To be worried about Coronavirus - Part 8

[KenAdams]

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[Post edited by MNHQ at OP's request]

The virus does not have 'parts of hiv and ebola coding'. It's very frustrating to see psuedo-science being repeated time and again. I'd also like to know where people are getting 60% vodka from!

Yes, it does look likely to spread Puppy though it looks as though the government are still trying for containment. It literally is just getting going here.

I suspect the rise in cases might be due to them expanding the testing to a number of sentinel gp practices? That is pure speculation on my behalf though.

Looking at the way and speed that it’s spread in other countries, I think there’s a very high chance we’ll be seeing numbers into the hundreds next week.

@GenevaMaybe
Italy - over 1100 in about a week
France - over 100 in the last few days

It's here.

Also, our figures are very unscientific.

We only know how many that have come forward have it or don't.

We know nothing of those suffering something and do not differentiate at all.

The only action has been based on known contact.

Thank god that testing will be done upon arrival from infected zones!

I thinknits completely reasonable that those taking their own risks to travel abroad, have to deal with the consequences on their own if they are trapped there in isolation, and then have to endure further isolation here.

Your risk to take if thats what you choose. If its not an emergency then why travel. Its spread by travel doh!

A person diagnosed in Shentzen has recently worked in the uk. My guess is that’s where person to person contacted infection started.

@TheRealHousewife why do you think that?

In the uk I meant to add.

For me personally, what is making me nervous is that in a very short space of time we have gone from it being predominantly identified in a few countries and those at risk have been there or have had contact with someone who has been there. Now cases are being caught where the person hasn't fulfilled those criteria to their knowledge. Which suggests that there may be alot of people circulating with the virus, untested because "it's just a cold / normal winter virus"......

I really feel for those trying to predict and contain this thing - they must be knackered as it seems to be a quite moveable feast.....

@Puppy78

Well, it could. It hasn't yet, and hopefully will remain contained, but if it spreads unchecked it could potentially be very serious. I heard estimated somewhere that a worst case scenario was 60% of the population getting infected. If the death rate is 1% then that would be 0.6% of the population. A small percentage, sure, but still getting on for 400,000 people. That is a significant number, enough that measures to prevent it happening are important.

Think what? If a person has been diagnosed they could have been incubating the infection for over 2 weeks. In that 2 weeks he’s worked in the uk.

Am I the only one that thinks 35 is bloody good given the potential number of people the 23 were in contact with??
Shaking over it, really? If it had a few more 00s at the end of it at this stage then fine, but the fact is that this has been around for a while now and we still only have 35 cases out of the 11000 that have been tested. No wonder the government aren't panicking.

It’s on the Guardian live feed.

Italy’s confirmed-case progression in the last 10 days:

20 Feb: 3
21 Feb: 20
22 Feb: 79
23 Feb: 152
24 Feb: 229
25 Feb: 322
26 Feb: 400
27 Feb: 650
28 Feb: 888
29 Feb: 1128

You can find information about total cases here:
www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

For info:
Italy- 1128 cases, 105 serious.
Germany- 117 cases (a jump of 38 from yesterday)
France- 104 cases
Spain- 73 cases (a jump of 15 from yesterday)
We're the next highest European country.

I do think the cases of person to person transmission in the UK are concerning, and I think we will follow the same pattern as Germany and France, with bigger jumps in cases from now on. It seems like we are screening a lot of people, which IMO is a good thing.

I think a good step from the government would be to tell people with cough/temperature to stay home and call 111 where possible. Ideally, we need to stop these people going to minor injuries/doctors surgeries and causing them to be closed.

I'd like to see more guidance being given to schools (especially about European trips).

When they say the Essex patient had 'no relevant travel' I wonder if that means no commuting into / across London. Thousands of people commute in daily from Essex and the public transport is used by thousands more who do have relevant travel.

They’ve done an admirable job to try and contain it but it’s practically impossible when people might not know they have it.

@Bercows Thank you! We've got food in, medicines etc. Sadly hand gels had sold out when I went, but I managed to get sanitiser hand wipes. Unfortunately we are meant to be flying to Aus over Easter and I'm not sure whether it is worth us going.

@OhYouBadBadKitten Thanks for your reply.

If it does start to spread to Italy levels, any idea when we might know? I'm assuming in the next 10 to 14 days?

Also Shenzhen man was working in Bristol: www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/mar/01/coronavirus-latest-updates-coronavirus-live-updates-latest-news-china-wuhan-stock-markets-update-china-iran-us-australia-south-korea-japan

(live feed so you may need to scroll down a bit)

2 of his colleagues in the UK had cough/fever and his close contacts are being traced.

Those figures are scary.

12 more coronavirus cases confirmed today - eight are patients who have recently travelled from Italy or Iran. At least one patient is from Greater Manchester. Locally, health chiefs have confirmed a case in Bury.
t.co/wEPkWZNvhz

So greater Manchester case is in Bury. I will try and find info on the others

User according to John Campbell, asthma can be controlled with medication normally, and so isn’t something that is increasing the risk of death.

It's like trying to corral the wind.

I think by no relevant travel, they mean no travel from a country such as Italy, Iran or China, rather than no relevant travel in the UK. So they think the Essex case was contracted in the UK, but they don't know from who.

It looks like I was wrong about the expansion of cases being due to increased surveillance.