To be worried about Coronavirus - Part 8

[KenAdams]

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Oh no. The man diagnosed in Shenzhen was working in Bristol... I live just outside Bristol. It’s where I’m from and my parents live, and my partner works, and I’m always in and out of. I’ve literally got the bus back from Bristol today. Fucks sake.

@Namechanger20183110 i do agree that 35 [as much as it is 35 too many] is not horrendous and the government need to get given some credit for the numbers being much lower than some other countries.

Interesting to see the Italian numbers.

Guardian has mentioned HK chap worked in Bristol and 93 close contacts have been identified. That's helpful, and I hope that few of those 93 are positive, because how many people might each of those 93 been in contact with...... not even going to speculate on those potential numbers.

Psychologically this is an interesting exercise..... should I be worried because two weeks ago I shook hands with two Asian chaps who came to view my retail premises with a view to taking on the lease? My rational brain says of course not, but had they spent Christmas and new year in a home country? Visited relatives? Had relatives visit them? Maybe they are utterly indigenous to the UK for four generations. I would normally pay no attention to this exchange and it is no reflection on them personally. Just the situation. At present I am well and healthy so am using this for illustrative purposes only.

Juventus in lockdown as THREE players test positive for coronavirus

#COVID19 #Coronavirus #Juve t.co/Sci5sSmZyW

I think increased surveillance could be a factor- also increasing awareness in people who have e.g. returned from Italy.

I think this week we will start to pick up cases from people who caught it in Italy, which will cause bigger jumps in the number of cases, but doesn't (necessarily) mean it's spreading in the UK yet. If these people have followed advice and isolated when necessary, transmission rates with in the UK could still be quite low.

I would hope that on Monday, following COBRA, the self isolation advice will be updated- particularly if these people weren't staying in affected towns but e.g. all traveled through a particular airport.

I think that the fact that these mostly aren't community transmission cases is a better sign than if they were. The fact that they are also successfully catching cases through contact tracing should be helping to limit the spread.

@ofwarren

The three players in question are from another team, in Serie C and Juve quarantined its under 23 team because they faced them.

Juventus opponents have tested positive so Juventus in lockdown as a precaution presumably. Still shit though.

And another school in my area, this one even closer to my home, is being closed for a deep clean as the confirmed case went on a training course there with other staff from the borough. They clearly have the potential to be another super spreader.
For anyone in Reading, it's Aldryington Primary

3 new cases of #Coronavirus in #Lebanon

If love it if they closed my school for a deep clean. The place is filthy.

@babychange12 that's just the headline I copied over from the sports news. I know nothing of football 😁

So many people on other threads are minimising the virus. Accusing posters of being unduly anxious or scaremongering. Why is it always so difficult for some people to understand that others have great concern due to chronic health conditions?!

@BiBiBirdie a superspreader is someone who sheds lots of virus, so is more infectious than normal, not someone who goes to lots of places. So far the person you are talking about has infected a grand total of zero, so declaring them a superspreader is scaremongering.

what people dont seem to grasp is that we have no vaccine to this virus and no immunity, it would seem. So Ok there are ONLY 35 cases

35 cases at the moment

And it will spread. And until you have had it and recovered from it, you will have no immunity to it, and some are saying that recovery is no guarantee of immunity (we have yet to see about this fact)

they are not talking about travel bans and lockdowns to try to stop people catching it. We will, over the next 2 -3 years, most likely catch it. What they are doing is trying to reduce the numbers of people who catch it all at once, as our international health services cannot cope with that, not on top of the usual flu stuff going round and, in the UK, an NHS thats on its knees dealing with everyday health needs of the country.

Until it has either infected most people and has nowhere else to go, or we have developed a vaccine to stop people getting infected, it will continue to spread. That is the nature of viruses and a population with no immunity.

It appears to be quite virulent - it passes easily from person to person.

I dont believe any govnt believe they can actually contain it, all they can really do is hope to hell that they develop a vaccine (they still dont have one for SARS) or that the rate of infection is manageable

I think that being relaxed about numbers only being 35 are missing the point. Its the exponential rate of spread and death that are of concern! Not how many just now.

Buy vodka, or any alcohol for sanitising in the absence of anything else, yes.

Also, to reiterate, yes, there is similar genomic packing to hiv and ebola. The drugs to treat both are being trialled, and showing some successes at treating, early stages and to early to scientifically prove, but being used to some success because of genetic similarities.

The binding action is one, like hiv, that remains in the body, the same as the varicella zoster virus (chicken pox).

So they think the Essex case was contracted in the UK, but they don't know from who.

It could be from a trolley handle in Tescos for all the government know.
The time to take drastic measures was 2/3 weeks ago. It's here, it's spreading & there's nothing we can do about it now unfortunately.

@Bercows yes there are a remarkable amount of self aggrandising people on MN isn't there who will bitch you to kingdom come and then ignore when you give factual info

Case in point " it's no worse than flu"
I just want to pat them on the head and invite them to actually look into their rubbish.

Hopefully we have few cases but as we know people can be infected and spread with no symptoms it's quite a task for PHE to know what's happening.

I think it's really hard to strike a balance- clearly the "no worse than flu" stuff is bollocks, but equally it's not yet crisis stations in the UK either.

I can totally understand that people with health conditions are more concerned, and it's also worth bearing in mind that not ever poster lives in the UK.

Birdie please be careful.

Everyone has the potential to be a super spreader. One person contact is not evidence of this.

Maybe consider the brighton situation, where two gp practices shut down, early on, have there been more cases? I haven't heard so.

I was expecting more than 12 tbh, but it will be a whole different kettle of fish this time next week/month.

Perhaps the confusion around AIDS/Ebola is around this, “Research by team from Nankai University shows new virus has mutated gene similar to those found in HIV and Ebola” <a class="break-all" href="https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3052495/coronavirus-far-more-likely-sars-bond-human-cells-scientists-say#click=t.co/I7ZAQk3Q8o" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3052495/coronavirus-far-more-likely-sars-bond-human-cells-scientists-say#click=t.co/I7ZAQk3Q8o

Also if anyone wants to see how easily and quickly a virus spreads from a lace such as Haslemere for example, watch this www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p059y0p1 a social experiment involving over 10k participants that simulates a pandemic originating in, ironically Haslemere.

DF informed me just now that at his church the bishop has notified the clergy that when “ passing the peace” and entry/ exit to church they are not to shake hands for the forceable future.

Not sure if this is a whole of C of E thing or just his diocese .

Regarding the new infection in Shenzhen, another way of looking at it is to say that the Uk is now exporting infection cases to China.

TBF, I think part of the reason there's no vaccine for SARS is that there were only ever 2 outbreaks, and although it was a serious illness