US - Iran Peace agreement Part 3

[TopPocketFind]

https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/conflict-in-the-middle-east/5535141-us-iran-peace-agreement-part-2https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/conflict-in-the-middle-east/5535141-us-iran-peace-agreement-part-2

No, I don't know and neither do you.

I don't trust anyone when it comes to nuclear weapons.

Agree but at least Iran allowed inspections and signed the JCPOA
I find countries that refuse more of a concern
Israel for example did neither !

Good to hear these
Some strong and well thought out posts there

I do know the IRGC are not to be trusted to develop nuclear weapons and so do all the countries that have designated them a terrorist group or, in the case of the UK, designated them as a threat to national security.

Wouldn't it be great @TopPocketFind
if no one had nuclear weapons !

The mere knowledge that some countries do must be very intimidating

Whilst I am sure many countries have issues with others, even if they have signed up to the NPT, Countries primarily concerned about Israel's undeclared nuclear arsenal ( Israel’s only relevance atm because they’ve started a war)
include
Iran,
Egypt,
and various Arab League states.

They cite Israel's policy of "nuclear opacity"
—never officially confirming or denying the weapons
—and its refusal to sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).

These nations frequently push for a Middle East zone free of nuclear weapons.

Because Israel maintains deliberate ambiguity regarding its capabilities, exact stockpiles are unverified, though international watchdogs estimate
an arsenal of approximately 80 to 90 warheads.
Regional states argue this asymmetry destabilises the Middle East and highlights an international double standard regarding nuclear scrutiny.

Perhaps This war, and the US and Israel’s desires re Irans capabilities, will highlight the lack of transparency of Israel’s
I’m surprised that didn’t form part of the ‘suspended’ memorandum

Just think what Israel could do with nuclear weapons if they really did have genocidal aspirations.

Luckily - unlike the IRGC and their proxies - they don't.

Because I think most of us (all of us?) believe it highly likely that Israel do in fact have nuclear weapons.

But of course Dr Prune - we can probably all agree - that it would be great if no countries at all had them.

A country doesn't need genocidal aspirations to launch a nuclear weapon.

But if they did have them and they had nuclear weapons to hand you could see the temptation?

Hence the worry about Israel
So yes
Agree

Hence the worry about Iran.

For some reason, governments around the world seem to find the threat of the IRGC getting them a lot more alarming than the thought that Israel probably already have them.

Iran were prepared to sign up
That’s the whole point of my posts

Meanwhile

Football is about to start and I’m supporting Spain
a country that stood up to Trump !

Whether they win the football or not they are winners in my book !

I'm supporting Spain too but because I got them in a sweepstake.

We're on the same side Dr Prune 😀

So what was the purpose of your statement? Just to vent about how you feel Iran is untrustworthy? This is a war not a competition about which side is more mean!

🤣🤣
it’s a first

The reason for the ambiguity especially in America is that if it was acknowledged they would be legally prohibited from supplying Israel with Military assistance:

"The most relevant statute is the Symington Amendment, codified at 22 U.S.C. § 2799aa-1. The law directs that most U.S. economic and military assistance “shall be terminated” to any country that delivers or receives nuclear enrichment technology outside full-scope international safeguards."
Is US Aid to Israel Legal Under American Nonproliferation Law?

It's an open secret that Israel has Nuclear weapons, America knows this as the material used to create their Israel's first Nuclear weapons was stolen from a small Pennsylvania company called NUMEC, whose owner had extensive ties to Israeli intelligence (including to the handler of America's most prolific traitor Jonathan Pollard, who spied for Israel selling classified information. Fun fact - He was jailed for 20+ years before being pardoned by Trump, moved to Israel and was flown on Miriam Adelson's plane and met by Netanyahu at the Airport).

After an audit it was found that up to 200kg of Uranium was missing. This was known as the Apollo affair. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_affair
This video is a good breakdown, it includes the fights that JFK had with Ben Gurion over inspections.

This was also confirmed in 1991 after Investigative reporter Seymour Hersch interviewed an Israeli whistle-blower and released the book the Samson Option, which details from Wikipedia:

• How Israel stole United States satellite reconnaissance intelligence and used it to target the Soviet Union.
• How Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir directed that some of the intelligence stolen by American Jonathan Pollard, who spied for Israel, be turned over to the Soviet Union.
• How Israel created a false control room at the Dimona nuclear facility to hide from American nuclear inspectors its use in creating nuclear weapons.
• How President Dwight Eisenhower’s administration tried and failed to force Israel to acknowledge its nuclear ambitions.
• How Israel threatened to use nuclear weapons on the third day of the 1973 Yom Kippur War, blackmailing U.S. President Richard Nixon into airlifting military supplies.
• How Israel used a top London newspaper editor to capture Mordechai Vanunu.
• How a top American Democratic Party fund-raiser influenced the White House while raising money for the Israeli bomb.
• How American intelligence finally learned the truth about Dimona.

The American Library Association book review lists additional "significant revelations" in the book:[2]

• Fuller details about the Israeli bombing of the Iraqi nuclear facility in 1981.
• That Israel collaborated with South Africa on a nuclear test over the Indian Ocean in 1979.
• That during the 1991 Gulf War Israel pointed nuclear armed mobile missiles at Iraq.
• That Israel holds a few neutron bombs in addition to several hundred other nuclear weapons.
• That U.S. policy towards Israel's nuclear program "was not just one of benign neglect: it was a conscious policy of ignoring reality."

The New Scientist book review lists specific examples of U.S. official's suppression of information:

• CIA analysts kept quiet about what they found in Lockheed U-2 spy plane photographs of Dimona during the 1950s.
• Lewis Strauss, chairman of the Atomic Energy Commission during the 1950s, probably knew about and supported the Israeli nuclear weapons program.[2]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Samson_Option:_Israel%27s_Nuclear_Arsenal_and_American_Foreign_Policy

It really is worth a read.

"Mordecai Vanunu, the insider who had the guts to reveal the truth that Israel was producing nuclear weapons. It begins in 1986 and spans the globe, with a stopover in Australia. Then there's Israel's revenge: The alluring female spy, the honey trap, the kidnapping and the trial that sees Vanunu jailed as a traitor. Now, he's technically a free man but Mordechai Vanunu is still very much a prisoner of the state."

Because it is a nonsensical question on many levels.

It's a bit like asking how to get to California from LA. It is a pointless question.

Because countries do not state if they trust a military part of another country. In fact, countries do not even trust each other. Countries can't trust. It's like asking if my laptop trusts my printer. Trust is a people thing. Not an object thing.

Did EU leaders trust Biben not to invade Greenland ? Not a question that was asked, because it was never on the cards. Do EU leaders trust Trump won't invade Greenland ? No, because he said he wants it.

Does JD Vance tust the UK PM to control nukes ? Appears not, because Vance is a Great Replacement conspiracist.

Does Trump Trust that Netanyahu won't use nukes ? Doubt it.

Does any world leader trust Trump on anything he says ? Doubt it.

Did Obama and the P5 plus one trust the Iranian leaders of the time not to develop nukes with the JCPOA ? Nah. And that is why they put tests in place. Did the leaders trust that the tests would work ? Yes, insofar as it was a better option than no JCPOA and no tests.

But things change. Leaders change. Circumstances change.

No Twigs, we haven't established that. You are just expressing your personal opinion. As I said, your question was a nonsensical one.

You are doing the same thing you always do of accusing other posters of saying things that they haven't said, even cherry picking a small section of what I actually said to try to boost your accusation. You then get very upset when people challenge you and get their posts deleted. It is a recurring pattern on this board and others.

Here is what I actually said for you again:

'Are you suggesting that the fact that you feel that the IRGC are untrustworthy, despite the fact that they had not developed a nuclear weapon and were complying with international inspections, unlike Israel, is a justification for the US and Israeli starting a major war? A war which was going to result in devastating consequences not just for the region but also for the world economy due to the closure of vital shipping lanes. Do you think that sounds like a 'sensible' decision by all these 'sensible' countries?'

Yay for Spain winning! I also supported Spain despite having Argentinian members. I think everyone was sick of the cheating and attempt at political messaging!

And on Trust re Nukes. We have discussed MAD on these threads. And how the whole basis of MAD if that people do not trust each other. That is why MAD exists.

For example. Xi of the PRC has said he won't do a nuke first strike. Do I personally trust him on that ? I say 95%. Because I can see one scenario where he might. And that would be a conventional strike on the 3 gorges dam. So then the question changes to do I trust Trump not to do a strike on the 3 Gorges, and that is yes, on the condition that the PRC and the US are not at war. But if there was a war, who would I trust most ? Xi not to do a first strike, or Trump not to hit the dam ?

Well, plenty of evidence that Trump is dumb as a rock.

It's why we have MAD.

Thanks @BelleHathor. I saw that tweet on X too.
I have to admit that I had been impressed by Joe Kent up until this. Do you think it is possible that he might be trying to appeal to the administration to stop and get out but in the sort of stupid language they understand? Clutching at straws perhaps...

As to the quite frequent US attitude towards 'foreigners', I think some of it is stupidity and ignorance but also an arrogance which, as you say, assumes superiority and a need to educate all the savages! It's pretty common amongst Brits and other Europeans, unfortunately.

I don't get "very upset" when people "challenge" me - they do it every single day on here. What does annoy me is personal attacks and I'm not about to tolerate those despite it is so grating apparently for those that like to dish them out with no repercussions.

Let's face it - my posts get deleted too the minute I say something that could be interpreted as a rule break - so let's not be hypocrites about it. Other people report posts too, they just don't admit to it as I have done.

Moving on - yay! for Spain winning against Argentina, it wasn't right that they were getting away with so much cheating (and I won the sweepstake😀).

It is sad about these US military being killed, but it is predicted with the ammo counting theory. Because as interceptor stock run low, some areas will be undefended from Iranian low cost munitions.

And there is statistics of course, The more strikes, the more chance of a hit.

I notice from the news feeds, that it is usually reported that it is the Gulf states who are intercepting what Iran fires. So the Gulf states are using their Patriots that they bought from the US ? That does not really make sense. Because A)- I thought the whole point of the US having bases there was for defense, and B)- if the targets are US bases, then intercepting missiles on the way to targets increases the chance of falling debris causing damage to non military stuff.

It's a strange thing really, because it is a US war, but other nations are doing a lot of the fighting. Just like Proxies really.

@RedTagAlan We know many countries have said Iran must never be allowed to develop nuclear weapons because a lot of countries have made an explicit statement about that. What we don't seem to have are any statements from countries saying Iran should be allowed to develop nuclear weapons, apart from of course, Iran themselves. Or perhaps someone knows otherwise?

A reminder of some countries that have made statements:

Israel and the US, naturally.

The Council of the European Union stated that "Iran must never be allowed to develop or acquire a nuclear weapon".

The leaders of the G7 nations jointly stated "Iran can never have a nuclear weapon".

Secretary General of NATO Mark Rutte stated that NATO has been clear that Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon.

Australia agree that Iran must never gain a nuclear weapon.

In June 2026 a joint statement between the US and the Gulf Co- Operation countries (Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE) stated that reaffirmed “the shared objective of preventing Iran from ever developing or otherwise acquiring a nuclear weapon”.