To be worried about Coronavirus - Part 8

[KenAdams]

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[Post edited by MNHQ at OP's request]

I think once multiple countries start hitting Italy numbers ending flights etc becomes pretty futile

I think if you travel be prepared to not be let back in for weeks on end and remain in a foreign country.

Travel at your own risk.

I would be interested to know which areas of Italy the confirmed UK cases came from. Is it the areas where the school kids have all gone to Ski holidays over half term, or is it a business man with a conference in Milan for example.

On the assumption that the numbers seem to be at the very least doubling every 48 hours, using the numbers posted below that details day 1-10 of the Italy spread. Confirmed cases I would assume would at the very least play out being more than below

Day 11 2256
Day 12 4512
Day 13 9024
Day 14 18,048

Given the 14 day incubation period without symptoms, for us to have 35 cases, we may already have 18000 people in contact with the virus as were 14 days behind.
Am I getting that right?

@ofwarren

"Do you know me and my family situation namechanger no? Didn't think so
Get to fuck"

All the more reason that you need to take a step back - how is being that anxious about 35 people having Coronavirus at all a healthy response? How is that anxiety rubbing off on your family, that you already very concerned about? The irony is that if you are stressed to the extent of shaking then your body is being overrun with cortisol which is directly weakening your immune system and making you more susceptible to the disease you are desperate to avoid.

Yes minimising is not good, but there is a balance to be had. 35 IS good when you look at the rate of spread in Italy, and there is no evidence that we will follow the same trajectory as Italy.

Been following these threads although not commented yet.

Re Crufts, I work in the event industry and whether or not Crufts is cancelled has crossed my mind - that said, it opens on Thursday, but it’s a big event and work will have or at least be imminently starting on build up. Organisers won’t let it build and then not go ahead. For huge stands to be constructed and then taken down straight away? If it’s going to be cancelled, then it needs doing before construction

In comparison a large property show in Cannes has just been rescheduled until June, although that’s almost certainly a ban from France on large gatherings over 5,000 than any other reason!!

But seeing as government is now urging over 60’s to avoid crowds (as seen in Daily Mail - apologies!) you have to wonder at Crufts still going ahead!

thisispieces when you say the potential to hugely impact families it sounds like you mean in terms of restricting family holidays, and not severe illness and death?

Is that what you meant?

South Korea number updates: 3,736 cases and, sadly, 4 more deaths.

I think, unlike other countries, they aren't reporting the number of serious/critical cases, which is why this appears so low on sites such as Worldometers.

namechanger

Do you have reason, or evidence why our trajectory in the uk would differ from existing trajectories?

Its been established that cv19 has a faster spread rate than, say flu.

New update on the Guardian - Local elections in May could be postponed pending legal advice given to the Cabinet.

I think this is a very steep learning curve all round about how our world is now much smaller due to the ability to travel regularly and relatively cheaply and how something that starts thousands of miles away can end up on our doorstep causing major changes to the usual running of things; for the record I do not think that travel should be stopped except in a crisis when it will have proven benefits as has happened in some areas already. This scenario would not have occurred to me and what may be the political implication of this? It may not happen of course but it really seems to be snow balling.......

Rhode Island reports first presumptive case of coronavirus; patient recently returned from Italy t.co/eUoE2b20hL

I’m sure lots of retirees/part time HCPs would step up but there’s no sense dragging people in if they are potentially going to be unwell or their skills have lapsed too much.

I wonder if we should be using the internet for online consultations as well as online teaching. If they felt able to, and wanted to, a few recently retired doctors volunteering to do online consultations (appropriately legally protected) might be invaluable in the peak of an epidemic, for some of the non-Covid things. If they could do it from home they wouldn't even need to put themselves at greater risk. If it was clear from the consultation that in person examinations/interventions were going to be essential, they could then direct people accordingly.

One day the online questionnaires for NHS 111 will be a lot more sophisticated, and backed by home diagnostic kits and artificial intelligence. They'll be able funnel patients much more accurately to appropriate services, including online doctors as one of the options. It's a pity we're not quite there yet, but we do still have the internet and should be using it as much as possible.

I do wonder if Netflix might not be as available as we're all hoping to keep us entertained though! There isn't unlimited bandwidth and I think in HK they have found it got overloaded.

When I say established obviously that is based on flawed data, which is all we currently have!

We don't know how many have it, or are ill with it which could massively alter the figures.

The government is considering delaying local elections- to me, this seems inconsistent with their current positions on other large gatherings and travel : www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/01/local-elections-could-be-delayed-by-coronavirus-outbreak

Either that's a sign they are starting to take this outbreak more seriously, OR a sign they want to avoid the local elections for some other reason. Neither is good imo.

3 new cases of #Coronavirus in #Netherlands. 10 now in total

Beautiful day. Just been on a fantastic walk. I don't understand the hysteria. What am I missing? I am just going to carry on with normal life. Buy normal amount of food. Go to work as normal. Enjoy meeting friends and family as normal. Goodness what a lot of fuss.

How does our health care compare to the countries where there have been more cases and deaths? Are people more likely to die of infection anyway due to poor health care do you think? It might be a factor at play.

I saw a graph a few days ago showing how quickly the numbers going up once a country hits 100 cases. The line for Italy and China were almost exactly the same which was scary. Has anyone Else seen this? I can’t find the link now

Agreed @SansaSnark

#Tetbury primary school confirms staff member has tested positive for Coronavirus #Gloucestershire t.co/O6aNDJRq07

The Olympics in the summer is a pretty large gathering of people from all over!

My dsis came back from Tenerife yesterday after a 2 week holiday. Her and DH have pretty bad flu symptoms which just before the flight home. It's very unusual for either of them to be ill.

She called 111 and was essentially told to not be silly. The woman said hse had 0 chance of having coronavirus and laughed when my dsis asked if she should self-isolate and offered to pay for a test.

She has been told to carry on as normal.

Olympics can be held behind closed doors, most watch on TV. But who knows?

Cheltenham coming up too...

@Wynona

I think most people are carrying on as normal - we are but it does feel a little surreal.

There is a real likelihood of escalation, and I think that as these threads show a good balance of views and data without much hysteria they are a good place to share concerns with others without raising anxieties in real life. It is seeping in though to normal activities - had a lengthy but not overly hysterical conversation with the ladies on the till at our local Wilkos on Friday for example......

And maybe a little fuss now will help mitigate the overall situation - one can but hope.