Trump throwing a lot of people under the bus because of stock markets?

[mids2019]

When you start a war you finish it in my opinion. There has been no other war that has been stopped because of a slide on the Dow Jones or an oil price spike. For Trump to now prematurely call an end to the war simply because of economics will simply mean IIrans drone terrorism has worked.

The people of Iran will be left with a job half done without the space needed for an uprising.

A new leader with good reason to ideological hate Israel and the US will realise the only method of future deterrence of Iran is through acquiring a nuclear weapon as their conventional weapons were obliterated. Iran will now do everything possible to acquire such a weapon.

This is a time for resolve Mr. President. There is still a chance to destroy this regime maybe with limited target ground troop assaults. The world actually will be safer if you continue.

My own opinion, fwiw, is that Iran will not agree to end this war, which is existential for them, without major concesssions which the US may find it (politically) impossible to give them. Of course, DJT will want to spin them as a win too.

You’re absolutely right and most US voters agree you:
https://www.newsweek.com/epstein-files-linked-to-donald-trumps-iran-war-most-voters-say-11663251

I read, not sure if it’s true, that internet searches for Iran are up 1200% and searches for Epstein are down 95%.

Do you mean Iran will have too many enemies?

I think the political dynamics between ME countries is complicated. Most have only normalised relations with Israel under pressure from the US whilst the majority of their populations are sympathetic to the Palestinian cause. They relied on the US for regional security but have been attacked for hosting US military bases. Oman has not, to my knowledge, been bombed by Iran. Oman does not have any US military bases. The US is unable to re-supply them with interceptor missiles so they are sitting ducks. Their oil infrastructure and desalination plants are necessary for survival but the US is unable to protect them. Will they decide that on balance hosting US military bases is more of a liability than a benefit? I don't know.

American THAAD air defence systems have been removed from South Korea and taken to Israel. In the last week KJU has been testing cruise missiles from a new warship. It all signals that the US cannot be relied upon so countries may start managing their own national security. I wouldn't be surprised if South Korea looks to develop nuclear weapons too.

Given the US started the war I'm not convinced that Iran will suffer more reputational damage. Time will tell.

I’m not sure about the reputational damage part but the EU recently proscribed the IRGC.

The European Union has added Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to its terrorist list in response to Tehran's deadly crackdown on protesters in recent weeks.

"Repression cannot go unanswered," the bloc's top diplomat Kaja Kallas said, adding the move would put the IRGC - a major military, economic and political force in Iran - on the same level as jihadists like al-Qaeda and the Islamic State group.

Canada, Sweden, Australia and US did earlier. So I take the point about charging for passage through the Strait but would they even pay a proscribed leadership?

The EU have sanctioned Iran for years. I doubt the IRGC are crying themselves to sleep because the EU thinks they are terrorists. Unless the EU are planning to join the war it doesn't really matter what they say or think. If they join the war they would be truly fucking stupid because then the Houthis would close access to the Bab-el-Mandeb meaning all goods from Asia heading to Europe would have to go around Africa which would increase prices because of increased transit time and fuel costs.

It's almost as if Europeans and North Americans cannot understand this is FAFO. We do not have a good hand. The arrogance is cringe inducing.

It’s not so much about what the IRGC thinks it’s more your point on paying for passage. I’m not sure how long those countries would be closed off. Ik they don’t want to get involved but there will be an economic hit.

As for arrogance of proscription, I guess the torture etc of the people doesn’t just go without consequence.

It’s a tough one, holding people to ransom via geography is obviously working for them. I don’t think we’re going to do particularly well either. They would always have that geographical advantage whether everyone just let them do what they wanted or not.

US has several ships on the way to the Golf. The Tripoli and another one has been called from some other part of the world. They will take a few more days to arrive. I think the USS Tripoli will be in the area in 4 or 5 days. I do not follow them online, but for what I last heard that it would take them to get there by memory.
I think the other ship is a good number of days away.
It is unclear ( what a surprise!) if Trump will put boots on the ground. He has a few days to decide, in theory, due to the marines being still on transit.

If they will stick to the few days of respite, obviously we do not know. But they would be stupid not to take it. And it is not the same to be sanctioned, that be held responsible for the biggest financial crisis of all times, by the whole world. If any of the 3 actors here want a future, they will have to show some respect for the rest of the world.

A half solution to this where we are at the same point in 6 months, one year or 5 years, or whatever time frame is not acceptable.

I'm surprised that anyone is interested in what Kallas has to say. She has consistently been the very opposite of diplomatic and has done huge damage to the reputation and the economy of the EU.

Absolutely.
Especially 'the arrogance is cringe inducing.'

Anyone on here or the EU? I don’t think it matters if it’s the former they’ve still acted as a bloc on it.

Not sure the US can claim moral high ground on torture, Guantanamo was hardly their finest hour. Bombing a school full of children is pretty shameful too. Probably best if we don't delve too deeply into how Israel treats detainees, particularly the ones held without due process or access to any legal representation. Netanyahu is also wanted for war crimes by the international courts and is continuing armed conflict to avoid answering corruption charges in Israel. Has the EU proscribed the US or Israel?

I'm not sure I understand what point you are trying to make in the rest of your post. Iran was not obstructing the S of H, despite sanctions, until they were bombed. As I said earlier, it's asymmetric warfare, they are using the leverage they have available to them. Blaming them for defending themselves is unreasonable. Maybe we could have just behaved decently and negotiated in good faith. I will not explain again how many times we've screwed them over. I'm pretty sick of US/Israeli/European arrogance causing chaos all over the globe and blaming the people they harm for the chaos when they eventually stand up for themselves.

The invasion of Iran was illegal and an act of aggression , the regime in Iran is abhorrent however there are a number of countries whose regime I also think is parent. I don’t think we can start invading countries just because we disagree with them. That said to invade the country then to tell the oppressed in that country to rise up and we will support them, to look now like we will just negotiate with the leaders such a betrayal and really is condemning huge numbers to almost certain death and torture. So whilst I think the invasion was illegal now it’s happened. There needs to be some way of ensuring the safety of those individuals within the country but were told they were going to be supported. I think this is just a mess and what’s worse is it is a tragedy for those innocent people tied up in it.

It’s not just Putin doing well from the war.

I do really feel for the people there not least due to the oppression from the leaders. I wouldn’t want to experience what they are enduring. I hope they can get get out of it eventually.

Which points to insider trading, as the trades were scheduled minutes before Trump’s social media post. But the oh so moral American authorities won't investigate these funds nor check if they have any links to the Trump family!

It’s certainly interesting looking at the charts.
Somebody seems to be getting advance notice.

The Dems were bad but the Trump family have taken insider trading and general profitting from wars to a new level!
As you say, nothing will be done about it.

A few 1000 marines isn't going to make a credible invasion force, Iran has planned for this eventuality for years.... around 800,000 allied forces took part in Desert Storm, almost 700,000 were from the US.

The Hormuz coast line is vast and missiles etc can be launched from inland positions, plus any invasion will lead to missiles fired at other Gulf states gas/oil infrastructure.

But if we want oil at $200 + a barrel, then yes a ground invasion should do it.

If Iran gets a Nuke, this will just need to be managed, as NK is or Pakistan/India but to get such a weapon, they need outside technical help, is it really in China's or Russia's interests to provide this?
Esp as the US would try and destroy such "help"

All this sounds very much like Iraq and WMDs'

I don't think it's the number of Marines that matter, I think it's the ships and the kit on them. Marines can be flown in, ships can't. without their amphibious ships and dock ships, Marines are really just ordinary soldiers.

"The Tripoli Amphibious Ready Group includes the America-class amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli, the San Antonio-class amphibious transport dock ships USS New Orleans and USS San Diego and the embarked 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit."

Source :

Pentagon reportedly sending more warships and Marines to Middle East (navytimes.com)

I am thinking it is to either keep an eye on the shipping through Hormuz (if Iran cooperates) or to try to take a piece of coast long enough to allow for shipping (if Iran does not cooperate. Small amount of land component that many experts doubt it will be feasible....). Watching and dealing with small boats that could carry mines. Intercept missiles shot to ships or to other allies in the Gulf. Maybe start clearing debris and repairs in some oil installations. Scort ships. Help organise lanes on the Strait. Things like that. I suppose. Who knows? Does Trump know?

I think any land invasion will be met with huge resistance, further attacks on Gulf neighbours and 100s maybe 1000s of US dead/injured... and far higher fuel costs in the US, large SM losses and Hormuz would still not be open, no tanker will get insurance to sail through a war zone.

Like it or not, Iran holds the cards as Trump would say.

The only way out of this is negotiation and Iran will be left stronger than ever.....

Has Europe been that arrogant in this case? I thought we had come a long way away from this. No European country has been directly involved. We are guilty, I think, of keeping quiet and look the other way. I suppose to try and keep some normality with our "old ally", the US.
What have you found arrogant on any European response to this crisis?

I agree. Even one soldier in Iran's soil will trigger a massive response. Hopefully it will not get to that.
There are not good outcomes to this shit show. The only option is to stop and try to sort what we are left with. Which will be substantially worst than what we had before the war started.

I agree, but we all 3 sides to agree to stop.

Israel are plainly saying they have no intention or doing so and Iran have denied any negotiations and so far it seems Witkolf has turned up to talks in Pakistan and been met by no one.

My suspicion is that Iran will want make sure the consequences of this war are very painful and so fully felt that it is never contemplated again. They don't want Trump to find a little face saving off ramp. They want it to be clear that their enemies have been defeated.

On Europe apart from a couple of notable exceptions (the Spanish Prime Minister) they have blamed Iran and called for Iran to restrain itself, audacious and arrogant:

• EU Response: The European Union has not issued a singular, unanimous condemnation of the US-Israel school bombing specifically, but in a March 19, 2026, summit, EU leaders did condemn "Iran's indiscriminate military strikes against countries in the region," while failing to condemn the US-Israeli strikes on civilian infrastructure as a breach of international law.

European leaders did not even have the basic human decency to offer condolences to the families of the school bombing.

Therefore they have no moral standing to make any demands as they are blaming the country that was unilaterally illegally attacked by 2 nuclear powers during negotiations.

It's victim blaming and bullying with a colonial tinge of "get back in your box"

Which is why Iran already called Europe irrelevant:
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/15/irans-araghchi-slams-european-powers-for-irrelevance-in-nuclear-talks