Please can someone explain why the death toll in Italy is escalating so much?

[Thelowquietsea]

I'm aware that there's a large number of elderly in Italy, they live intergenerationally, in fairly tight cities.

But they've been in lockdown for weeks. Why is the death toll jumping so significantly?

The one advantage we do have over Italy is that there are drug trials going on all over the world - an existing drug may turn out to have benefit.

One thing I have learnt is that the virus does respond to treatment - the ventilators work in most cases - it's just there aren't enough of them. It's not a resistant disease in the sense that Ebola once was or even like a antibiotic resistant bug. If an existing drug like chloroquine is found to help even 30% of the seriously affected that will help the 70% as well by reducing the pressure on ventilators. That's one good thing.

An effective treatment or vaccine will be found - there are drugs that treat Ebola now (after the rich world decided to get serious about it) , HIV is no longer a death sentence - the amount of money pouring in will produce a result. Some people have said there won't be a vaccine because there isn't one for SARS - well, a company did produce one but couldn't get funding for trials because the threat was held to be "over". It will happen which is why it's so important to hold the numbers down at the moment.

I don't know. I'm really scared now, I feel we're on a speeding train bracing for the crash. 😥

We are, I'm sorry to say. All you can do is brace yourself. Make sure you have paracetomol, a thermometer, meds for tickly cough and sore throat.

Make sure you know how you'd get to hospital if there were no ambulances available. (You will be too ill to drive if you get to the point you need hospitalisation). Think about where your DC would go if you go to hospital (if relevant).

That's what I can think of but maybe other people have more.

And STOP GOING OUT if you still are.

Incubation period is generally 5-14 days, but can be up to 24 days.

People then generally take up to 21 days to get to the point of needing help breathing.

Then additional days whilst they struggle before succumbing.

So it can easily take 4-6 days from infection til dying.

At the last Italian census just over 1% of Italian families still lived in multi-generational households.(Istat 2016)
In Britain it's 1.2 million people who live in multi-generational households. (Yougov survey 2019)

Or, almost exactly the same.

Italy didn't take it seriously enough initially, no. Only the hotspots were locked down and then there was a gradual extension of that. Schools in and near to the hotspots were closed totally as soon as the first cases appeared.Schools nationally on the 4th March.

On the 7th March the fact that Lombardia was locking down on the 8th caused a mass exodus of people to the south. (They were not "sent" as a pp has said, they fled)

In one Italian region (Puglia) the governor said on Thursday that 40% of those in critical condition had had contact with someone leaving Lombardia on the 7th. Estimates are that 200,000 left.

Those people were what persuaded the govt to take further measures 3 days later and place the whole of Italy on lockdown. That too has also been made more stringent as people didn't think it applied to them. Individual town councils are also imposing their own ever stricter rules (no dog walking, shops on restricted hours etc) Lockdown now is being policed very very strictly, sure there are twats who'll try and meet their mate, but they are very isolated incidents.

Lombardia is densely populated and industrialised. There are many tourist destinations nearby. 5 foreign borders in the north of Italy.

Patient 1 was a superspreader. Patient 0 was German and had left the country so it was a while before the real alarm was raised.

Etc etc.

But ultimately, no, not because Italians all live together (they don't, as the Istat figures show) Not because they're old, (Italians live so long because they're healthy by and large) Not because their health service is rubbish because it's excellent.

But because they didn't take it seriously and the initial measures were not far-reaching enough.

They are now, and peak contagion is expected in a few weeks with peak deaths rate following shortly.

Does critical care either country mean the same thing?

C sections in the States are routine. VB in the U.K. are routine.

Why are African Coronavirus so low? Because they have worse things to worry about than a virus that sees itself out in a week?

@Whoareyoudududu some Italians do it but lots don't, it's more common in the south in my experience. It's really unusual where I live in Italy for people to kiss as a greeting, in fact my in-laws still take the piss as the first time I met them I assumed it was the done thing and rushed around kissing the whole family.

I don't think it will be the same here. The British society is different to Italian society

This is wishful thinking. We are exactly tracking Italy at the moment. No evidence to say we're any different.

"According to mobile phone data, 40% of people in Italy think they know better than the scientists and are going out and about almost as normal* that's misrepresenting what they said, 40% are going out but that includes a lot of people going to work, not because they are ignoring the science. I don't disagree that it's too many though.

Personally I do hope they close all non-residential factories and offices (Conte held a meeting about it today). And of course there are plenty of idiots flouting the rules, but it's definitely not 40% of the country, most people are staying home when possible.

A little piece of good news.

twitter.com/davidasinclair/status/1241445985844371458

Study in China finds that as heat and humidity increases infection rates go down.

@Helpmechangemymindsetplease I think the lockdown here is imminent. Boris has been shutting everything done over the last few days and will probably announce lockdown tomorrow. I've also just been to the supermarket and overheard two members of staff talking about having to start work early tomorrow morning to put distance stickers on the floor 2m apart at the checkouts. That implies that at the very least they're going to be controlling how many people are in the supermarket at a time to avoid the mass exodus of panic buyers that we've seen over the last week or so.

Slightly off topic but how do you arrest someone while practising social distancing?

I think the lockdown here is imminent. Boris has been shutting everything done over the last few days and will probably announce lockdown tomorrow. I've also just been to the supermarket and overheard two members of staff talking about having to start work early tomorrow morning to put distance stickers on the floor 2m apart at the checkouts It is still very late. Our schools and pubs closed 8 day's ago, hairdressers, outpatients, GP surgeries I fear it was to late. Boris messed about way to long the result now 3000 are infected. I hope Ireland goes on full lock down soon although many are cautious except non essential shoppers who can't help themself.

Has anyone read anything about the link between the fashion/fabric tradein Nirthern Italy/Milan and manufacturing of garments in China ? There are direct flights between Italy and Wuhan that were not cancelled till after Chinese New Year. Italy also have a massive Chinese population which has been over the past 2 decades.

I'll see if I can find the piece and post a link.

Just inte5ested to know if others think this could be a factor alongside others listed for the shocking figures ?

I should preview

@flowerbombVR I ear that was nonsense but can't remember why.

A lot has been said about it, but no real proof. One of the biggest Chinese populations outside of China is in Prato, but that hasn't been any worse hit than anywhere else.
Patient 0 (a German) had contact with a visiting Chinese trade delegation so that is where it undoubtedly came from.
Milan fashion week was held just as cases began to increase but many designers limited public entrance and some were done with no public at all.

Bergamo which is the worst hit is not a textile town. Prato which is a textile town is not a hotspot despite a large Chinese community. Even in the North, Como with its silk industry and big links to China has not been hit that badly.

Bergamo is an airport hub which may have a lot more to do with it.

Affected parts of China were already starting to be locked down by Chinese New Year.

800 lives lost in a day

I also believe China is lying about the numbers, they lied and kept the virus under wraps till 31/12. The first case in the UK were visitors from Wuhan the end of January, the same date as Italy's first case.

@flowerbombVR I haven't seen anything about that but it's definitely something I've been wondering about. My stepdaughter works in the fashion industry and I know she's often in northern Italy for materials, with so much manufacturing in China it seems an obvious connection.

As others have said, the full nationwide lockdown took place too late and as it was quite recent, they are not yet seeing the full effects of it.

Numbers and dates are here: mobile.twitter.com/andreabagnato/status/1241068936692711426

Thanks for your opinions, like yourselves, I can't really find anything to back it up. I'm desperately hoping like everyone else that we do not follow the same trajectory as Italy.

That makes sense.

We are going the same way.
Stay the f**k at home.
What is unclear?

Have we got a recent demographic breakdown of Italy deaths?