Please can someone explain why the death toll in Italy is escalating so much?

[Thelowquietsea]

I'm aware that there's a large number of elderly in Italy, they live intergenerationally, in fairly tight cities.

But they've been in lockdown for weeks. Why is the death toll jumping so significantly?

Another source showing Uk has somewhat lower prevalence of hypertension (but %s in 30s... ).

I could cry reading your post, this will be the UK in two weeks. Two weeks ago today in italy, we went into full lockdown where we couldn't leave our houses. On that day, the UK death toll was two weeks behind italy. For two weeks we have had no choice but to respect the rules. It has been taken very very seriously. Believe me, no one has flouted any rules, if anything we have taken more precaution than those prescribed. The deaths are rising now because those are cases of people from one month ago, who have maybe had it for a couple of weeks and have been in ICU and are now dying after fighting on ventilators for days. They have said it will keep rising for at least another week. A month ago, we were just learning it had arrived in Italy and they were cancelling large events.
I've heard a few things about Italians kissing to say hi and aging population, but in general let me tell you, the Italian population are fit as fiddles, hence why they live so long. They eat really well, are not overweight, get blood tests regularly to check blood pressure. Their mindset is prevention. I am so worried for the UK. The situation has escalated so badly here in the last week. In my tiny town, only now, two weeks after isolation have the first couple of cases popped up. Which makes you wonder about that two weeks incubation period....

Italy’s healthcare system is struggling. They are also likely undertesting, so you get the number of infected looking lower than it is and that makes the death rate look higher.

They are rationing healthcare beds. People who are expected not to do well are being left for people who are expected to do better.

Scary stuff. Fingers crossed we don’t get there.

By the way, two weeks ago, our death toll on 7 march was 233...that's your uk number today. You are still exactly two weeks behind us. That curve has not changed in a month. You are no different to us, we are very very similar European countries, believe me, I have lived in UK for 25 years and in Italy for 10 years. We are very similar in many ways. In two weeks your deaths will be around the 4,800 mark I'm afraid. That's not dependent on what you do today, because that is the result of people who are already carrying the virus, its history. It's done.

I sincerely doubt it is demographics. China went into lockdown at 638 cases, much stricter restrictions. They have a mortality rate of 3%. We are almost at5000 and have nowhere near the restrictions.

China built mega hospitals and everyone testing positive was admitted, whether they needed them or not, until they were full. They are reporting 100 patients to every 1 doctor and nurse which just would not work in the UK (they were basically in one big tent.)

They also re allocated staff from all over their massive country to wuhan, they had a major epidemic in one region but the rest of the country was ok and they could reallocate massive resources. Its all over the UK and Italy and we are smaller countries

I don't really understand the statistics.

Is it uncontrolled hypertension that is causing the problem- lots of people don't realise they have it and it affects a LOT of people

I have hypertension but it's is very well controlled by meds but I am terrified.

I believe that @pluckedpencil

I'm in Ireland but I think it's ''done'' as you say. Too many infected people out there.

Ireland has had two deaths but if you read thomas pueyo's interpretation of that, working backwards from what they know about actual cases and reported cases, 2 deaths equals 3,200 cases.

I'm terrified and I think people think that's hysteria. Not that I have been behaving ''hysterically'' god forbid. But the risks I have to take (going to work on the (half empty luckily) bus terrify me.

I don't know why people think that we aren't headed to the same place as Italy. we have similar cultures in that people think the rules don't apply to them. I am taking this very seriously but a lot of people aren't.

They talk about another parallel ''pandemic of fear'' but to be honest I think there is a large group of people who don't have enough fear.

Pluckedpencil wisest post on MN but people will not want to hear something so scary.

DoctorNicoleWatterson - thanks for that, a really great explanation of how pandemics work.
It’s very clear from that why people don’t take it seriously at first, it isn’t stupidity, it’s just that the virus spreads silently and rapidly.

I’m not saying whether or not we will experience anything like Italy. But why it spreads in some areas and not others is very odd. Why is it not spreading in Japan, which isn’t under lockdown, hasn’t closed stores and restaurants, and many people are going to work as usual?

They even have the oldest population in the world. I think we’ll find cultural or other factors do matter but what those encompass are far from clear right now.

By the way, two weeks ago, our death toll on 7 march was 233...that's your uk number today. You are still exactly two weeks behind us Jesus that is scary.
I hope you are doing okay over there, thanks for the information.

@Pluckedpencil this is my experience too. There are people flouting the rules but the vast vast majority are following them and being stricter than officially required - shopping once every 10 days, for example.

It worries me that people in the UK are misunderstanding the delay between infection, testing and death and interpreting the figures to mean that either locking down doesn't change anything, or that it isn't working because people break the rules so it's pointless.

By those figures the real impact will show over the next month. I wish I could sleep for a month.

I have just been reading today's report from Italy. They have admitted a few mistakes. For example, too many people were hospitalised in Lombardia at the beginning, even those who didn't need being hospitalised. Then people who were at the hospital for different reasons got infected with coronavirus.