worried about coronavirus (covid19) part 16

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Helpful links

WHO media speech for world plan of action

updated data on this page every day at 2pm until further notice.
www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public#number-of-cases

WHO advice for the public
www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public

Its not just like flu www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/01/yes-it-is-worse-than-the-flu-busting-the-coronavirus-myths

Why WHO not declaring a pandemic www.newscientist.com/article/2235342-covid-19-why-wont-the-who-officially-declare-a-coronavirus-pandemic/

Worldometer www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

BNO News bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

Link to WHO report www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019

The Lancet coronavirus hub - latest research and comment www.thelancet.com/coronavirus

JAMA coronavirus research centre jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/pages/coronavirus-alert

Please add in other links for any wanting to increase their understanding and decrease their anxiety!

Hairy

I don't know how it can slow down when possible hosts have fled South to start up transmission lines there

Not posting to scaremonger but this is looking increasing bad. Scientific and professional consensus is agreement that this is a serious situation.

It is the UK govt (and other govts to be fair) that are playing this disease down. Follow epidemiologist at Harvard Eric Feigl-Ding.

Are people dying because they are not getting suitable care? Or not quickly enough?

I hadn't heard of worldometers but that looks about right.

It’s exactly where it’s from

For those who want the same info look here and avoid the need for it to be sensationalised on this thread

And the funniest thing is, I never use worldometers.. go figure

@ofwarren I am delurking to thank you for your updates, I have been reading for many threads now and really appreciate them.

I did some maths for this. Concluded at current rates it would be critical care overwhelmed first, and would be overwhelmed at 1% population infection.

To calculate this I assumed 5% needing critical care and 50% of infections occuring over a 3 week period but that those infected would only need 1 week each in critical care. I based the number of critical care beds on a 2012 study, but I don't think numbers will have changed materially since then.

If you assume that critical care beds can be tripled by utilising theatres etc. (optimistic I think, but willing to be corrected) then we are still overwhelmed by 5% infection rate with the same 3 week peak.

Highlights the importance of flattening that peak out. I did the maths hoping to be reassured. I wasn't reassured.

I did a variety of scenarios, see screenshot attached.

My thinking is that the critical cases are low in the UK because we have been picking up the cases quickly at very early stages

I'm not sure there is currently a treatment which will stop an early detected case from becoming severe, if it is going to? Not yet, anyway. Unless you mean that most of them have not yet had time to become severe - which is possible, I suppose...

KeepOn sorry my last post was aimed at you but forgot to mention your name after I lost the first version of it!

Yes, now the brexit thread shit stirrers have got less to post about there they've jumped on this.

Thank you @springsandthings and everyone else who is appreciative.

@ofwarren I appreciate your posts, thank you. Maybe some posters would prefer a meta analysis of all the data?

@Nacreous

Good mathsing.

Of course, you have presupposed that no critical beds are going to be needed for people suffering from other illnesses... Not that you have any way of knowing figures for that.

But hey. Plan for the worst, hope for the best.

1 in 6 need ICU's very much dount NHS will be able to cope should this spread quickly.

twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1236516883559526400?s=19

Oak ahh yes that was another but that I wrote in the first version but forgot after I lost my post. Thanks for pointing out!

"Thank you @springsandthings and everyone else who is appreciative."

If you're posting this guff to be appreciated that is very worrying.

I thought Italy had been testing far more religiously than anybody else though (to pp asking if the issue was Italy not testing enough)?

www.bournemouthecho.co.uk/news/18290351.amp/?ref=twtrec&__twitter_impression=true
Coronavirus: Two people test positive for COVID-19 in Bournemouth area

@seasmize

Also, the chief medical officer has confirmed that this will have massive economic impact, with very little benefit, as yet unknown benefit - as children do not have the receptors in their lungs that CV19 binds to.

That’s false I’m afraid. A recent study from Shenzhen showed children got it as much as anyone, just more mildly.

Its not false, because it is what the CMO said, based on unknown, as yet data on children who have shown little affect.

However, your link is to, as yet, not peer reviewed research. Its important to note such things before linking for others to read.

Third uncertainty, how many are asymptomatic, or mild symptoms, this is estimated to be as much as 80%, 14% severe, 6% critical (CMO)

am I missing something? there was a French politician critically Ill with coronavirus, it was in The Express 2 days ago.

and the NY numbers are quoted in most of the American news outlets.

so what has OfWarren done or not done?

I can understand that from a projection and risk assessment point of view knowing that the over 60s with underlying health issues is possibly the highest risk group, but I'm very fond of the large numbers of people in that criteria related to me, as are many others. Talk about rocks and hard frigging places.......

Yes, now the brexit thread shit stirrers have got less to post about there they've jumped on this

I’m assuming that’s a dig at me.

There are several prolific anti Brexit posters on these threads who are now doom mongering about this.

We have to deal with Brexit and we have to deal with CV. The only difference is, no one voted for CV.

Both are mainly outside of our control so we just have to take precautions and not get hysterical.

@SuckingDieselFella

Can you please desist with insulting other contributors.

A lot of people are very worried and want to discuss and try to prepare to keep as safe as they can.

Berating others and what they post in such an inflammatory manner is unhelpful in the extreme.

@NewYearNewTwatName

As I said, the French politician she told us was infected, wasn't infected. She also told us the ruler of Dubai was infected and there is no credible source for this.

Her source for the information was reddit. I wouldn't want to base major decisions on info from reddit but each to their own.

Been lurking on and off, it's a bit on the panicky edge in here at times, but useful info nonetheless.

This graph showing case rates per million by country over time is illuminating. twitter.com/behrooz_hm/status/1236546012715446272?s=19