US - Iran Peace agreement Part 3

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https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/conflict-in-the-middle-east/5535141-us-iran-peace-agreement-part-2https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/conflict-in-the-middle-east/5535141-us-iran-peace-agreement-part-2

This temporary pause/reduction in the violence appears to only be because the US is running out of interceptors and has had to request a temporary cessation!

I can't see it lasting, unfortunately. I expect the US will start up again once they have resupplied again. The only good thing is that their SPR is apparently getting worryingly low and likely to be critical by October. Of course, other countries are much worse off.

This was in the Telegraph:

“An Iranian cargo ship in the Caspian Sea does not, at first, seem like an obvious target for Ukrainian drones.
But more than 500 miles away from Kyiv – and just days before meeting Donald Trump at the White House – Volodymyr Zelensky wanted to make an important point.
The ship, which has not been named, was allegedly carrying military cargo between Russia and Iran.
Iran has long been supplying Shahed drones to Russia for its war against Ukraine. Now Russia is fitting them with powerful jet engines, and is believed to be sending them back to Iran for its war against the US.
Ukraine blew the ship out of the water, killing one crew member. Mr Zelensky hopes that proving Russia is aiding Iran will persuade Mr Trump to turn against Vladimir Putin.”

Excerpt From
“Ukraine’s strike on Iranian tanker is a message for Trump”
Joe Barnes
The Telegraph
https://apple.news/AG-K5woh5TMqnSnr54UOsGA
This material may be protected by copyright.

Ukraine targeting an Iranian ship on the Caspian makes total sense. Russia and Iran ferry drone and missile parts between them.

If Trump had any sense he would have known about the Caspian route at the start. And acted accordingly. It has been discussed on these boards enough.

Trump can't out ammo Iran with the Caspian route open. And he could not close it without attacking Russia. And he would not do that because WW3, and more importantly for Trump. Putin is his pall.

So now a potential new proxy is involved, to deal with the Caspian. And this is just days after Trump says he Trusts Putin and Xi not to arm Iran. Or more likely to me, Ukraine is maybe saying , " Hey Trump, you Trust Putin ? Come see what is on his ships. Give us some help, or we will show the world what your pal Putin has on those ships".

This was at the end of an opinion piece in the Guardian:

“There is no amelioration of the cumulative impacts of this vandalism, no subsidy or cap that can soak up a colossal shock at the heart of global energy transit channels and oil production. We are all held hostage by a regime in the US that has pressed its military and economic prowess in service of ego and ignorance; tethered to an administration that runs the country as it runs in the world, in pursuit of point-scoring in a game where no play is too small or too big. Whether it is adding warning signs outside the Smithsonian to alert that exhibits are “inaccurate”, initiating crude tariff policies, or dragging a whole region into war because he thought it would be easy and look cool, Trump is wildly casual, cavalier, one moment bored and the other vexed. As if the whole world were a plaything to be toyed with and discarded, then picked up again and shaken and prodded.
And it all shows no signs of abating. Yoked to US hegemony, we all count the pennies, the bodies, the ever-escalating tithes of the election of a single man and the willingness of careerists and cowards who enable and support “him. The more it carries on, the more these costs will be recounted in a sort of background noise to our existence and what was previously unthinkable will become the new normal, again and again. The Iran war is the most hazardous manifestation of this. Phantom breakthroughs, threats of final decisive escalations, all have given way to a chilling reality. An exorbitant war that is with each day rearranging geopolitics, domestic budgets and household ones, is once again, a new normal. Trump is stuck. Unable to swallow the unpalatable price of peace. And everyone else pays the cost.”

Excerpt From
“Opinion | He’s commander-in-chief of chaos. Now we’re all victims of Trump’s wars”
Nesrine Malik
The Guardian
https://apple.news/AiiNQ0jM_Q2-OndX1u7UvBg
This material may be protected by copyright.

So in a nutshell, we're looking at proxy wars.

It is anyway I suppose. Here the US is a proxy for Israel ?

Saudi Arabia is a proxy for the US against the Houthi ?

And now we have Ukraine either being a proxy for the US, or maybe they want it to look that way ?It's a clever move from Ukraine I think, because they have a legit reason to strike if arms are being transported to Russia from Iran.

Trump would have been told all this of course, but he went ahead anyway. He did back away from using the Kurds. Twice, First term in Syria, and this time Iran.

The outcomes from this war just keep giving. From the Telegraph:

“Somali pirates have been using a hijacked cargo ship as a launch pad to capture other vessels in a resurgence of attacks off the Horn of Africa.
Two Iranian fishing boats were captured on July 16 by pirates operating from a 330ft cement carrier they had seized earlier this year.
At one point last week, six captured vessels were being held off the Puntland coast as the pirates demanded hefty ransoms. Two of the vessels were released on Saturday.
The increase in attacks has been has attributed in part to the fallout of the Iran conflict, which has left naval patrols overstretched as they deploy vessels to the Red Sea and Middle East.”

Excerpt From
“Somali pirates are back, fuelled by Iran war”
Mohamed Gabobe, Ben Farmer
The Telegraph
https://apple.news/AaAVKUlkkSlKl3IaEP5zwAg
This material may be protected by copyright.

It is the fallout that keeps on giving, maximum example of the law of unintended consequences (or in Trump’s case doing stupid things against expert advice because of his intuition or “when I feel it in my bones”).

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-27/satellites-show-tank-fire-at-saudi-oil-plant-jazan-after-attack

"A tank at Saudi Aramco’s Jazan oil refinery appeared to be on fire in satellite images taken after Yemen’s Houthis claimed to attack the plant over the weekend.

Images from the European Union’s Sentinel 2 orbiter showed a fire at one tank in the sprawling 400,000 barrel-a-day complex. They also showed a flare tower to the east of the site billowing smoke. Flaring towers help processing plants like oil refineries burn off excess gas and act as crucial safety valves for industrial sites.

It wasn’t clear if the incidents affected operations at the site, but the image suggests that the impact is limited to storage tanks......

......Saudi energy ministry officials didn’t respond to requests for comment."

Another 400,000 barrels of Oil capacity temporarily (perhaps permanently) offline.

The costs of this folly are going to cost us all dearly.

I was pleased that the Telegraph article included this bit of context to the Somali pirates.

Local fishermen have also complained that their legal livelihoods have been blighted by unrestrained fishing by vessels from Iran, Yemen, Pakistan, India, Thailand and China.

After years of complaints about illegal foreign fishing and foreign companies dumping hazardous waste off Somalia's coast during the years of state collapse, the emergence of local fishermen and militias boarding vessels and demanding fines was seen as defending Somalia's waters.
It's now a lucrative, organized criminal enterprise and not good that they've resurfaced.

Sure but you could also argue that it makes sense for Russia to ask the Iranians to attack Europe, who are supplying the Ukrainians with their weapons.

All of it is bad and just escalates these wars. Perhaps they will end up merging into one, huge conflict if this continues.

Why and how would Iran attack Europe ? It would give then no advantage. Just the opposite. It would also potentially be an attack on NATO, and Iran is not all below the Tropic of Cancer.

Quote " Two Iranian fishing boats were captured on July 16 by pirates...."

That says to me that the US blockade of Iranian ports is oil only. A fishing boat could carry a fair load of anti-ship missiles to Yemen.

It could also indicate what has talked about before here, that the USN might be overstretched in the area.

Having a quick look at the recent transcripts, and there was a press gaggle on Airforce 1, July 27th 2026. He was asked about the Iran war, and he said :

DONALD TRUMP 00:00:15-00:00:37 (22 SEC)
No. I think he's done a great job. We've pretty much destroyed their military. They want to meet and we're meeting. We'll see what happens. There's a chance we could make a deal. Without what we did, they wouldn't even be talking to us. They requested a meeting through their surrogates and directly and we're meeting, and, you know, good things can happen, I guess.

Oil dropped very big today. Uh, stock markets, as of about an hour ago, was like through the roof. But no, they requested a meeting. They would not have requested the meeting if we were doing poorly. The only reason they want to meet is because we've been hitting them very hard. Yeah?

(How much patience do you have left with Iran, sir? - I think this is question)

I have plenty of time, plenty of time. Their whole shoreline is wiped out. The strait is in very good shape now, and we're talking right now. You know, they wanted to talk. Their people said, please don't drop, don't shoot, last night, the night before, two nights, don't do it. You know, we're having good talks.

So we'll see what happens. I think there's a good chance that something could happen. And if it does, good. If it doesn't, we go back to doing what we were doing two days ago.

So his logic is, oil price dropped big, stocks are through the roof, and that is why Iran want talks ? On top of the bombing that is.

But yeah. He says see what happens, and if nothing happens keep on bombing. It appears he is all out of ideas.

Source :

Press Gaggle: Donald Trump Speaks to Reporters On Board Air Force One - July 27, 2026 — Trump Archive (trump-archive.com)

Trump says there are “very friendly negotiations” taking place with Iran amid a pause in military action, adding that he believes they have a good chance to end the war.

However, Trump has also warned that the US would resume “strong military action” if the talks fail.

Tehran has denied that any direct negotiations with Washington are taking place, and says it is only receiving messages from the US via mediators.

Meanwhile, Iran has threatened to retaliate against Ukraine after accusing Kyiv of a missile strike on a tanker in the Caspian Sea.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/iran-us-war-live-trump-hormuz-caspian-sea-tanker-strike-b3022701.html

Having already established that what Trump says can be very far from the truth, this was in the Times:

““All of the people that deal with Iran asked me: ‘Don’t fire,’” Trump added, repeating his frequent insistence that he thinks Iran wants to make a deal.
Behind the scenes, there are different accounts of why his advisers don’t want him to keep firing.
JD Vance, the vice-president, and Jared Kushner, his son-in-law and Middle East negotiator, are said to have appealed for restraint to get talks back on track after the collapse of the memorandum of understanding formally signed on June 17. The 30 days it allowed for the US to end its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz passed on July 17 and it is still in place for Iranian vessels.
General Dan Caine, chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, warned Trump to stop attacks because of declining stockpiles of air-defence interceptors to protect US bases in the region, as well as allies, according to The New York Times. While denying this is the case, the White House will not divulge the numbers of remaining Patriot and Thaad missile interceptors on national-security grounds.
Admiral Brad Cooper, the top US military commander in the Middle East, advised a halt because the offensive had ”

Excerpt From
“Trump thought his power had no limits. In Iran he’s discovering many”
The Times and The Sunday Times
https://apple.news/AYbNRNhIjTn2K-jboCZoHcA
This material may be protected by copyright.

Re my post above on the AFI press gaggle of July 27 2006, there is a bit more on that.

For example, on the Houthi :

QUESTION 00:01:28-00:01:33 (5 SEC)
Mr. President, what has communication been like with the Houthis and the Red Sea?

DONALD TRUMP 00:01:33-00:01:33 ( SEC)
Who?

QUESTION 00:01:33-00:01:36 (3 SEC)
The Houthis. Are you concerned about the disruptions?

DONALD TRUMP 00:01:36-00:01:52 (16 SEC)
Well, we're dealing with Saudi Arabia, and it's a problem that we had a while ago, and we knocked the hell out of them, as you know. And we didn't have any problems with the Houthis after that. But we're not involved with that. But we may -- you know, if they're a problem, we'll probably have to get involved.

So on the Houthi he is dealing with Saudi Arabia. I reckon it could be argued that is into proxy territory.

And on Saudi Arabia and that nuke deal :

QUESTION 00:01:52-00:01:58 (6 SEC)
On Saudi Arabia, have you gotten any indications from Saudi Arabia when it comes to the Abraham Accords, that they will sign on?

DONALD TRUMP 00:01:58-00:02:01 (3 SEC)
We haven't talked about that. No.

Ok. So he signed a deal. Made a big fanfare about it, then the bit about the Abraham accords was added by Trump post signing. That was confirmed by the WH. And now Trump says that has not been talked about.

Now we go onto ammo for the Iran war:

QUESTION 00:02:01-00:02:06 (5 SEC)
You put out on Truth Social Are you concerned about depleted stockpiles if there is Iranian conflict in Iran?

DONALD TRUMP 00:02:06-00:02:29 (23 SEC)
No, we have plenty. We have a lot of ammunition, different types. You know, Biden gave a lot to Ukraine and so we're building that up, but we have a lot. We have a lot of the mid-level stuff, too; I mean, more than we could ever use, no matter what. But we have a lot. I'd like to have more, to be honest, but so much was given to Ukraine by Biden.

When I left, the cupboards were full. When I came here with Obama, he didn't buy ammunition, we had very little and I got it built. Uh, now, as soon as I left, they gave a lot of it to Ukraine. I mean -- I mean, numbers that nobody's ever seen before. So we're building it very rapidly. Uh, plants are being built and a lot of equipment is being built.

The Patriots in particular are being built. THAAD system is going up. We have a lot. Every one of our contractors is building four to five plants right now, and we're in very good shape. But for some of the more sophisticated stuff, we'd certainly like to have more. Biden gave a lot of it away.

So he says he has lots of ammo. But Obama left the cupboards bare, Trump built it up his first term, then Biden gave it away, but he has loads of ammo and now they are building new factories to make more.

Thing is, lots of this is public domain information. Patriot and THAAD are low. And if they are not low, why build all these new factories ?

Yes normal munitions such as dumb bombs the US has loads. The other stuff that he specifically mentions... no.

I just read this in the WSJ about the Saudi Deal. An opinion piece:

“Critics of the recently announced U.S. nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia let out a sigh of relief when President Trump posted on Truth Social that the deal wouldn’t go ahead until Saudi Arabia recognizes Israel and insisted that the agreement permits “no enrichment of material.” Still, there are serious problems with the agreement, not the least of which is that—despite Mr. Trump’s post—it allows for enrichment. The administration and Congress should correct that.
Uranium enrichment can make fuel for both nuclear reactors and nuclear weapons. That’s why for the past half-century Washington has never included nuclear fuel-making as a part of any of its civilian nuclear agreements with states that lack nuclear weapons. In recent decades, other major nuclear supplier states including France, Russia, China, Japan and South Korea have followed America’s example.”
“Washington should continue this policy. The Pentagon recently bombed Iran’s nuclear fuel-making plants. Providing Saudi Arabia a pathway to build the capacity the U.S. Air Force is razing in Iran gives hypocrisy a bad name. It not only would make it more difficult to get Iran to restrict its own program, but also set a poor example and encourage other nuclear suppliers to misbehave.
More important, it’s sure to spook Riyadh’s neighbors. U.S. negotiators agreed that Iran may, after a moratorium, resume enriching uranium. The U.S.-Saudi deal allows a similar privilege to Riyadh. The U.S. got the United Arab Emirates to agree to forgo making nuclear fuel with the caveat that if Washington afforded any neighbor more-generous terms, the U.A.E. could renegotiate.
Then there are Egypt and Turkey, both building large nuclear plants. U.S. diplomats asked both to forswear making nuclear fuel. Both refused. The Saudi deal, in short, could pour proliferation kerosene on these states’ smoldering nuclear ambitions.”
“Energy Secretary Christopher Wright insists the opposite. He says this deal will “uphold the highest standards of nuclear safety and nonproliferation.” In fact, it represents a new low. The agreement doesn’t require Riyadh to adopt the International Atomic Energy Agency’s model inspections under what’s known as the Additional Protocol. These inspections allow short-notice visits at any time, anywhere. One hundred forty-four states have already adopted the Additional Protocol; Saudi Arabia has refused. The fear is that it might want to hide something.”
“The Energy Department is quick to insist that it will “black box” any nuclear fuel-making plant in Saudi Arabia to prevent military diversions. That is magical thinking. No such box has ever been developed, nor has it been explained publicly. That’s because it doesn’t exist.
Saudi nationals couldn’t be kept clear of a large nuclear fuel-making plant in Saudi territory. At a minimum, construction and operation of such a “black box” plant would make it far more difficult to detect Saudi efforts to build a covert facility (possibly with the assistance of its nuclear-armed ally Pakistan). And black boxing can never protect against sovereign Saudi seizure of what’s in the box.”
“Fortunately, the reported deal contains an escape clause. It doesn’t promise the immediate transfer of uranium-enrichment technology. Rather, it pledges a two-year study into the concept. But it doesn’t take two years to figure out that this is a bad idea.
Washington shouldn’t be in the business of transferring nuclear bomb-making capability to Saudi Arabia or any other country. To make sure it doesn’t, Mr. Trump—who relishes getting the best bargain—should renegotiate the deal. Alternatively, Mr. Trump could simply decline to send this bad deal to Congress. If he sends it anyway, lawmakers need to hold hearings and legislate to condition its implementation on making it right.”

Excerpt From
“Opinion | The Saudi Nuclear Deal Invites Disaster”
Henry Sokolski, Matthew Kroenig
The Wall Street Journal
https://apple.news/AG4Jk6waJSFq0a6Ck8sr0gA
This material may be protected by copyright.

Just read this in AlJazeera, from about half an hour ago:

Oman has presented a proposal to Iran for a joint regional mechanism to manage the Strait of Hormuz with voluntary fees, Reuters reports.
Under the Omani proposal, which has regional backing, Iran would not exercise sole control of the vital waterway, an unnamed Gulf source told the agency.
The proposal is based on the Strait of Malacca, where those who use the strait voluntarily contribute to fund navigation, environmental protection and search and rescue.
The US abruptly suspended a campaign of air strikes against Iran over the weekend, raising hopes of a diplomatic solution that would allow shipping to resume in the Strait of Hormuz, which carried one-fifth of global energy supplies before the US-Israel war on Iran.

Voluntary fees ... hmm.

That seems open to abuse considering the IRGC are not exactly reasonable fellows.

I have seen mention of this Malacca fee model. But my understanding is that Indonesia talked about it but scrapped it.

Guess it doesn’t matter if Indonesia scrapped it or not if they are just saying it’s based on that model.

I think the upshot of all this means that the SOH might no longer be free. As they were before…….

What this foolish war has done is shown Iran how much power it has with controlling the SoH. Why should it agree to the Malacca model when it doesn't need to, atm. There will have to be real and guaranteed incentives for any agreement to happen, as they know from experience not to trust anything the US says, after being attacked twice, during negotiations. Trump has shown in real time that bombing doesn't work and I believe that only experienced diplomats, and not two real estate developers, will be able to magic up an off ramp for both the US and Iran.

Well it is Tuesday after all. From the Independent just now:

“President Donald Trump appears to have backtracked on threats to “decimate” Iran, saying that the US was now in a “great position” in negotiations with Tehran.
Six days ago the US leader had threatened to destroy a bridge or power plant every time Iran attacked a ship in the Strait of Hormuz.
However, on Tuesday, he told Fox News that he “would like to avoid attacking power plants and bridges”. “I’m not looking to do that,” he added.
It comes as Oman says it has proposed a Gulf-backed plan for a “voluntary fee” in the vital waterway, which a senior Iranian official told Reuters was being considered by the government in Tehran.
Trump was set to make a final decision on the ceasefire in Iran after a high-stakes meeting with Benjamin Netanyahu today.
Mediators from Pakistan, Egypt and Qatar have been discussing a proposal that would clear up disagreements regarding the Strait of Hormuz on Monday evening; however, the meditators are awaiting the US president’s meeting with the Israeli prime minister before a decision is made.
Tehran has denied that any direct negotiations with Washington are taking place, and says it is only receiving messages from the US ”

Excerpt From
“Iran-US war latest: Trump backtracks on threat to attack power plants days after saying they would be ‘decimated’”
Maroosha Muzaffar, Maryam Zakir-Hussain, Maira Butt
The Independent
https://apple.news/AOOAWSx8kSgai1fChSqe90w
This material may be protected by copyright.

The Independent: What is Oman's plan for 'voluntary fees'?

Under a new Omani proposal, Iran would not exercise sole control and fees would be voluntary, the Gulf source and Western diplomat briefed on the matter told Reuters.

The system would be analogous to one in place on Asia's Strait of Malacca, where Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore ask ships to pay voluntary contributions to fund navigation, environmental protection and search-and-rescue operations.

The Western diplomat compared it to a voluntary carbon tax for flights, where anyone buying a plane ticket can choose to tick a box if they want to pay to offset their emissions.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/iran-us-war-live-trump-hormuz-caspian-sea-tanker-strike-b3022701.html

Interview: Donald Trump Calls In for a Live Interview on Fox News' Fox & Friends - July 28, 2026

Having a look at the transcript for this, the discussion is about Lindsey Fraham, then Iran is mentioned and Graham was against Iran getting nukes. That leads to this :

"AINSLEY EARHARDT 00:04:36-00:04:44 (8 SEC)
Satellite imagery, and intel indicates that Iran is actively constructing and fortifying Pickax Mountain. How will we respond?"

"DONALD TRUMP 00:04:44-00:05:03 (19 SEC)
Well, I don't need Bibi to tell me that. Bibi is telling me that because he wants me to stay involved. I mean, I don't necessarily we have the finest because of Space Force. We have the greatest cameras in the world focused on we know exactly what's going on. But no, I heard Bibi announce that. I said why don't you just tell it to me? Why do you have to announce it to the world?
I know exactly what's going on at Pickax, it's not a big problem. We took out their nuclear sites, and we'll have to take out Pickax if we don't make a deal. If we don't make a deal, we'll take it out very easily."

The Fox presenter had not mentioned Netanyahu. But Trump immediately volunteers what must be part of his discussion with Netanyahu.

"Bibi is telling me that because he wants me to stay involved."

"Why do you have to announce it to the world?"

So it appears Bibi wants him to stay involved, and that Bibi is trying to force Trumps hand by announcing thing Trump would rather not be mentioned.

Now see what Steve Doocy of Fox says "

"STEVE DOOCY 00:05:15-00:05:34 (20 SEC)
So, Mr. President, Netanyahu, as you said, you know exactly what he's going to say Mr. President, we've got to keep this war going. At the same time, I know that there are Republican officials in Washington, DC, who have an eye on November and they're going, Mr. President, you've got to wrap it up. So, you've got two different messages wrap it up, keep going."

Yeah. Fox news said :" Mr. President, we've got to keep this war going."

So he has Netantahu at him to bomb, and Fox news.

Source :

Interview: Donald Trump Calls In for a Live Interview on Fox News' Fox & Friends - July 28, 2026 — Trump Archive (trump-archive.com)