Please can someone explain why the death toll in Italy is escalating so much?

[Thelowquietsea]

I'm aware that there's a large number of elderly in Italy, they live intergenerationally, in fairly tight cities.

But they've been in lockdown for weeks. Why is the death toll jumping so significantly?

China has been lying about their real death toll. We only see their official "sanitised" figures; the ones they want us to believe. What we see happening in Italy is the real impact of the virus - we're seeing the real death rate, not the 2-3% death rate that the Chinese government would have us believe.

@LakieLady that sounds abysmal.

Here in Bulgaria, in small shops only 1/2 people are allowed in at once. One out, one in. There is sticky tape on the floor so people queue 2m apart. Same outside and same system (more people allowed in) at bigger shops. The only rule breaking I’ve seen is due to confusion (ie it took a few days to clarify that “take-away” means delivery only so a few places we’re doing “turn up and take away” until ordered to stop. But everyone just seems more accepting here (undoubtedly historical influence) that the government can just give orders that must be obeyed. All of it being immediately backed by a 5k fine and 5 yrs imprisonment and some swift prosecution initiations has helped too!

Can I just point out that at the very least 97% of people that get it make a full bloody recovery within a week . It us not the plague.
It’s dangerous for people with other respiratory conditions and that’s who we are looking out for. It’s not a excuse for the rest of the population to be sanctimonious twats.

China has been lying about their real death toll. We only see their official "sanitised" figures; the ones they want us to believe. What we see happening in Italy is the real impact of the virus - we're seeing the real death rate, not the 2-3% death rate that the Chinese government would have us believe.

Yes, there is absolutely zero reason to believe anything the Chinese regime comes out with is true.

Same as why ours is. People ignoring advice

It us not the plague.

^^Tell that to the Italians.

I work in healthcare, every doctor, nurse, and AHPs I know are very scared about what is to come.

DH has a close friend who is a nurse out there. 25% of the population are over 65 so literally 1/4 are automatically at risk. Many didn’t take government advice seriously and still continued to socialise until full lockdown happened. They are more touchy feely than us and their healthcare system is hugely overwhelmed, too many cases to cope with.

Oh and, as in Iran, extended families live together so grandparents live with their children, grandchildren, cousins etc. Not the British way at all, most old people live alone here.

We only see their official "sanitised" figures; the ones they want us to believe.

Same here in the UK though, which is the real reason the government didn't want mass testing. The death rate is also higher here but because the patients were not tested for Covid, they were not included in the numbers.

They locked down on 11th March at 827 deaths

My friend works at a hotel and she said they have 32 guests in this evening! They can not go to the bar or any of the restaurants but can have room service...I think they are being so selfish checking in and also the hotel for putting staff at risk.

All these stereotypes about the Italians, most outdated.
They are people who live very much like you.
They behaved very much like the UK is behaving now before their lockdown.
It’s a very contagious disease with a long incubation period.
You will know in two weeks what the consequences of today’s actions are.

"Can I just point out that at the very least 97% of people that get it make a full bloody recovery within a week"

That's not true

WHO report on China:

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf

Page 12 - 13 says:
80% mild/moderate disease

BUT
mild/moderate does NOT mean what you may think:

Page 13 shows about half are mild and half are "moderate"
where Moderate is defined as 'has pneumonia' but not bad enough for hospital

So COVID statistics breakdown (China) is:

40% mild
40% pneumonia - staying at home
13.8% severe disease - hospital, need oxygen
6.1% critical - need ICU

All these stereotypes about the Italians, most outdated.

Not really, they do kiss and hug to greet one another. DH’s friend lives with his extended family but has temporarily moved out to help protect them because he’s obviously on the front line daily. It is Italian culture to live with family in a way we Brits just don’t. We largely avoid one another at the best of times, let’s face it .

I understand that many Italians have coastal
Hideaways and when cities started closing , they fled to their coastal properties, hence spreading the virus further.

I was watching one of the news channels earlier and they were interviewing an Italian. Overall figures don't look good, however some villages/towns that went into total lockdown earlier than the others are now showing some slowdown.

Those who are dying in Italy are the ones who needed critical care beds - but they have run out

and the Italian health service has nearly twice as many critical care beds per 100,000 population as the UK

Italy waited too long to take serious measures and the epidemic has overwhelmed their health service

Because like the UK at the moment people are not following the rules

Before this, Italy had one of the highest life expectancies in the world,
so ntbo they have more very old people, age 85+, than nearly any other country

Multi-generational living is normally a great way to live, but sadly it increases the death rate during a pandemic

and yes, their culture is to kiss and hug when they meet, much more tactile than most other countries

They didn't react fast enough
By the time lockdown fully came into force there were a lot of cases (more than the official numbers because some are asymptomati so spread without ever being tested.
Deaths keep increasing because they haven't hit the peak. People dying now will have been infected weeks ago. There is a way to go before they hit the peak.
The lockdown isn't as stringent as in Wuhan (1 person allowed out every 3 days to buy food)
The health service is buckling under the weight and so people who might not normally die are dying as the system is under too much pressure.
All these things apply to the UK too. Except the UK hasn't even enacted half of the restrictions Italy has.

www.facebook.com/itsokaytobesmart/videos/213119293379367/

This video has been the clearest explanation I've seen yet, put in simple terms so easy to understand the spread.

They are heavy smokers...

This article from last month explains how the doctors think immune system responds - basically in some cases it triggers a massive response that causes inflammation of the lungs and subsequent damage to other organs. So there's a delay between initial infection, symptoms appearing, the immune system being overwhelmed then going into overdrive. You may be talking four weeks between exposure and mortality.

The ever increasing number of deaths is due to the lockdown not starting early enough - the virus was already in the community and spread to the vulnerable.

www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/why-some-covid-19-cases-are-worse-than-others-67160

Does anyone have any idea why the government here is not enforcing a proper lockdown? I genuinely don’t understand at this point.

Older population, social acceptability of smoking leads to much higher lung problems (yes folks smoking really does kill), a lot of people living in apartments where only outside space is a small balcony right next to another so in spreads even where people are staying at home. Someone coughs lands on next doors balcony hand goes on virus on the metal balcony rail
Where is can apparently live a long time. People still mixing. They haven’t flattened the curve so health system overwhelmed.