Trump throwing a lot of people under the bus because of stock markets?

[mids2019]

When you start a war you finish it in my opinion. There has been no other war that has been stopped because of a slide on the Dow Jones or an oil price spike. For Trump to now prematurely call an end to the war simply because of economics will simply mean IIrans drone terrorism has worked.

The people of Iran will be left with a job half done without the space needed for an uprising.

A new leader with good reason to ideological hate Israel and the US will realise the only method of future deterrence of Iran is through acquiring a nuclear weapon as their conventional weapons were obliterated. Iran will now do everything possible to acquire such a weapon.

This is a time for resolve Mr. President. There is still a chance to destroy this regime maybe with limited target ground troop assaults. The world actually will be safer if you continue.

Well you have been continually cherry picking the statement. And now I posted the statement you say it " was late". But you do not seem to have said that before.

And the Ottawa statement was clear: Negotiations. So what list of options do you want to see ? There does only appear 2 options. Talk or war. The G7 being firmly in the "talk" camp.

Could you share your list of options with the forum ?

The G7 statement was late for what?

'Anyone who feels like they want to', what does that mean?

Are you talking about posters?

Well yeh I think it’s late. And? This has been foreseeable for some time. It’s still better than not having it however.

Options I don’t have much - I doubt anyone does. If it’s talk or war then the first better work or we’ll get the latter at a far greater level later anyway.

So you want to see a list of options, but you don't have much. So why do you wan't to see a list when it appears there is no list ?. It's binary. Talk or war.

Well, in the last few mins Trump has said :

" Donald Trump says talks between the US and Iran have been "very strong" and Iran wants "very much to make a deal".
Speaking from Florida in the last few moments, Trump said there have been "major points of agreement" in the discussions involving US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, which he says have gone "perfectly".
Talks took place yesterday and went into the evening, he said.
"They (Iran) want very much to make a deal. We'd like to make a deal too. We're going to get together today, by probably phone because it's very hard... for them to get out, I guess."
Trump said he would see how the five-day pause in US strikes on Iranian power plants goes - adding that if there's no settlement, "we'd just keep bombing our little hearts out".
Trump also said the US spoke to Israel "a little while ago".
Asked if Israel would abide by any ceasefire agreement with Iran, Trump said: "I think Israel will be very happy with what we have. This will be peace for Israel. Long term peace, guaranteed peace if this happens."
"We are very willing to make a deal," Trump insisted.
"It's got to be a good deal. And it's got to be no more wars, no more nuclear weapons. [Iran are] not going to have nuclear weapons anymore. They're agreeing to that." (Sky News)

Are you ok with that ? If Trump makes a deal ?

Or do you think the bombing should go on ?

I’m totally fine with people agreeing there are few options. I have thought that since the outset.

If it stops here then someone needs to ensure we don’t see nuclear weapon production and use in five to ten years. If everyone thinks that’s talks I hope they’ve got it right.

None of us are experts on here or we wouldn't be spending so much time on MN. I think I know as much about the situation as most posters but am not a military analyst. Neither are you.

We had the JCPOA, Iran was compliant. They have attempted to negotiate with us twice in the last 12 months. The last round of negotiations would have achieved a better deal than the JCPOA. We killed the Ayatollah who impose a fatwa on nuclear weapons. Despite the concessions Iran was willing to make, which included handing over all the uranium enriched to 60% (still not weapons grade), we bombed them. We have shown we cannot be trusted.

We had the solution right in front of us, we refused to take yes for an answer. You have been told this many times but you kept coming back asking for solutions which would avoid a bloody war and global economic meltdown. Perhaps the west could try, just once, not being duplicitous cunts when we engage in negotiations. Although that would be very disappointing for anyone who is desperate for us to bomb brown people who happen to have a different religion.

That is a proper optimistic statement. Where is it from? If you do not mind me asking.
Is it an official site?

Trump. He says almost a deal and shooting on hold.

Shall we thank whoever is keeping the price low? They do sound like a real life hero to me!
It could be US itself, or Europe. To mitigate how much money both Putin and Iran are getting from selling their oil.
Or could be the whole world together, attempting to put a lid on it.
Whorver is, they are making the citizens of the world the greatest of services.

Oh my God! That is great great news!
I do hope that all parties stick to it. It is a once in a million times chance for peace.

Totally agree apart from the the "we" bits.

It was Trump that tore up the JCPOA. WE were begging him not to.

And Netanyahu was cheering Trump on of course. So I think we can replace "we" with "they"

:-)

Trump didn't say the war was over. What he said was that he's postponing the power plant strikes he had previously threatened if the Straight of Hormuz wasn't reopened by this evening:

• Donald Trump says the US and Iran have held talks on the "complete and total resolution of hostilities" in the Middle East
• He says that, as a result of the talks, he has postponed threatened strikes on Iranian power plants for five days - oil and gas prices fall immediately

However, Iran's foreign ministry denies such talks have taken place, according to the BBC's US partner CBS

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/ce35wke27ynt

This is the oil futures market being manipulated. Its oil that has not been delivered yet. Futures were intended to provide a degree of certainty in volatile commodities markets, wheat for example, so that buyers and sellers would know what they would pay and get paid. Traders now buy futures contracts with the intention of selling them on at a profit. The problem is that you have to provide the goods when the contract matures. When we stop dealing with futures and start dealing with the reality of actual oil volume in the global market the shit is going to hit the fan.

Agreed. I tend to use "we" in acknowledgement that in terms of policy on Iranian nuclear weapons we are politically aligned with the US.

Mushmonster the problem is the old adage "Robbing Peter to pay Paul" meaning "taking from one source to pay another, often creating a new debt to settle an old one, resulting in no overall financial gain. It describes a short-sighted, zero-sum, or counterproductive action where solving one problem merely creates another."

So it's favourable now that someone is playing in the markets ti keep prices down and avoid giving people a shock, eventually we will all have to pay for it via higher inflation and prices. 🥺

@Alexandra2001 " can you walk us through how the regime will be topped "

You asked this of me, it sounds like you think I'm in the pentagon.

Howeevr thinking more about it I think Iran letting every nuke expert in to find the uranium and destroy it would be a good conclusion

At least is better than the 48 hours or else scenario.
I have hope that the few days of no firing will allow ships safe passage and we get that supply going.
Trump has shot himself on the foot. Whatever economic crisis is to come, and I get we will have one, he will be blamed alongside Iran and Israel. He will never get out of it. But if they do destroy any more vital resources and they do not allow traffic of goods enough to cover basics and recover the economy. Then they will face global wrath. Iran is not innocent, at all!, but it was Israel and US who started the firing. Trump is not going to escape any blame on this. Nevermind how much he praises himself.

I get it. But better in installments, isn't it? I know there is damage already done.
Just, really, want them stop making more damage.
It is better for the world to soften the blow. Mind you, banks and markets may need to show some restrain for once in history. It will not make them hungry to the point of starvation!
I still remember when we had to step in to "save" the banks. Well, coins do have two faces.

Iran has not agreed to a cessation of hostilities. Trump has declared he won't bomb their civilian energy infrastructure for 5 days or until after the markets close in Friday evening. Iran is not going to open the S of H. This is asymmetric warfare. Iran cannot compete with Israel and the US in terms of weaponry so they are leveraging economic damage.
War risk insurance will remain unavailable until a deal is struck so ships are unlikely to try to get through. Iran is now charging a fee for safe passage with countries not involved in hostilities and they are selling more oil than ever to China. There is no incentive for them to open the straits.

I take your point, it’s well made but I’m not sure it’ll just continue. There will be too many on the enemy list.

There is an incentive. To show a will to cease the war. To recoup too.
Same as US is waiting for their ships to arrive.

At least any of them ( the 3 countries directly involved) has substantial intelligence of something going on in the background, they will be crazy to pass. But they were crazy to start it anyway.
It is difficult to stay on the side of optism. That is for sure! But I am going to vet on the side of international pressure at this point.

Iran have planned for a long war. We have screwed them over not once, not twice but three times. Twice in the last year. They know that if they pause now America and Israel will use the opportunity to re-arm and will be back for another go next year. Iran probably only has the resources to do this once. This is existential for them, they have no intention of allowing US and the Israelis to come in and mow the grass every couple of years as Israel has done in Gaza. They know it will be painful for them but they are going to make sure it's really painful for the US.

They do not need to prove they are looking for peace, they have tried to negotiate it many times and the US started a war by bombing a school. They are making more money now than they were before the war. We sanctioned them so heavily that they have no economic incentive to stop the war. Most of the family of the current Ayatollah have been killed, I imagine he's not overflowing with goodwill.

The US has been planning to attack Iran since at least 2002. The interview with Generally Wesley Clark where he lays out the US plan to destabilise 7 countries in the region can still be found on YouTube.

I'm not sure I understand your point about American ships.

I don't know exactly how they manipulate the markets but the US is most certainly doing so. Bessant (Treasury secretary) has talked about this several times. I assume oil has dropped because of DJT's lates TS post. It's crazy how one crazy man has such an influence on markets, the markets being one of his main concerns.