To be worried about Coronavirus - Part 8

[KenAdams]

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[Post edited by MNHQ at OP's request]

I have seen the actual lines for infection rates and death rates on high trajectory on the worldometers.

I also know gps who mostly work part-time (lifestyle choice)

Definitely poor health, no access to good healthcare and medical services, poor diet, ill health, and poor fitness will all affect your ability to resist infection and succumb to it, as does age and other socio-econmic factors

I think we (or at least experts) can draw some conclusions about what's happening in the UK from the known cases.

A lot of the cases are still people who have recently returned from a country such as Italy, Iran or China. Obviously, this is not good news for them, but it is better news than 12 cases springing up from unknown sources.

We've also caught some cases via contact tracking. This is good, as it shows contact tracking is working to an extent, and we can prevent these people from spreading the virus further.

There's 2 cases in the UK that have caught the Coronavirus via community transmission- one in Surrey and one in Essex. This does suggest there may be undetected cases in the UK, but at the moment it's a relatively small number and potentially limited to the South East. Whilst this isn't ideal at all, if all 12 cases today were community transmission, I think we'd be looking at 100s of undetected cases, which would be very bad news.

I think we'll know a lot more by the end of the week.

Thanks ofWarren. That's 10 miles from me. Seems closer now.

People are being very naive saying ‘yay, we only have 35 cases, aren’t the government doing a fab job’.

Of course that number will go up now. It was 15 a couple of days ago. The numbers tend to double every few days. Do the maths! We’re just a bit behind France and Germany that’s all. We don’t have special UK powers to prevent this spreading now it’s out there in the community.

She called 111 and was essentially told to not be silly. The woman said hse had 0 chance of having coronavirus

I’m really surprised by that advice-that isn’t what a colleague returning from Tenerife was told?

I’d ring again.

I think this coming week will be where we see the scale of infection here in the uk - as symptoms take up to 14 days to appear and it’s week 2 after the half term hols.

Last tue there were 80 cases in Italy, by wed it was 400 and over 800 by Friday. I think it’s over 1000 now.

We are currently at 35, so this time next week things could be very very different.

I think what is underestimated is the effect of the control measures to manage the outbreak. Eg schools are closed, but work places are not. Who looks after the children? This is something dh is dealing with in HK - employee and partner work full time, two children aged 2 and 6, no school and not old enough to stay home alone.
He has some of his staff coming in for 2 days and working from home for 3, but not possible for all jobs.

Don't travel! It's most likely going to cause you so much hassle. My family is currently self isolated. We got back from N. Italy 9 days ago. Flew in and out of Austria and was staying just over the border. DC had a 37.7 temp for a few mins at school (was in a hot room and was end of day). Took her home and no temp and none sense. All of us completely fine. I'll eat my hat if DC has the virus. There was one case in the entire region we were in and that's still the case (hasn't spread there) !. We were 4 hours from hotspots. Still rules are rules and we are all isolated waiting to hear what to do next. This will take time.....

That's not what I'm saying at all. Clearly we're going to get more cases in the UK. I agree that we will follow the trajectory of Germany and France.

I don't think our government are doing a fab job, and I have criticised them on previous threads. I think delaying COBRA until Monday, in particular was a stupid decision. I've also criticised the plan re schools.

The reason I'm posting the way I am is because initially when you see a jump in 12 cases the reaction is a bit "Oh Fuck!" or mine was, anyway! I was only expecting maybe 1 new case yesterday and maybe 3/4 today. However, when you look at the details of the cases from today, it is a bit more reassuring- not because our government is doing super well, but because 11 out of 12 cases are from known sources. To me, that doesn't suggest it's out of control in the UK, yet.

Whereas in the US, I think there's clear evidence that there are a fair number of undetected cases in the population, but people aren't getting tested because of the cost and the fears of big bills following quarantine.

It's just my thoughts and people are free to disagree, but if people think the figures are more concerning, then it would be nice to have an explanation of why they think that.

fedup21 she was only calling because we'd bugged her too. She won't call again now as she's taking it as proof that we were all being hysterical in the first place and the NHS have said all is fine.

She's currently necking lemsips and packing to go down to pregnant dn in Oxford for a couple of days sightseeing/shopping.

Coronavirus updates:

• Iran: 385 new cases, 11 new deaths
• South Korea; 210 new cases, 4 new deaths
• Germany: 38 new cases
• Japan: 1 new death

t.co/eUoE2b20hL

So there's 5 weeks until Easter. They could theoretically close until then and go through summer hols instead with a week (Ideally two) off somewhere?

Thesispieces

Your risks to take.

I think many have vulnerable family/contacts to bear in mind in their decision-making.

Youbhave to weigh up yoir own risks against that I guess. Its all you can do.

Read the figures and the fast evolving situation (govt now not ruling out closing schools, etc)

@worldgonemad2020 I agree re: travel. The risks of getting caught up in a quarantine situation, or having issues getting back to the UK are a problem. If having to self-isolate on return would be financially difficult, I definitely wouldn't travel.

Thank you for all your updates @ofwarren on this threads, it is helping me trying to keep up to date.

I’m attempting to teach my short attention spanned 4 year old the happy birthday hand wash.

They’ll be fine. FORTY SODDING MINUTES.

@MabelMoo23 I am one crossing everything for Crufts, we're going for the first time on Saturday and the DC are super excited. If it's on, we will go - but I'm preparing myself for it not being...

I think we'll probably hear more after the COBRA meeting tomorrow.

My other dsis left at 5 30am this morning to Tignes for a skiing trip. Not sure whether there is a risk to her there but thinking of insisting they don't visit for at least two weeks!

@DonkeyKong2019 the logistics of that would be near impossible.
Many school staff plan things in the summer like holidays, weddings, visiting people etc.
I don't think people would take just say, yeah that's fine, we'll change the school holidays. It just wouldn't work.

@Wynona not helpful to patronise other peoples quite valid feelings. Go on your walk and stay off thread if not interested!

#CzechRepublic reports 1st case of #Coronavirus.

Czech Rep was the first country to announce Theyre ready to treat Coronavirus patients at the very beginning of the epidemic. Even willing to accept foreign patients. Will be interesting to see how they deal with it.

@DonkeyKong2019

There's a few issues with that proposed plan re: schools IMO.

1. In May, it's exam season. Yes, we could send work home for exam classes (although if I'm planning and marking and working over the summer, I'd expect to be paid more). Student's exam performance would definitely take a big hit.

2. It could be difficult to staff schools over the summer- many teachers spend the whole summer holidays travelling, many more will have a pre-booked holiday of some kind. A lot of teachers plan their weddings etc for the summer holidays. For a lot of teachers, losing the summer holiday would be the final straw for them and we're already in a recruitment and retention crisis.

3. A lot of families obviously book summer holidays, so it's very likely attendance would be a lot lower than usual.

None of these are reasons not to close schools if needed, but I don't think schools need to be closed yet. A more sensible approach would be:
-Anyone who has traveled to Northern Italy, South Korea, Iran and China to stay off regardless of showing symptoms.
-Anyone (regardless of travel) with a cough and or temp should stay off.
-Any individual schools with further concerns should be closed for deep cleans as and when required.
-Any schools with a diagnosed case to close for 2 weeks, and review the situation before re-opening.
-Any pupils who's parents wish to keep them home should be allowed to stay home, without fines or losing their school place.

If you want schools to close now, I think you have to accept they won't open over the summer holidays, especially if you want teachers sending work home.

If we reach an Italy level situation, then I think regional school closures should be considered.

698 tested and 0 cases in Scotland so far

@DonkeyKong2019 I'd also like to add that I've not said that in an abrupt tone to you (it's hard to gauge tone through messages)

I think it's far better to shut schools in the early stages if it prevents further death and spread, and do summer school instead.

People might have holidays booked, yes, but coronavirus, exponential increase in cases and deaths over time make this a sensible solution