To be worried about the Coronavirus Part 6

[Jenasaurus]

Old thread here

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/3833553-to-be-worried-about-coronavirus-part-5

I noticed that this time they didn't put the disclaimer saying the delay doesn't mean there are new cases.

@Jenasaurus

It does seem odd why we hear so much about it and why we do not hear that "ordinary" winter 'flu kills 17000 in UK every year even with vaccine!

Given that new cases are reported as they come in, independently of the report, I'm not sure we need to read masses into the 2pm report being late. It might be more to do with collecting data from various labs re how many they have processed etc.

I'd be surprised if there weren't more U.K. cases today either way.

Hopefully Avocado. It puts me on edge every time it's late, even though I know they update new cases independently 🙈

I hate it being late

Where are these reports posted?

Now that testing has ramped up it's probably a nightmare trying to get various labs to submit figures on time. I think the 2pm report has always been more about highlighting lots of negative tests than communicating positive ones.

Thanks offwarren

Yes, it's making me nervous that Italy and the UK may have decided to synchronise their announcements.

It does seem odd why we hear so much about it and why we do not hear that "ordinary" winter 'flu kills 17000 in UK every year even with vaccine!

It's not odd.

For every person that gets flu they pass it on to roughly 0.4 people on average

Of those only 0.01% die

For every person that gets Coronavirus it is estimated that they will pass it on to 2-3 people on average

Of those it is estimated that 2% will die.

I really don't see what people don't get about this?

It's 2-3 x more infectious, there is no vaccine and it is 20 x more fatal

Oh yeah, I forgot about Italy 😱

Here's the latest from metro, says it's been upgraded.

metro.co.uk/2020/02/28/coronavirus-global-threat-upgraded-high-12322296/?ico=pushly-notifcation-small&utm_source=pushly

I see them on the department of health Twitter page @DonkeyKong2019

Well if schools close, I’m buggered! I work in a university and only get paid for what I work, so will have no income. OH job is linked to airlines, it’s been hard this year already and the company have done their best to keep staff over the winter, people could possibly lose their jobs, he was half expecting to be let go over Christmas, but it’s a family business and they feel responsible for their staff. If he’s one of those to go because air travel is halted, what do we do then? I’m pretty sure the business wouldn’t be able to keep going either.

This is exactly why the government is treading carefully and no doubt weighing up the pros and cons, of it all, the impact on businesses is huge, if it is manageable and the majority of people present as a bad case of flu, maybe that’s what they go with.

I’m sure there are more informed and knowledgeable people than us looking at these decisions. I’m just glad it’s not me making them.

British man from diamond Princess has died.

@Thinkingabout1t Our surgery is VC They have stopped patients medication in the past when they dont come in for routine appointments and med reviews.

Another one, Red?

And there is no immunity out there in the community for this novel coronavirus. Lots of people would be ill at once.

I know flu changes yearly but there is some protection having had a similar type before apparently which makes it less likely you would get a severe case.

Guardian reporting that the latest case is a Surrey GP. Currently contact tracing all his appointments. His wife happens to be a GP too but they haven't said which surgery.

Things that can be done:
Cancel all religious meetings.
Close schools to Y7-10 and Y12. ( This makes it safer for Y11s doing GCSEs.) Kids to stay at home, checked up on by PCSOs security and police if they are seen out and about during their normal duties.
Cancel sports fixtures or play in empty stadia.
Cancel clubs like swimming lessons, scouts.
Discourage social gatherings
Close leisure centres and libraries.
Any sahp are allowed to keep younger children at home.(reduce the number of contacts) schools provide work online. ( Many use aps anyway for maths language etc)
Encourage people not to travel for leisure.
Cancel big trade fairs and gatherings.

Some of those things come at no cost to the economy.

Yes I think it will be dreadful news.

Anyone else got a sinking feeling?

Close schools to Y7-10 and Y12. ( This makes it safer for Y11s doing GCSEs.)

Hmm. Who looks after my (little) DCs while I'm teaching GCSE and DH continues at work? I think we need to consider online streaming of lessons.

Oh I totally knew I would get flamed for it and don't take anything I say as fact or anything but it was just something I was thinking about.

So this virus had its first case reported on new years eve and we have since discovered the incubation period is between 14 and 28 days.. So befor this was even reported this virus was on the loose with nobody knowing a thing about it.. It then takes until January 23rd for hubei to be places under quarentine so even if we go with the incubation period of 14 days that means this virus has had 37 days to spread without anyone to attempt to stop it... So as of today this virus has been around since mid December so about 74 days half of that time if was left to spread at its own will through hubei which as a province has the same population as England... These cities in the province are now ghost towns either many of them would seem similar to Oxford Street on a busy day so people will be touching and spreading all their germs in this time... Now obviously about a month ago hubeie was put into lock down so has massively helped slowing the virus but since mid December it has managed to infect 0.14%of hubei province which consider the virus pretty much had free reign for 40 days is a seriously tiny number..

Again please don't take anything I say as I fact or to quote a source as it was literally just me thinking about this in the way home from work. I am also not saying we shouldnt be prepared but as hubeie is the same size as England and they managed to contain it to under 100k cases I think things look much more positive than they may seem.