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Conflict in the Middle East
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21
MushMonster · 22/06/2025 14:05

The White House says black by speaker 1 and white by speaker 2.
Anyway, this is Israel's war more than US and one of their ministers was reported chasing regime change around 6 days ago.
Plus their talk and actions does say it. It is far too similar to other long and costly conflicts we have been dragged into. Plus there is very little to be found which is actually allowed in the international law we are signed to. There should not be any surprise on UK wanting to stay well out of it.

I see any changes in Iran less likely now than before Iran was attacked, actually.

ChocolateGanache · 22/06/2025 14:08

HellsBalls · 22/06/2025 12:10

Iran doesn’t need to surrender, just agree to peace. They need to quit the nuclear program, stop attacking Israel and stop funding terrorists.
They now have no air force nor air defenses. If they get hairy arsed in the Straits then they will have no navy nor naval docks left.
No one is invading Iran. It’s too large. There is no appetite for it. There never was.
Any regime change needs to be done by the Iranian people themselves. Everyone else should keep well out of it.
I hope any further military action is restricted to military targets. The Iranians are good people, led by evil people.

They are good people.
What a nightmare 💔

EasternStandard · 22/06/2025 14:10

I’m fine with no regime change as response. And the clarity on no appetite for ground war or open conflict which was also responded to.

Listening to analysis it sounds like a specific strike that was probably effective.

MushMonster · 22/06/2025 14:13

@EasternStandard if you are refering to the US attack in isolation, what you say makes some sense. Though many experts think US will be pulled in even further.
But if you are refering to the wider Israel- Iran war, then not much. Because Israel and Iran continue their exchanges, as we speak.

EasternStandard · 22/06/2025 14:19

MushMonster · 22/06/2025 14:13

@EasternStandard if you are refering to the US attack in isolation, what you say makes some sense. Though many experts think US will be pulled in even further.
But if you are refering to the wider Israel- Iran war, then not much. Because Israel and Iran continue their exchanges, as we speak.

Edited

Yes I was thinking Iran might just take out more on Israel as they already are this morning.

If limited to that then avoiding other escalation is better although of course awful for the people who are impacted in Iran and Israel.

BelleHathor · 22/06/2025 14:36

Yup, pictures are starting to come out of Fordow and thankfully the damage looks minimal with extremely small craters. The Uranium wasn't there so little nuclear risk.

Trump’s actions were an act of war and in violation of International law (giving Iran the option to unilaterally withdraw from the NPT and respond).

It seems that Iran is going to retaliate (and has already) against Israel and reserve its right to respond to America at a later date and time, therefore not falling for the bait to escalate to a wider war now.

Iran is most probably watching the civil war in MAGA where the anti war wing were labelled "panicans" and feel betrayed by Trump. Staying quiet white MAGA destroys itself is currently more beneficial.

EasternStandard · 22/06/2025 14:42

BelleHathor · 22/06/2025 14:36

Yup, pictures are starting to come out of Fordow and thankfully the damage looks minimal with extremely small craters. The Uranium wasn't there so little nuclear risk.

Trump’s actions were an act of war and in violation of International law (giving Iran the option to unilaterally withdraw from the NPT and respond).

It seems that Iran is going to retaliate (and has already) against Israel and reserve its right to respond to America at a later date and time, therefore not falling for the bait to escalate to a wider war now.

Iran is most probably watching the civil war in MAGA where the anti war wing were labelled "panicans" and feel betrayed by Trump. Staying quiet white MAGA destroys itself is currently more beneficial.

Why do you want the damage to the nuclear capability to be minimal?

jimmyeatworld · 22/06/2025 14:55

EasternStandard · 22/06/2025 14:42

Why do you want the damage to the nuclear capability to be minimal?

I believe the poster meant from a radiation perspective

HellsBalls · 22/06/2025 14:58

Iran ‘responding’ to America goes one way for Iran.

MushMonster · 22/06/2025 15:06

We cannot answer for previous poster, but my first thoughts when I read about the attacks were: we do not want a second, potentially bigger, Chernobyl.

Which is the gist of them attacking nuclear sites, in full breach of international law and nuclear agreements.

One can only hope that someone in their teams has the mental ability to plan the attacks to not damage critical structures in a way that may lead to external release of material/ radiation.
They do claim, so far, no radiation.

EasternStandard · 22/06/2025 15:16

I wondered about radiation but listening to commentators today they have said that’s unlikely.

BelleHathor · 22/06/2025 15:16

EasternStandard · 22/06/2025 14:42

Why do you want the damage to the nuclear capability to be minimal?

Not to the Nuclear capability, but to the potential Nuclear fallout. That would bring a humanitarian and ecological disaster not only to Iran but to surrounding countries too. I don’t want the deaths and illnesses that could result to occur.

It would also give Iran the right to hit Israeli and American Nuclear installations as well as end the taboo on the use of nukes meaning other Nuclear capable countries could also strike aka Russia in Ukraine.

mids2019 · 22/06/2025 15:42

Enriched Uranium is only 3 times a radioactive as normal Uranium so actually there is very limited fall out. The Uranium would be possibly spread over a small area over the bomb site so I would be wary of picking up dust and use a Geiger counter due to alpha emission. The Iranians obviously will exaggerate the radiation emissions from uranium radioisotope but at the end of the day this is not a fissile reaction.

MushMonster · 22/06/2025 15:49

So, why are nuclear weapons of such a huge significance and why mere 2% enriched uranium managed to be responsible for Chernobyl? It is in ONLY 5 times more radioactive than a rock you can pick up on a mine. And then a supposed 60% enriched will not have major effects?
It is not adding up in my mind.

EasternStandard · 22/06/2025 15:50

No one has said it’s an issue. It’s all being discussed by those with insight

mouthpipette · 22/06/2025 18:05

BelleHathor · 22/06/2025 13:48

Paws on Gas too. More importantly they want to "contain" China (who get 40%+ of it's oil from Iran). As they're unable to compete on a level playing field, disrupting China's supply line is their only option.

Are you sure ? I thought Iranian oil made up between 10 and 15 % of total Chinese imports., comprising 90% of Iran's output.

BelleHathor · 22/06/2025 20:29

mouthpipette · 22/06/2025 18:05

Are you sure ? I thought Iranian oil made up between 10 and 15 % of total Chinese imports., comprising 90% of Iran's output.

Edited

Apologies, I got it wrong, I was thinking about the Straits of Hormuz (which Iran can blockade) where:
Nearly 45% of China’s total oil imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow maritime chokepoint connecting the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea, which Iran has repeatedly threatened to close in response to Israeli military strikes.

Though interesting that China purchased 90% of Irans Oil output, that's a massive single point of failure!

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/china-faces-oil-supply-risk-if-israel-iran-conflict-escalates/3606285

China faces oil supply risk if Israel-Iran conflict escalates

Beijing imports 45% of its oil through Strait of Hormuz, which Iran threatens to block amid rising tensions - Anadolu Ajansı

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/china-faces-oil-supply-risk-if-israel-iran-conflict-escalates/3606285

mouthpipette · 22/06/2025 22:33

BelleHathor · 22/06/2025 20:29

Apologies, I got it wrong, I was thinking about the Straits of Hormuz (which Iran can blockade) where:
Nearly 45% of China’s total oil imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow maritime chokepoint connecting the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea, which Iran has repeatedly threatened to close in response to Israeli military strikes.

Though interesting that China purchased 90% of Irans Oil output, that's a massive single point of failure!

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/china-faces-oil-supply-risk-if-israel-iran-conflict-escalates/3606285

I remember reading about an agreement between China and Iran from about 2022 and part of that was development of Iranian oil fields by China. I think, somewhere within that was the arrangement whereby the fields were deemed to be Chinese soil and if attacked, China could respond. Whether or not those talks or agreements came to fruition, I don't know.

Chinese / Israel relationships are interesting. As are Israel / Russia. If nothing else, the Israelis are great plate spinners.

BelleHathor · 22/06/2025 22:55

mouthpipette · 22/06/2025 22:33

I remember reading about an agreement between China and Iran from about 2022 and part of that was development of Iranian oil fields by China. I think, somewhere within that was the arrangement whereby the fields were deemed to be Chinese soil and if attacked, China could respond. Whether or not those talks or agreements came to fruition, I don't know.

Chinese / Israel relationships are interesting. As are Israel / Russia. If nothing else, the Israelis are great plate spinners.

Thanks for that info, very interesting. I heard that China is getting a discount on the oil in exchange for capital investment.

Yes International Relations between countries boils down to "it's complicated". I was listening to a discussion yesterday where someone proposed that the reason Iran did not sign a more comprehensive security deal with Russia was because of the 1 million+ Israeli/Russians.

Though the meme about China is "do nothing, still win". Even when the Houthis were blockading Chinese and Russian ships were still allowed through!

MushMonster · 22/06/2025 23:05

EasternStandard · 22/06/2025 13:56

Statement from WH in response to question about wanting regime change.

Talk of material being moved being said to be unlikely. I thought main concern might be the effectiveness but sounds like that might not be the case. Little chance of radiation - now by another commentator.

Some posters might be rallying behind Iran, which is unusual.

Trump has posted in his Truth Social something about regime change, make Iran great again MIGA.
So now, maybe for the next few hours, will be about regime change. Then they may change it to nuclear weapons again. Then maybe religion.
It is in the Guardian live feed, but I did not manage to link it for some reason....

MushMonster · 22/06/2025 23:07

Here is an extract

The US has bombed Fordow and other sites.
BelleHathor · 22/06/2025 23:16

MushMonster · 22/06/2025 23:05

Trump has posted in his Truth Social something about regime change, make Iran great again MIGA.
So now, maybe for the next few hours, will be about regime change. Then they may change it to nuclear weapons again. Then maybe religion.
It is in the Guardian live feed, but I did not manage to link it for some reason....

I can't imagine what it might be like to be married to or work closely with him. He changes his mind like the wind, gaslighting extraordinaire!

mouthpipette · 22/06/2025 23:19

Yes International Relations between countries boils down to "it's complicated". I was listening to a discussion yesterday where someone proposed that the reason Iran did not sign a more comprehensive security deal with Russia was because of the 1 million+ Israeli/Russians. @BelleHathor

I recall that after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Israel did condemn it, but was one of the later ones to speak.
Russian is the third most widely spoken language after Hebrew and Arabic.

mouthpipette · 22/06/2025 23:21

You can find some lovely snaps of Putin and Netanyahu, they really do very happy together.

Hungrycaterpillarsmummy · 22/06/2025 23:31

Twiglets1 · 22/06/2025 08:18

Yes I do know there were more than 3 but Fordow was the main one.

I think you’re just swallowing Iranian propaganda if you believe the US hasn’t obliterated Fordor.

Looking like bravado .. I don’t think so. I think the bombing was highly successful from the US point of view.

Edited

Exactly. @BelleHathor head is in the sand with that comment!