worried about coronavirus (covid19) part 15

[usernameishistory]

Helpful links

WHO media speech for world plan of action

updated data on this page every day at 2pm until further notice.
www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public#number-of-cases

It's not just like flu www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/01/yes-it-is-worse-than-the-flu-busting-the-coronavirus-myths

Why WHO not declaring a pandemic www.newscientist.com/article/2235342-covid-19-why-wont-the-who-officially-declare-a-coronavirus-pandemic/

Worldometer www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

BNO News bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

Link to WHO report www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019

The Lancet coronavirus hub - latest research and comment www.thelancet.com/coronavirus

JAMA coronavirus research centre jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/pages/coronavirus-alert

Really alarming Telegraph graphic where you press Play to see how CV19 spread over time,

e.g. in just the last month from pic 1 to pic 2, 6 Feb - 6 March
Shit.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-map-live-cases-death-toll-world-latest/?lisource=LI&lii_medium=liftigniter

Choux - I totally agree. We need to take steps now or we are Italy in 2 weeks time

DH has an answer on why they're only testing based on contact / travel: there's simply not enough tests. This is why testing hasn't moved with the emerging evidence of spread through the community - simply no capacity.

That's it really! Our numbers will not be accurate and we are not effectively containing any more. Time for gin.

there's simply not enough tests.

That's it really! Our numbers will not be accurate and we are not effectively containing any more. Time for gin.

Although it's unsurprising news, it's depressing to hear the speculation turn into confirmation.

Will Italy let people back in? Just thinking of all those people at Crufts!

I’m so cross Crufts was allowed to go ahead, with 400 Italian entries, each probably bring two people at least with them, is 800 people into the country in an targeted area. You are not telling me no one in that 800 is not carrying CV?

Any statisticians out there?

justchecking1 Sat 07-Mar-20 17:57:08
The sentinel programme has started and the figures are included in the test results. It started about ten days ago.

Are you sure? The numbers tested just don't seem high enough to me.

All ITU patients are supposed to be tested- 4000 ITU beds in the U.K., probably around 1000-2000 patients with pneumonia.
Justchecking the move to testing ALL ITU patients was reported on 3 March so quite recent .

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/03/thousands-of-intensive-care-patients-to-be-tested-for-covid-19

100 GP practices, probably encompasses around 400-500 GPs, each seeing around 25-30 (conservative estimate) patients a day, meaning 10,000-15,000 consultations per day. At this time of year at least 1/3 are going to be for some kind of flu type symptom, meaning around 3,000-5,000 tests every day.

Just adding these two sets together, and using the lower estimate, we should have tested over 32,000 people in those 10 days. That's not even including all the 111 referrals for travel history/contact tracing.

Yet we're only seeing around 1800 tested a day? 20,000 since we started testing back in January? Either there is an absolutely enormous backlog of tests, or the sentinel screening hasn't started yet

About many more men being affected- yes this has been mentioned quite a bit about women being in lesser numbers something to do with the immune system. I shared some links in another thread if anyone is interested.

I guessed that they did not have enough tests - all politics - hence why we see Boris at a Med Company in Bedfordshire who can manufacture them....

Surely it's better to use the tests that are being used by the rest of the world even if they are only 80% plus accurate.

What a mess - not prepared at all...and finance is obviously an issue

@peridito - is not enough tests an explanation for both the apparent backlog and the invisibility of the sentinel cases / noncases?

*there's simply not enough tests.

That's it really! Our numbers will not be accurate and we are not effectively containing any more. Time for gin.*

This is something I wondered early on when the cases in Wuhan were increasingly steadily - whether the number of tests per day was maxed out and the numbers were reflecting that, not the number of infected who were seeking tests.

“Cases per 1m population” is an interesting new column in the Worldometers table. South Korea leads the world on this by a long way.

The uk is not containing anything because no measures have been introduced to contain anything.
I arrived from HK with Chinese nationals, no restrictions at Heathrow, just advice to call 111 if you have been in China and develop any symptoms. Contras this with Australia- coming from China you have to self isolate for 14 days regardless of symptoms and this started on 1st Feb.

Sorry ,I was reposting Justchecking's posts in case with the evening crowd there might be more discussion .

I'm convinced these "community" tests aren't being reported .

"80% of 80 years olds might survive but how many will walk away from this illness without being harmed by it?"

How many younger people too, or at least age 40-60, when the WHO "moderate" symptoms means pneumonia

Statistics breakdown for all cases is:

40% mild = anywhere from mild cold --> proper flu
40% "moderate" = pneumonia
13.8% severe disease = need oxygen
6.1% critical = need ICU

We can presume nearly all young were in the mild - moderate category,
but how many were in the moderate

@Bottleofcorona @Coquohvan I’ve just read in an Spanish newspaper nobody allowed in or out of the area until at least the 3rd of April. They’re not even allowed to move around between counties.

I hope our flights are def cancelled and we get our money back now. I’ll speak to EasyJet tomorrow once the law is out

I am honestly so relieved DM died, very frail, of pneumonia back in Nov 2018 so I dont have to worry about her now. Just the PIL now to worry about - 90 and 82 but pretty fit and compos mentis, and all the other shit we all have in our lives...

amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/07/italy-democratic-leader-nicola-zingaretti-coronavirus?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_gu&utm_medium=&utm_source=Twitter&__twitter_impression=true
Leader of Italian Democratic party has coronavirus
Nicola Zingaretti is first leading Italian politician to test positive for the virus

Zingaretti is the first leading Italian politician confirmed to have the disease. Two councillors in Lombardy, the northern region worst hit by the virus, tested positive last week and a police officer who is part of the security team for Matteo Salvini, the leader of the League, tested positive on Friday.

Zingaretti was elected the leader of the Democratic party, which rules in coalition with the Five Star Movement, in March last year.

Exactly what happened in China, quarantine provisions were put in place if you moved between cities.

Yes GP'swife I think you're right . And how on earth the labs coping with processing all these extra tests on top of their usual work ?

I understand it's quite a lengthy process . Maybe the UK will move to a simpler/faster blood prick test .Media reports somewhere about work being done on this .

And as an aside I think lack of facilities to process the tests is a problem in USA .

news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-italy-to-tell-people-not-to-enter-or-leave-regions-worst-hit-by-outbreak-11952487
Coronavirus: Milan set for lockdown with Italy poised to shut worst-hit region

Schools will be closed until at least 3 April in all areas covered by the decree - including towns in Emilia-Romagna, Veneto and Piedmont.

Museums, gyms and swimming pools will also close and holiday is cancelled for all health care workers, according to the decree which has been seen by Reuters news agency.

LEAVE CANCELLED FOR ALL HEALTH CARE WORKERS.

NEW: San Francisco reports 6 new cases of coronavirus, raising city's total to 8 t.co/eUoE2b20hL

Another cruise ship outbreak - this time in Egypt, with 45 cases so far:

Guardian link

Another cruise ship outbreak

Not surprising, but potentially awful news.

Why anyone would now willingly get on board a floating virus factory is beyond me.

PM has visited a lab in Bedfordshire where British scientists are using expertise and experience from previous epidemics to create a quicker and cheaper way to diagnose coronavirus
www.gov.uk/government/news/pm-announces-new-funding-in-fight-against-spread-of-coronavirus

Are there no checks at UK airports, no records kept to enable monitoring of individual passengers & their contacts if it later proves necessary ?
Surely must be some ?

e.g. This is what Germany has been doing:

https://www.bundesgesundheitsministerium.de/en/press/2020/coronavirus.html#c17363

"Before landing in Germany, pilots on flights from Iran, Italy, Japan, South Korea or China must transmit the Aircraft Declaration of Health to the authorities.

Before disembarking from the aircraft or ship, passengers arriving in Germany from Iran, Italy, Japan or South Korea by plane or ship,
must provide information on their flight/trip and on where they can be reached for the 30 days after arrival.
This is done with the disembarkation card:

Passengers from China to Germany must provide additional information on where they were staying in China, persons with whom they were in contact and their state of health.
In this case, this disembarkation card must be used.

Airlines, ship-owners, charterers and all other persons and all other persons responsible for operating ships must keep the data on flights and trips to Germany from Iran, Italy, Japan, South Korea and China available for a period of 30 days after arrival."

There are also measures for those arriving by train whose original departure point came from one of those countries