeks.

The negatives will very shortly outweighs the positives. All of these poor souls who have died had access to all of the medical facilities. They didn’t work and they soon won’t be available at all.

Ok fine. Of positive now is not being on the same track as Italy then I’ll take that.

@Bluntness100 why are you trying to provoke again with this bullshit? People who legitimately questioned the numbers were shouted down and bullied and accused of being horrible and wanting large numbers of deaths. It was ridiculous. And it’s fantastic to see there was a clear explanation for it. And you think that being relieved and proud that they didn’t abandon their critical thinking because of a bunch of trolls is horrible?

No.
And? What they should be saying is “sorry”.

“Sorry we accused you of all sorts of hysterical shite just because you questioned an unusually low number of deaths and didn’t abandon your critical thinking like the rest of us.”

Fuck yes! They should feel proud for not letting a bunch of assholes on mumsnet sway their critical thinking.

Thanks for the chart @FATEdestiny - very useful. It’s encouraging to see that our death rate is now nearly half what Italy’s was at the same stage. Is it safe to say that all those people who said we were following the same trajectory as Italy or worse were wrong?

Ok fine. Of positive now is not being on the same track as Italy then I’ll take that.

That’s the small glimmer of hope that I’m clinging on to. And the comments from Imperial today, that our peak could be just 2-3 weeks away. We’re in for a rough ride over the next few weeks though.

Very small positives I guess but something.

@Nekoness I completely agree with you.

Is it safe to say that all those people who said we were following the same trajectory as Italy or worse were wrong?

Well... urm...

If you look at the italy/UK comparisons, it would seem we have stretched our tracking period. We seem to be about 16/17 days behind Italy now, rather than 14 days which was originally stated (by government official sources).

It is positive.

Maybe we will continue to track Italy but around 16 days behind. Maybe we will continue to stretch and go to 17 days, 18 days, 19 days and so on gradually over time. That would be better. May be we won't follow Italy at all. Japan and Germany have quite different death rate curves.

I'll keep tracking it.

The US looks poised to rocket up on that graph.

I hope we begin to flatten the curve but I don't think that will happen for 7-14 days time, just as we hit peak, which although sounds bad, that's what they wanted a flat peak.

The figure you need to keep an eye on is how many tested positive because they are all the ones in hospital having treatment being as they are the only ones tested when they are in hospital at the moment.

So those in hospital are potentially the ones more likely to pass away as they need treatment and I'm not sure what the average % of those expire.

Sostenueto death rate is the only reasonable way to compare countries. Testing rates vary incredibly from country to country. So much so that infection rates are a completely pointless statistic that is best ignored!

But I may ( probably) be wrong🤔

I'll keep tracking it.

That would be really useful @FATEdestiny, thanks. Stretching over a longer period of time can only be a good thing if it allows the NHS to cope - which in turn could save so many lives. Although if we’re expected to peak in 2-3 weeks time as the Imperial expert said today, we’re not really stretching things out that slowly!

But I may ( probably) be wrong

Death rates could be wrong, or vary in reporting levels between countries*. But if anyone/wants to analyse the data for the spread of coronavirus globally, death rates are the most relies statistic we have.

*Russia is a great example of that. Very few deaths, apparently. We all know it's false reporting tho.

The death rate will go up, it is sad but inevitable. Those people who we know died in the last 24 hours are those who became ill, possibly up to 3 weeks ago, on average. More will die because they are the ones who became ill before the stronger measures by the Government.
The figures that are key are the number of patients being tested positive. If the testing increases, but the positives go down, that is when we are winning.
The underlying bickering and point scoring on this thread is unnecessary. You can spend hours analysing graphs and looking at statistics, but we are on an upward curve, and nothing will change that. The government today said, in their daily live briefing, that there is a slight flattening of the curve, which is positive, because we must delay the impact to our NHS.
Now leaving this thread, because MN should be better than this.

Wouldn’t it be insane, but great if the governments plan actually worked?

Obviously all the deaths are still a tragedy but it we are truly flattening the curve then that’s hopeful! I know it’s too early to tell but I hope.

@Sostenueto I totally agree with you. As they’re primarily only testing patients who are admitted in to hospital the amount of people testing positive is a good indication of how many people are needing hospital care. That’s a good way of also looking at how much stress it’s currently putting on the nhs. Scary Mary.

FATE does the chart need reworking? The numbers released on the 26th (ie today) are for the 25th (until 5pm), not for the 26th. We’ll get the numbers for the 26th tomorrow. We’re now reporting a day behind.