This from the Guardian indicating the lack of Iranian expertise in the Trumps administration
The potential for miscalculation is heightened by the absence of Iran specialists in Trump’s administration.
Swanson – who has said he was forced out of his state departmentpost after a critical tweet from the rightwing influencer, Laura Loomer – blamed the deficiency on Marco Rubio, the secretary of state, who he said had “physically removed” key personnel.
“I’m struck by some of the leaks that have come out about decision-making in this war, where Rubio is reportedly skeptical about the regime change aims that the Israelis propose to Trump, but then says nothing,” said Swanson, now with the Atlantic Council. “He’s basically neutralized the [state] department, then stays quiet [but] privately tries to clear his name in the aftermath.”
Instead of seasoned Iran specialists, Trump has relied on his tried-and-trusted negotiating team – namely
Steve Witkoff, his chief envoy, Jared Kushner, his son-in-law, and latterly,
Vance, who opposed the initial decision to go to war and was a key figure in negotiating the MoU.
“That is how he fundamentally misunderstood his adversary,” said Alex Vatanka, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington DC.
“Expertise would have come handy for the president, to actually listen to folks who’ve watched this Iranian system, and would have told him ‘They’re not businessmen from New York. They’re made of a different type of DNA.’
“Trump now has an adversary that is willing to suffer a lot more than he thought. They are willing to risk on playing the strait of Hormuz card because it puts them in charge of so much of the global energy supply and turns some of the wealthiest countries in the Gulf into their hostages.”
Iran’s readiness to gamble could drive Trump to further raise the stakes, making further escalation – including a ground invasion – more likely.