Please can someone explain why the death toll in Italy is escalating so much?

[Thelowquietsea]

I'm aware that there's a large number of elderly in Italy, they live intergenerationally, in fairly tight cities.

But they've been in lockdown for weeks. Why is the death toll jumping so significantly?

They also have a much larger death rate from flu than the rest of Europe. Much much larger.

Research papers seemed to highlight flaws in their health system. I suspect it’s down to money really.

please lets not do the blame game - we are in a different world one that no one unless they have experience in pandemics could really anticipate - up to a week or so back, how many people were saying that this was that serious - because we have had no experience of anything like this in the west for years -we have lived in a world where we all believed that science & medicine & technology & money could cure anything & catastrophic things only happened elsewhere to people we don't identify with & whom are often identified as being somehow at fault - we were wrong then & this should bring a rethink

this is an old clip but it is very interesting primarily when he states that viruses don't have visa

@Helpwithaversion

"Because coronavirus is extremely contagious and they didn’t contain it quickly enough"

It's not extremely contagious. Each infected person only infects about 2-3 other people on average, which is not particularly high.

That's why we only need about 60% of the population to be immune to achieve herd immunity.

Unlike e.g. measles, where one infected person infects 12-18 others, so you need 95% immunity to stop it spreading widely.

The issue with this is that nobody is immune yet, so lots of people will get it at once.

Because people were ignoring lockdown & still partying in first weeks . And lots of families live 3generations to a home which means yet more elderly exposed on top of the larger proportion of elderly there anyway . People here are ignoring it too. My neighbours had all their family round all day today, as normal. Now the schools are off the family's kids playdates they normally do in hols will continue too I suppose. Idiots.

When the lockdown went into place in some parts of the North and Milan , the young people went to visit older folks in the south thus spreading it further to the most vulnerable. Similar to now where Londoners are heading to Cornwall. My next door neighbour has just packed the kids up and headed off somewhere in a camper van. Spreading a virus around the country when people should just be staying home.

Because this disease is insanely contagious and China and Iran (IMHO) weren't super above board with their cases and death rates so Italy is the first western country to be more upfront about the effect on their country.

They may have an older population but a good deal of people getting it there are relatively young, not ancient. Italy has a good healthcare system which is better than ours. They are two weeks head of us.
This isn't just an Italy-specific thing. It is coming. Sadly.

I dont know if this has been said but many people dont show symptoms but are contagious.

Those that do are usually contagious for 2 weeks before they start to show symptoms.
This is why everyone should stay at home.

How are Greece affected in this does anyone know? Culturally they are very similar to the Italians and Spanish. It does seem a very valid reason that multigenerational families living under one roof or very tight knit communities where young and old intertwine all the time could be why they are so seriously affected. Only time will tell how it pans out here. Heart goes out to all affected.

Some of it is down to simply the kind of exponential growth that you expect with this level of infectiousness.

Italian stats here:

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

They have seen deaths amongst previously healthy people in their 40s. I think they have not occurred in enough numbers to suggest the disease is behaving differently (low risk does not mean no risk, some doe in that age group).

It is truly truly terrifying

I have read speculation that as well as the reasons mentioned here, some of the Northern Italy fatalities could also be partially attributable the high altitude? and to the fact that so many Italians are smokers (southern Europe generally tend to have a very different attitude to smoking to the UK now, for example).

But this is pure speculation, may have no bearing at all. All I know is it's terrifying.

Those who are dying contracted the virus in late February before any shutdown took place.

It takes 5 days on average for symptoms to appear and those who passed away died an average of 18.5 days after symptoms began.

It was in the news recently that 40,000 people in Italy have been arrested and charged with breaking lockdown. Those were just the ones who were caught, who knows how many thousands of others could have flouted it and got away with it.

So while they might be officially on lockdown in reality it seems they're not.

It’s the exact same pattern here, just 2 weeks behind. The death rate is mirrored.

These stats are two days out of date:

1 in 4 (25.6%) of >90 years old Covid19 patients die
23.2% of 80-89 yo
1.2% of 50-59 yo
0.4-0.6 % 30-49 yo (no deaths under 30 yo)

10% in ICU are under 40.

Many people are still going to work. DC (off school for a month now) are often with grandparents.

Their health system has collapsed, they don't have the capacity to treat new cases, a lot of people die.

RosieJaune yes it is highly contagious. The reproduction number is 3 compared with seasonal flu at 1.6.

Just because the RO of measles is higher doesn't make CV - for which there is as yet no vaccine - anything other than a disaster.

Because there's a delay. It can be 2 - 3 weeks or longer before an infected person gets seriously ill. They didn't lockdown soon enough, and now hospitals are overwhelmed and people who picked up the disease 3 weeks ago are only now becoming very poorly, and they can't always get the treatment they need. It'll get worse before it gets better, someone beginning to show symptoms now might not die until April. And given the government slow response here, and the lack of testing, and the fact that people just can't fucking stop socialising, we are going to go the same way.

It won't work here. Brits are too ignorant

I don't think it will, sadly.

I went out very briefly today, for the first time after 8 days SI. We have 2 small, cramped convenience stores, side by side, at the bottom of the hill.

One had a few people in, the other had an elderly lady with shopping trolley, standing at the checkout, which is right by the door. I couldn't have got in the shop without going very close to her, so I waited a few feet away outside.

A man came along, coughing. Not coughing into his sleeve, not even putting his hand over his mouth. He looked at me as if I was some sort of weirdo for standing outside the shop, barged past the old lady, and pushed into the shop, still coughing.

I was so angry. I wanted to say something, but knew that I was so angry whatever I said would probably have included the words "moronic cunt" and I just stood there, seething.

And then I felt tearful. The old lady is the mother of someone I know slightly, a friend of my hairdresser. If I hear that X's mum has died of CV in a couple of weeks time, I'm going to hunt that man down.

And then while I was in the shop paying for my milk, two people came and stood behind me, and one of them actually pushed into me when he stood aside to let 4th person into this tiny shop.

Wtf is wrong with people? It's made me not want to go out again till this is over.

If people are going to be this selfish, stupid and downright ignorant they fucking well deserve to die.

There have been more deaths from CV per day for the last few days than for seasonal flu. And this is an only just starting.

The amount of time for which those who get it seriously, remain ill for several weeks. Even if they recover (not a given, even in young people) they take up ICU beds for a considerable time. Which means others who may have survived (whether CV, or other illness or accident) will die for lack of available intensive care.

According to mobile phone data, 40% of people in Italy think they know better than the scientists and are going out and about almost as normal. That's why I'm so frightened about here. Our high street was packed today. Whole families out in shops - seriously stupid.

I had to tell a man in the Post Office to back off as I could almost feel him breathing down my neck. When I explained that a significant proportion of Italian deaths are men he soon moved back. We actually ended up having a nice chat afterwards.

They didn't lock down quickly enough, or well enough. And neither have (or, I suspect, will) we.

My brother is in Italy and says the lockdown over there didn't happen soon enough and was flouted by so many initially that it actually only became valuable once it was enforced by law, by which time so many more had been infected than should have been.

I did wonder if their culture (generally very close families, children spending great deal of time with grandparents generation) is part of it, but my Brother is convinced that's not it. He says it's pure ignorance and arrogance, the likes of which we're seeing here hour upon hour.

I don't know. I'm really scared now, I feel we're on a speeding train bracing for the crash. 😥

I don't think it will be the same here. The British society is different to Italian society. Lots of older people here leave independently, far away from relatives. Many are in care homes. We are more law obedient.
Also only 0.8% of Italians who died of coronavirus had no previous health conditions. The rest had 1 or more.