If we look at German cases, they were about where we were on Wednesday, and now there are over 100 cases. I agree that we might follow a similar pattern, so 100 cases by Wednesday/Thursday.
If that doesn't happen, I think that would be a really good sign.
If we're well above that, I think we need to still think about where the cases are coming from- if they're mostly people who went on holiday to Italy, that's a very different scenario to if they are mostly community transmission.
This week is definitely a tipping point, though.
The Netherlands is an interesting one- 10 cases, but already some of unknown origin. That suggests to me community transmission and probably higher levels than the 10 known cases suggest.
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