Coronavirus thread 13

[KenAdams]

Previous thread here.

We are using Worldometer, BDO and Dr John Campbell videos as part of the discussions.

Did you see Chris Whitty coughing in the select committee with Jeremy Hunt? They had to laugh.

I have chest trouble and get so paranoid about coughing in public I end up doing it more.

@minkowski that's good. My friend works there and went home last week with "strange" symptoms which fitted Coronavirus except no fever. Hope he's ok!

I wish they would a least start temp checking people at schools and nurseries etc. If fever is so often the first sign then anyone with a temperature should be told to go home.

Yes, agree - the normal policy of schools to maximise attendance and calpol kids and send in needs to be put on hold and everyone with a fever told to stay home. I kept DD2 (3 years old) off nursery today even though she only has a snotty nose and no fever. I can keep her off very easily without any problems for us, and I think minimising the spread of ALL disease is beneficial and will reduce stress on the NHS. Whilst this is a mild cold for her, for someone who's immunosuppressed it could be far worse.

I don't understand in all the threads where people are thinking of travelling and worried about whether they'll 'catch it' they never seem to worry about transmitting it to vulnerable people. Reduce travel, reduce the spread, reduce transmission to the vulnerable. It's so obvious. People genuinely don't seem to be able to see the bigger picture.

I'd like to think there was careful planning behind the scenes but my suspicion is that the scientists / epidemiologists are telling the government to do lots of practical things and the government are delaying because they're worried about economic impact (in a very short term way because if the virus takes hold the economic impact will be worse). They do have form for 'hoping for the best' on no factual evidence whatsoever (Brexit most notably: whether you voted leave or remain I don't think anyone can argue it's been well planned or delivered).

OffTheShelfElf Thu 05-Mar-20 15:02:28
This delay is really not helping my work productivity...

Mine is terrible today. Just can't settle.

This extract from a WHO briefing keeps nagging at me .

First, COVID-19 does not transmit as efficiently as influenza, from the data we have so far.

With influenza, people who are infected but not yet sick are major drivers of transmission, which does not appear to be the case for COVID-19.

Evidence from China is that only 1% of reported cases do not have symptoms, and most of those cases develop symptoms within 2 days

I was so pleased to think that CV was less effecient that spreading than influenza . But now I think to myself the above quoted 1% may gloss over a lot of unreported cases .

Guessing the 1% come from contacts of infected people that were tested as a precaution who were tested and then went on to show symptoms and to test positive . But the incubation period can vary so they could have been asymptomatic for more than a few days and shedding the virus .

And surely asymptomatic cariers and those with it mildly have gone unreported .Less than1% of reported cases being asymptomatic and shedding for about 2 days may not prove that CV is less effecient at transmitting than flu .

Or am I reading it all wrong .( Assuming people can make sense of what I'm saying )

Don't know if anyone picked up this article yesterday but its content is from the WHO team leader who went to China. I think it's interesting.
www.nytimes.com/2020/03/04/health/coronavirus-china-aylward.html?smid=fb-nytimes&smtyp=cur&fbclid=IwAR2fzOcGj_k9tZ5xAPpGQYjsCmItMYOjhRy4RHBh0LeDTj9ZNc75k91pzkA

But that is still 0.51 of people tested, not of the population at large. We are not randomly testing people. Testing occurs when there is a travel history combined with symptoms or else contact history that warrants it.

Yes that's true. But our testing criteria makes it very hard to actually get tested. The figures we see are the positives from a population of those who 1. bothered to seek testing plus 2. had travelled plus 3. had symptoms. It's a very narrow population.

On top of this We know there is community transmission happening without travel, and we know many people are asymptomatic, so the numbers will definitely be higher than those tested.

I'd be more reassured if the 0.51% had come from random population testing at this stage!

There's the liverpool one as well.
Thanks for the new thread

I thought they said three new cases.

Three.

I have so;me concerns about the way the figures are quoted. Surely we really need to know how many people are suffering from the active infection at one time? The two people in York and the "Superspreader" are certainly recovered now, and presumably most of he other early reported cases. So, if the total is 80 and 10 are recovered entirely that means the figure for people with the active infection is somewhat less than the total figure, and on the map it might mean that the areas of infection are now changed ( no more in York after the first two, so presumably now a clear area.)

I work part time as a supermarket cashier and have just seen a message on the staff intranet saying that due to the unexpected increase in sales over the last week they are looking for staff to work overtime over the next few weeks to get the branch back in shape.

Unexpected?? How on earth was it unexpected?

Sadly it's not a job I can do from home, I always use my own hand gel anyway and keep my till area as clean as possible, while the public and their germy hands strip the store!

@tokyo I hope so in a way because the attitude at the mo is just so strange.

Boris on this morning today said that one theory they were thinking of was to just let it take its course here in one big hit. And that there was no need to close schools.

we're going to be completely overwhelmed,
He's a tit

@SpokeTooSoon those 3 are the Scottish cases. PHE have yet to announce.

Just read there is one in Birmingham. That's who could have gone to Stoke Royal as they said it came from outside of Stoke.

Perdito

There are various scenarios to fit the existing stats. No one can say for sure how to interpret them; there are too many variables, in the same briefing he said there's no 'one size fits all' answer, each epidemic is different, different populations, different cultures, different patterns of spread, different acceptance of measures,

Paraphrasing but that was the gist.

Well this delay is not inspiring any confidence (not that I had any to begin with) in how the government is dealing with this....

Daily mail has reported that HSBC in Canary Wharf has been evacuated after worker tests positive

No, the article says “flu-like symptoms”.

Definitely two in Wigan too. Their council declared it

drumming fingers refreshing gov site

BBC news saying 90 cases, is that right? No further cases other than the three in Scotland announced earlier?

The delay is making me nervous. Not sure why, it's probably not significant whatsoever.

Found you!
Mum's cousin is in hospital with pneumonia. Not sure what type. Another family member was in ITU with pneumonia too. Makes me wonder if they were/are cases. We aren't close at all so don't know them personally.

Right well clearly not up to date info given the posts above, sorry! So late announcing though, I thought I’d just missed it.

F5

F5

F5!

BoJo May be being devils' advocate. 'No point in closing schools' -public outcry 'oh yes there is' -reverse policy as numbers rise-any adverse consequences are then because the public demanded it-not my fault.gov.uk