@tud41
Worst case scenarios are always used in the modelling of viral outbreak.
I hope you are reading this, as undoubtedly yhere will be pedalling back, because it IS worst case scenario.
CMO has said 80% worst case scenario. They have to use this to plan so as not to fall over, or else plan to fall over!
Data experience, development of treatment and protocols, should bring this down.
We have more information and development to base our attack on.