Omg. The next step in the strategy. And if we all stick together it may work

[Bool]

Next step in UK strategy. Lock down all the over 70s (and other immunocompromised - kids / adults) for 4 months. Lock them down. Then make it illegal to close schools. That means we gain immunity to the virus as a population and keeps the beds open for the unusual cases that are not foreseen.

Again daisypond I didn’t say she wouldn’t follow the advice to self isolate, she wouldn’t want to burden others. I think she’d just give up on life completely though.
I’m not saying it’s the wrong strategy. I don’t have the answers (no one does). I just feel desperately sad for these elderly people whose family are literally the only thing left they have to live for. She was an avid painter and has already have to give that up due to failing eyesight, she has nothing else.

It is also extremely selfish to carry on and then expect to take an NHS bed because you wanted to mix with others even though you have been told of the risks.

Sadly at this present time this will hit the elderly more. We cannot fix this.

@royalalfred the video makes sense but if we’re not testing, how do we know when we’ve reached the peak?

Because Boris IS expecting 40,000,000 people (that's the lower, 60%) to become infected over a relatively short period of time.

Not Boris. The experts have been saying this since Jan. Go listen to Prof. Neil Ferguson from Imperial college. At 1% 40M = 400k dead. But they will be the old and those with pre-existing conditions. The only way to reduce that number is to lock up the old and those with pre-existing conditions. People think the strangers are a danger to their families and don't realise you are more of a danger to them than any stranger due to your close contact

Does it really sound that unreasonable for the entire country to come together for a year or so to prevent this?
No but this will not work. Based on it's transmissibility profile the horse has bolted. It will not be contained now. That is the advice of the experts. You can only slow it. If you shut the entire country down till September, you can still get re-infected and the economic damage from closing the country down for even a month will be disastrous. People will lose homes, NHS will fall apart this, country will be destroyed.

What would happen if we just let it run its course? I read something earlier where someone said we should think back to the chicken pox parties that used to happen. It got kids over the virus and they then had immunity. Yes, some got seriously ill but the thoughts of the person were that this would have happened anyway.

Would the over 70s being put into lockdown for 4 months not just delay the inevitable?

@HoffiCoffi13. I do understand. I have similar issues with my elderly parents.

Although I don’t like the idea of a blanket lockdown for a group due to age, I do think elderly and vulnerable people need to take extra precautions about social distancing whenever possible and be able to do this. There needs to be clear guidelines up from staying in with cough/fever onto stay away from others if you have the following conditions etc. Not all over 70s are vulnerable and many under are.

So, isolate the old.

But encourage those below 70 to self isolate to slow the spread ONLY if they show symptoms?

Wouldn’t it be better to encourage a quicker spread if they want 60% herd immunity?

Or do we want our old people locked up for the next 12-18 months maybe?

Most of you are forgetting that herd immunity development is actually quite a big ‘if’.

The WHO are clear that one of their major concerns is that the virus mutates in transmission to become more deadly. Every transmission increases this likelihood.

So we might sacrifice nearly half a million people for the grand prize of creating a more deadly virus.

Has this not occurred to all the people applauding the government’s position?

Apollo without this measure if you get CV there is a high chance care will be triaged. So you can stay apart from everyone else to lower the chance if that happening or if you refuse it’s a risk.

Most of you are forgetting that herd immunity development is actually quite a big ‘if’.

Regardless. There is a thing out there right now, killing old people. Some are already dead and don't realise it yet. It would be irresponsible not to ask your loved ones to self-isolate....even from you.

@christmassausages it's about slowing it down so the nhs is better able to cope. If we let it rip through the population full speed there will be no life saving treatment available for anyone.

This whole post is so frustrating. People are just not seeing the bigger picture here. Have you read the accounts in Italy? We are going the same way. Schools will shut. You won’t have to worry about childcare because there will be a hell of a lot more to worry about. The government are just taking small steps to change behaviours.

MummyPop00 they want to flatten the peak to draw out the number of infections requiring hospitalisation to a level where the NHS can continue to cope. It is a coping strategy to keep the country functioning while we are in the active infection stage.

Herd immunity is one of the end game options to get this whole thing to go away. Other scenarios are let everyone die, develop a vaccination and I am sure there will others that will be looked at.

Many hard questions with difficult answers are going to be asked in the coming weeks and months. If the over 70s do not wish to isolate My view is they should be denied all access to the NHS as they are essentially choosing to endanger their lives and WILL become an unnecessary burden on the vital services needed to help those who are following the rules.

The herd immunity is an if, but it is the more probable outcome based on how other coronaviruses behave.

Being able to reduce the numbers of infections low enough and then prevent them coming in from other countries - which is what would be required for full lockdown scenarios to work - is a huge if too

@unescorted Yes I get that, but by flattening the peak aren’t we also potentially lengthening the amount of time pensioners have to be locked away for?

Personally I think total lockdown won't be possible. Shielding the vulnerable is much more sustainable. Schools will close in 3 weeks because of the Easter holidays. The feeling within education is that the schools will close earlier maybe this Friday and the holidays will be extended.

There's a balance between flattening the peak and lengthening the lockdown - they basically want this to go through the healthy population as fast as the NHS can cope with (and coping will not have its normal definition here) so will probably use other measures like school closures etc for a short time as we're entering the peak.

Mummy I think the reality is they will be locked away for a lot longer than 4 months. This thing isn’t going to go away, it’s in the population now and there’s no stopping it. For the country to survive this we must slow the burden on the NHS and the workers.

This is going to cripple our health services in ways we can not fathom right now. Drs and Nurses Taking time off will be extremely hard once the workers start getting ill, they will burn out very quickly with no end in sight.

I don’t see any strategy working unless it’s a global one. Capitalism doesn’t work in a public health situation like this one and no government can afford to prop up every industry decimated by this and every family financially ruined.

That means we gain immunity to the virus

Do you know something about this virus that the scientists don't? As far as I know it's a mutating virus, there will be no immunity.

Irish and German gave open school dates for April. That is not going to happen. Madness if so.

So if we do it from April to Sept say it’s just a matter of timing. I don’t think ours is off.

Nobody has any idea if herd immunity is actually a thing for coronavirus.

If you think about the coronavirus that causes the common cold, we don't seem to have herd immunity, do we? Or influenza?

This is all highly speculative and therefore dangerous nonsense. In a quest to get herd immunity, even if you lock down everyone over 70 and with health conditions that make them vulnerable (which I question the reality of to what extent can elderly dependent people really be properly isolated, or would the lack of care kill them?) EVEN IF you do this, hundreds of thousands of Britons will die.

This is why most countries are trying to shut it down rather than let it spread.

But hey, of course our strategy is great.

All well and good if they get a vaccine sorted out if not and it extends further and there’s no vaccine in sight what are these vulnerable groups meant to do ?
Will they then be told to come out of isolation with the virus in circulation or will some get fed up and go out anyway
The only real answer lies in a vaccine to protect these groups.

Keeping schools open if you have vulnerable parents or siblings of those in school is counterproductive as they’ll only bring it home so you’d have to then quarantine healthy members if one of the household is in a vulnerable group