To be worried about Coronavirus - Part 8

[KenAdams]

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[Post edited by MNHQ at OP's request]

What is the reason for such a high number of critical cases in Italy relative to other countries? I find that quite worrying.

Yes I reckon the hospital could be part of it - and on the worldometers stats the death rate for the over 80s is now 20%

In the US there is a really sad thing where it has reached a life care centre

edition.cnn.com/2020/03/01/health/washington-state-possible-coronavirus-outbreak/index.html

Which could massively affect figures as well.

I think as well Europe/US has a much higher percentage of people over 65 (which sadly it hits more) and probably a higher percentage of people with underlying health conditions

@Janemarpling I have seen something similar going around on Facebook, and made my own post explaining why it's not making fair comparisons. People who don't understand why a brand new virus which spreads fairly easily, puts people in intensive care and kills people is different to known illnesses are idiots.

FWIW a death rate of 0.2% for healthy under 50s is massively higher than the flu.

Whereabouts in Essex is the Essex Coronavirus case? Our HA want to start major roof works on our flats from tomorrow. Got the letter about it YESTERDAY! We are in Essex and the c. Vinci Building Solutions are based in another part of Essex. They want access to the loft space. Id really like to find out about their workplace culture and policy on illness They are going to be coming into peoples homes despite the fact its possible to do this work from outside through the roof

No address or landline no on the letter just a mobile no and e mail address.

A lock down would not be great if we were left without a roof.

Why are the Italy figures terrifying? Is it only because its in europe?

Not sure why terrifying now? Isn't it following same trajectory?

However, we have no basis for knowing what percentage of the population are infected and show no symptoms.

For example, in the case of flu (which I know its not, or even similar to virally) people seem convinced that you have to be unable to move, function at all, be on the internet to claim you have flu, yet well over 70% who have it are symptomless, or have such mild symptoms they're not really noteworthy.

This alters the basis of all the stats we see.

It might be the percentages of deaths or serious illness are completely wrong.

Although, the death rate is the death rate, just that the infection rates could be hugely under reported and noone knows how prevalent it is in the community.

I think all we can do DestinysDaughter is look after ourselves and our family. I have enough prep to not need to leave the house, so I'm not.
My son is out of school as I'm a SAHM anyway.
I keep trying to tell my mum who's 66 and had diabetes and she has just started totally ignoring my texts on the subject.
It's normalcy bias in action and you just can't help those people.

@SirVixofVixHall The WHO report says that asthma does put you at high risk

I do think people who go on holiday now can be considered to have made an informed decision to take the risk that they might find themselves under quarantine in a foreign country trying to access medical care in, at best, their second language and I hope they don't whinge about it if that happens and expect someone else to fix it for them.

Agree with this. No more demanding repatriation if you travel for leisure purposes and there's a breakout. We know the deal.

Does anyone know if Foggia is very affected?

9 hours old headline in local online news for down there, 17 in quarantine.

If you are worried about somebody let me know and I'll go dig about deeper to find out more. Local news tends to better than national for getting a clear picture of a specific area.

I worry as DH and DC have asthma

NEW: Washington state reports 2 new cases of coronavirus in King County; both are in critical condition with underlying health issues t.co/eUoE2b20hL t.co/JNm6HDQZGl

@user34254356 Italy's critical care cases look roughly proportional to China's to me- China's are about 10.9% and Italy's are 12%, so within the same order of magnitude. Italy has an older population, and if some people who caught it were already in hospital, that might explain the slight increase in critical cases. Also (awful as it is to say) more of the really seriously ill people will have unfortunately died in China.

South Korea don't seem to be reporting serious/critical cases anymore (this is just my opinion), and there's not another country with a comparable number of cases, really.

@user34254356 maybe Italy have just been more honest?

I find the numbers terrifying because it is still early days in Italy and the numbers hospitalized are growing exponentially. There is not the slack in the NHS for us to deal with numbers like that.

Crazy thought but if anyone knows how to do an online petition, could we create a petition to send to the Gvt asking for things to slow the virus? E.g. with things other countries are doing, like banning gatherings with more than 1,000 people, only essential air travel, testing at airports etc?

People on UC being coerced into attending Job Centre appointments whether ill or not arent doing it for leisure purposes.

I don't think you can compare the numbers recovered and the numbers died in Italy and conclude what proportion die, as it presumably takes longer to fully recover than to die. And the large majority of people are still ill.

I am concerned by the proportion who are in hospital though - it's about half, but that suggests it can't simply be to put everyone in hospital (as they are doing here) to ensure isolation, so presumably it's there ones who are actually ill enough to need to be in hospital who are being admitted. Unless they started off admitting everyone until they got full up? (Or were many of them in hospital to start with?)

The Chinese built whole new hospitals in about a week, which seems amazing. But doesn't seem we can do that in Europe.

The amount in critical condition is scary. I cant help but feel they add 'underlying health issues' to every case to keep us calm

@NebbiaZanzare Thanks for the info.

Someone from DH's work is due back from there any day.

A few pages back, but the Chinese couple on 31st January in Rome aren’t linked to the larger Italian outbreak so there’s no point trying to map back how it spread from there. The genome analysis actually links the outbreak to the 28th January cases in Bavaria, so it may have been spreading in the community since then or the patient 0 in both places could have been from a similar area in China.

Given the spread and the number of cases which have had time to reach a serious condition, it does seem likely that it’s the same origin as the Bavaria cases and has had a full month of community spread. So that would put Britain three weeks behind Italy in numbers, if we have successfully limited community spread until after half term.

I think it's nasty and unhelpful to be othering those not reacting as being idiots

Theres such a lack of easily understood, factual easily accessible data and public information, that makes the management of it poor, it doesn't make the public idiots or anything else.

Everyone goes on what they have and some take more risks, but they also need to steel themselves for the consequences for themselves and others they affect.

@Greendayz Italy have stopped trying to test everyone - if you have the symptoms but you’re well enough to stay at home they’ve asked people to stay at home and they’re not testing them. So they’re basically now only testing people who are ill enough to visit hospital. That’s why the percentage of serious cases looks so high.

www.eaaci.org/resources-list/resources/4691-coronavirusallergy.html

There's a PDF on this link which is a paper on a clinical investigation of 140 coronavirus patients in Wuhan that suggests that COPD and asthma are not particularly concerning risk factors.

NEW: France reports 30 new cases of coronavirus, raising total to 130 t.co/eUoE2b20hL

@ofwarren

I agree with you completely. I am taking care of myself and my family. We have plenty of stocks in, I WFH anyway. If other people want to put themselves and their loved ones at risk, that’s up to them.