worried about coronavirus (covid19) part 15

[usernameishistory]

Helpful links

WHO media speech for world plan of action

updated data on this page every day at 2pm until further notice.
www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public#number-of-cases

It's not just like flu www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/01/yes-it-is-worse-than-the-flu-busting-the-coronavirus-myths

Why WHO not declaring a pandemic www.newscientist.com/article/2235342-covid-19-why-wont-the-who-officially-declare-a-coronavirus-pandemic/

Worldometer www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

BNO News bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

Link to WHO report www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019

The Lancet coronavirus hub - latest research and comment www.thelancet.com/coronavirus

JAMA coronavirus research centre jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/pages/coronavirus-alert

choux Yes, worrying chart for Germany

So far, although large public gatherings have mostly been cancelled, except for some sports events,
people are still going to gym - slightly fewer numbers -
and restaurants - my fav eating place is still packed

I've tentatively thought that the UK being an island will mean the UK won't be as badly hit

Slightly more reassuring global chart with recoveries, dominated by China obv
All depends on whether we get a big 2nd wave next winter, there and / or in Europe,
or indeed whether we don't get the expected sharp fall in summer

Is it bad that I am developing a playlist for when we're either self isolating or recovering. I currently have rewatching Sherlock at the top with maybe Scrubs next. Possibly start Vikings as I've heard good things.

"say logically we WILL not be keeping 70+ alive on o2 of it is needed for younger people."

Political death for any party to publicly state this, as a v high % of that age group vote

However, I suspect doctors would decide this routinely ?
Any doctors in the house / thread ?

I'm finding it hard to rationalise cuttingt back on the kids extra curricular activities when they are still going to school.
So today we still did swimming lessons and we did cubs and rainbows earlier in the week and probably will do this week. I'm just making sure they wash their hands and asking them not to touch their faces when out and about.
I've decided to keep the 3 yo who licks stuff and put things in his mouth, confined to big open field and woodland walks though. Washing his hands is also a huge battle and I've run out of hand gel.
I'll probably be the one who gets it though as I'm a teacher in a large crowded comprehensive in our local city.... I can't not go to work!

GpsWife
Is there anything that would help at home?
Oxgen?
Oxygen concentrator??
Italy's numbers -how are they treating them?
Are they giving them antivirals?

Also do those distributing and making food need to be wearing masks and gloves?

@BigChocFrenzy this is the nearest thing I've seen for the UK. Apologies - it's from the Fail.

Where does the hoped for drop in summer theory come from? The pandemic curves I've seen suggest that early summer is exact when the peak will hit if we don't take drastic social distancing actions.

That 3 wise men protocol basically said that...
Though will we have 3 wise men left to decide??

Germany and China are both very efficient they can see what is going on

Also if those Italy figures are correct. Are some of the deaths due to difficult decisions?

I think the truth is starting to come out

There could be two peaks as there were with swine flu. May be spring and then early autumn?

I will ask DH if he ever escapes from the out of hours centre . His should be considered the 'proper' answer.

However I have a pulse oximeter and accurate Braun thermometer with disposable covers at home. We also have some chloroquine phosphate for in extremis (after yesterday's posts I'm now terrified of going bald if I take it0 and I ordered some Vicks First Defence today as some kind of nose-based placebo (nos-ebo? a nocebo is a different thing ;)) for use if nursing an infected child.

I doubt I could get hold of home oxygen supplies ... but I'll be honest and say that if any were available, I would possibly have considered getting them . My prepping instincts are mainly hampered by financial constraints / knowing what DH would say.

I think with Italy its 61% of known cases, given the spread abroad there must be a lot out there.

Same is true sadly for London I think there have been people testing abroad with a travel history of London that means it must be more wide spread

I guess the problem is the mild to moderate cases are so difficult to distinguish from other viruses and testing criteria is such

blog.datawrapper.de/coronaviruscharts/#line-chart-worldwide is interesting as it shows it takes time for recovery (which makes sense) so at the moment the stats are going to look more frightening

But even now the Spanish Flu death rate and stats arent 100% accurate so I suspect this will never be either

Italy though as a 72/28 death rate bias against men - I wonder if smoking here perhaps as that is definitely an odd stat

China is very efficient and had the advantage that when shutdown stated we were already at the start of a national holiday so a lot of businesses were already shut and schools were already on holiday.

Started, not stated.

I'm wondering about home cpap machines, like the snorinators

Moldova reports first case of coronavirus t.co/eUoE2b20hL

I think it's somewhat understood the young would be saved before the old when decisions had to be made. It's a modern day equivalent of putting children (and their mothers) in lifeboats first.

But stating now that the old are to be sacrificed ahead of taking other preventative actions is political suicide. Especially for the Conservatives.

ITALY—EXTENDED LOCKDOWN:
Lombardy region
Modena province
Parma province
Piacenza province
Reggio Emilia province
Rimini province
Pesaro Urbino province
Venice province
Padova province
Treviso province
Asti province
Alessandria province

That's a good UK chart, choux, thanks

I cannot for the life of me understand why people buy tinned tomatoes. They need the fuck cooked out of them before you can eat them. Surely there are better alternatives, prep wise?

Two people have tested positive for the new #coronavirus after taking part in a pro-#Israel lobby group's conference in Washington which Vice President Mike Pence, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and dozens of lawmakers also attended.

t.co/0oD4fdprTO

These Italian figures are horrendous.

Last Sat 1200 had it. Now there are 6000.

At this rate there will be 30,000 next Sat and 150,000 the Sat after.

Of those 6000, almost 250 have now died but how many of the 6000 are in the not recovered and not died yet group, bearing in mind most of them have only been diagnosed in the last week.

The death rate is 4% based on positive test but I would guess that if it didn’t infect one other person, that rate is going to increase to 10 or 15%.

I think this is much worse than we are being told.

*Italy though as a 72/28 death rate bias against men - I wonder if smoking here perhaps as that is definitely an odd stat
*
That is unusual especially as women generally have a longer life expectancy than men and half of all deaths in Italy are in over 80s. Suggests the vast majority of over 80s men infected die. I can't suggest a theory for that.

A second member of #France’s National Assembly has been taken to hospital after contracting #coronavirus and five other lawmakers are being tested for the illness, the lower house’s presidency said in a statement on Saturday.
t.co/GM2No4HQMq

I've read that UK cases should peak within a couple of months, then fall sharply by summer
That is probably going by the usual fall in viral illness then, plus the time pattern in China

BUT I don't know if those 2 factors will hold for Coronavirus

• is there an official prediction of this from UK public health professionals ?

Also, will it spike again in Autumn or next winter, when we still won't have a mass vaccination ?

The big issue is the eventual infection rate,
whether we reach the govt "reasonable worst case" of 60-80% being infected
or whether it is nearer the sub-1% levels in China, or somewhere between

Best case ?
1% infected in the UK would be about 650,000 cases, so probably 5,000- 20,000 deaths providing the NHS stays afloat,
maybe 1-2 x the deaths in a bad flu year, but we'll also get the usual flu deaths too

60-80% infected is just ..... can't compute

Not sure if this link has been shared previously, apologies if it has

www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Washington state reports 22 new cases of coronavirus and 3 new deaths, raising total to 102 cases and 16 dead t.co/eUoE2b20hL