Gobsmacked by UK response

[Aspoonfullofjam]

Stay at home for one week if you’ve a cold (even though all evidence is that incubation is two weeks)

People over 70 don’t go on cruises.

WHAT!!!

134 new cases in a day and no action. 13 EU countries have closed all schools, another 11 partial closures but apparently no action needed in Uk.

Jesus.

So to all the 'experts' on here slagging off the Tories, how do you think any of the other parties would have coped IF they had been elected?

The Tories have been in power for 10 years. They have fucked over the NHS. We are following this plan because the Tory-fucked-over NHS isn't as robust as it might have been in different hands.

Boris Johnson is a duplicitous, lying conman. The Tories famously don't give a shit about the poor and vulnerable. No wonder they're not trusted. They can't trade on lies, bullshit and cruelty and then whine 'trust us.'

The Tories deserve every single bit of fucking criticism coming their way.

nellodee

It's early stages but there's a slightly flatter trajectory to the blue dots on your graph, so no I don't think they're identical. The trajectories cross over at one point. I also don't know why you introduce a delay. We got our first confirmed cases at the same time Italy did (end of Jan) so either something different is happening in terms of transmission rates, or we have way better surveillance than Italy and caught the first cases earlier (which you would also expect to have some limiting effect on initial transmission and so slow down the rate of the epidemic).

Patterns of transmission in Italy may well be different because social structures and behaviours may be subtly different, e.g. more people, on average, living in multi-generation households. People, particularly elderly people, might as a result have more close social contacts on average than in the UK, and so the disease may move through the population in a slightly different way (e.g. faster, possibly. We won't know until we have more UK data to compare). There may also be other behavioural differences. Disease severity and outcomes in Italy will also be different because on average the population is older than in the UK.

To be clear, I don't think this means the UK isn't going to get an epidemic. A epidemic is clearly about to take off and when it does it will follow an epidemic curve of some shape or other because nobody has any resistance to the infection. But the point is that differences between populations and behaviours make a difference to which actions you need to take to slow down transmission in different settings. You are taking a risk if you assume that something that works in one place works in another. (plus what evidence is there that any measure is having an impact on transmission in Italy?)

@nellodee

exactly how different are we doing it though. Germany/Netherlands arent actually that different to us at the moment either. France/Spain/Switzerland have partial closures.

When you break it down we arent actually that different to everyone else (I had a link earlier) apart from actually being quite open about what we are doing

It isnt going to be a pleasant process at all no matter what we do and we do still have a choice as to what we can and cant do at the moment

a total fucking joke!

We are apparently 4 weeks behind Italy, if we do nothing as BoJo advocates we'll soon catch them up!
Why not even TRY to slow down the spread, it's like a countrywide chicken pox party!

France has 4x our death rate and hasn’t closed all schools just certain areas

and that twat across the pond, banning all flights from Europe...apart from the UK & Ireland... WTF

I am recovering from pneumonia at the moment, and have only just returned to work, I have not been that concerned until today. I think that I shall be speaking to my respiratory specialist nurse tomorrow as I work in a people facing job in the NHS, and also speak to my manager to see if I can be redeployed to not be in contact with the public.

I thought the conference was well handled. The 2 health officials on either side of Boris were calm and convincing.

Boris said himself that we are 4 weeks behind Italy

The idea isn’t to stop the peak then
If you isolate now with four weeks to go people will ignore. Many people still have to go to work

Nhs will try stay in work even if kids off initially but then likely exhaust their efforts and be off during the peak viral time which no one wants

Isolating next week or week after with a month with kids of school seems to me his plan and time wise looks ideal

@NeckPainChairSearch So would would the other parties have done differently?

*what would

I introduced a delay to show you the near identical parts of the graph. No, you are right, they are not -absolutely- identical. Here's the two plotted logarithmically, without the 10 day delay. Different trajectory? Not so much.

We're a fortnight behind Italy, at most.

The economy probably will be fucked

I think this is it case regardless. We have 10 wks until peak I can't see people carrying on as normal to then a) who wants to mix as much b) who wants to spend as much when you need to save as you may be reliant on stat sick pay

4 weeks nellodee

Listen to what the former director of public health is saying on Question Time atm, we're not even automatically testing people coming in from Northern Italy.. all other countries are pro-active, we're doing nothing.. etc etc

So would would the other parties have done differently?

How should I know? How is that relevant? Should we criticize the Tories less because Corbyn is a disaster?

If Labour had formed a government at the last election, they would still be dealing with a fucked NHS, thanks to the Tories. They couldn't have fixed it in a few weeks.

The Tories deserve every bit of criticism leveled at them on their own merits, history and actions - not in comparison to any other party.

In Belgium they've just shut everything, bar groceries and pharmacy, gone full on Italy already, schools will accept children where there is a need, so there is no call on GPS for childcare (explicitly impressed). Bit scary but at least they are taking it seriously.

@sunshine1239 actually our schools universities nurseries crèches etc are all closed until further notice, from Monday.

They reckon the virus was circulating in Italy for quite a while before the first case was itedentified- so in reality they had the virus quite a while before the first case in the UK. I don't think we have fewer cases because of the governments efforts, it's just a matter of time now before we catch up and stupid advice about cruises won't help us!

Oops sorry, in France.

Princess there are so many ways to tackle issues arnt there.

So much better to keep schools partially open, better than full exposure etc to students.

Freak, we are an island maybe we will be fleeing soon to get to a country that imposes rigorous methods to control this

Is it because the country won't cope but they are trying to conserve what they can when the peak hits hence not bothering with checks after travel?

I thought the explanations for the approach were rational.

Read an on-line comment from a doctor saying that he hopes he catches it sooner rather than later so he could then treat more vulnerable patients without having to worry if he was passing on the virus.