Can anyone help me undestand who we want to win in Syria?

[MeJuly]

Obviously what I really want is for all the killing to stop. But I can't work out which of the sides would be better for us here in the UK if they won. Can anyone who understands what the hell is going on help?

But I can't work out which of the sides would be better for us here in the UK if they won.
Surely it's about what's best for Syrian civilians

One side is an islamist terror group who have now taken over Aleppo the other is Iran and Russian backed Bashir government, so neither suggest a positive peaceful future for Syrians.

There’s a good explainer here:

thecritic.co.uk/a-rebel-advance-in-syria-is-nothing-to-cheer/

It's an informed analysis, quite disgruntled sounding. I'm sure opinions will differ.
The mistake of people who think of themselves as liberal is to assume everyone is as full of love and charity as they like to think they are.
Bashar used nerve gas on his own people (as did Sadaam - WMD anyone?), he runs a sometimes brutal regime to keep a lid (ish) on dissension. The alternative will be a lot worse, especially for women and girls.
'The west' as ever is damned if they do and damned if they don't, and because it bothers a lot of 'westerners' that they should be perceived as the good guys that conscience becomes an exploitable weakness.

Neither. On the one hand you have the murderous, Russian-backed Assad, and on the other hand you have islamist extremists, who are as we speak running around committing grotesque atrocities while shouting about how great God is.

"Three important points for those who want to understand Syria:

1- Millions of Syrians despise Assad more than anything else because he has brutally oppressed, bombarded, gassed, imprisoned, tortured, besieged, starved, and displaced them. His crimes have left deep scars on countless lives.

2- Not everyone fighting Assad is a liberator or a force for good. The conflict is full with complexities and competing agendas.

3- Desperation has led many Syrians to choose what they see the "lesser evil." For some, this means hoping their area would fall under anyone but Assad, while others would take Assad over the radical militant groups. This stark reality shows how people are forced to prioritize survival above all else."
@IbrahimAlAssil

It's confusing, isn't it, when there's no way to blame Israel.

More reposts from Twitter :)

Was Israel not involved no?

@Lalaloveya NO

I was trying to avoid saying that myself!

The IDF said differently this week, but OK.

It's confusing why a poster is bringing Israel into a thread on Syria especially when posters are constantly giving out to posters for not focusing on conflicts elsewhere

I think the SDF is kinda backed by the west, mainly kurds, they are often attacked by the SNA and a turkish group who are mainly central asian, some uyghers (I think).

HTS’s leader is ex Al-Qaeda and the group are considered terrorist by the US go enforcement. However whats interesting is that they have been releasing statements saying they aren’t interested in fighting anyone but the assad regime (and everyone backing him I assume). Point being not to worry if you are christian, druze, kurd etc etc. There has been some co-operation between HTS and the SDF. A Christian Palestinian on twitter said that when Hamas took over Gaza it wasn’t as bad Christians had feared whilst of course acknowledging that Islamist groups can’t accept parity for minority groups.

I don’t know, it’s a mess, I am however consistently surprised by how everyone (I mean the UN, western governments) has been ignoring Erdogans ongoing bombing campaign against the kurds. He’s literally trying to wipe them out.

I do wonder if the leader of HTS will want all Iranians, turkish backed groups and russians completely out of Syria. There will be knock on effect for Russia as well, it was using Syrian ports for its navy.

He objected to ISIS on the basis that they demanded centralisation of control over regional forces whereas Al-Qaeda was more hands off. Theirs is the strongest individual group and he seems very focused on being anti foreign influence. Which having the place overrun with IRCG, Hezbollah, russians, afghans, pakistanis, tajiks and Uzbeks will probably do to you.

However they are still Islamists. Lets hope they keep their word about the safety of minorities.

Shhh, guess which country armed and medically treated militants from the terrorist group Al Nusra?
https://www.timesofisrael.com/yaalon-syrian-rebels-keeping-druze-safe-in-exchange-for-israeli-aid/

Also its a complete coincidence how this front was reactivated hours after the Lebanon ceasefire went into effect, after the IDF failing to eliminate Hezbollah on the battlefield.

The "rebels" though have told Israel not to worry (between releasing beheading videos).
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/syrian-rebel-officer-to-channel-12-offensive-against-assad-regime-will-stop-hezbollah-members-fleeing-to-syria/

There’s a lovely (Russian, ironically) expression - both are worse.

Read this earlier which is enlightening about Putin's involvement.

https://www.mena-researchcenter.org/why-russia-supports-bashar-al-assad-in-syria/

I can’t access the articles.

The first one is about Israel providing medical aid in exchange for protection of minorities? That doesn’t sound like it’s an awful decision to make given they can’t institute regime change but can do something to protect a vulnerable group.

Can’t see second one at all. What does it say?

Tbh I can see how Israel would have contributed by eroding IRCG and Hezbollah in Syria.

I wouldn’t call that a win for Hezbollah, most of their leadership is dead, tunnels have been collapsed and their weapons stockpiles have been massively reduced. Reminds me of that monty python sketch “the black knight”

Honestly Israel isn’t responsible for every shitshow in the middle east. It’s not like they are responsible for al the jihadis and Islamists running around everywhere.

Correct, Israel is not responsible for funding and training all the Jihadi groups running around the region, their chief protector though is another story.

I mean why would America back 21 out of 28 militant groups that fought in North Syria.

https://thegrayzone.com/2019/10/16/us-backed-crazy-militias-turkeys-invasion-syria/
Ironically destabilising all these countries in the region is of benefit to Israel.

In fact in 1996 there was a report "the Clean break" produced by a think tank recommending some of the things we've seen play out in the region
https://medium.com/dan-sanchez/clean-break-to-dirty-wars-d5ebc5fda9f9

As former Nixon and Reagan senior advisor Pat Buchanan put it:
“In the Perle-Feith-Wurmser strategy, Israel’s enemy remains Syria, but the road to Damascus runs through Baghdad.”

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/US_intervention_in_the_Syrian_civil_war

according to this it was patchy and lasted only 4 years.

The islamists were already there, they were all fighting ISIS at the time, including HTS who used to be the Al Nusra. The Taliban are still fighting Isis, Al-Qaeda is still fighting Isis.

Broadly I agree, we should stop handing money to Islamists, but at the time and initially the FSA said they were pluralistic and democratic and then dissolved into chaos.

I mean the USA isn’t actually funding islamists all over the middle east. Terror funds generally come from the proceeds of crime (and Iran and Turkey, who by the way are very much explicitly funding the people trying to kill the kurds in Syria). Except in Afghanistan where apparently Al-Qaeda have a stakes in gold mining.

It was called Operation Timber Sycamore and Trump's administration phased it out when he took office in 2017.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timber_Sycamore :
"One consequence of the program has been a flood of US weapons including assault rifles, mortars and rocket-propelled grenades into the Middle East's black market. Critics of the program within the Obama administration viewed it as ineffective and expensive, and raised concerns about seizure of weaponry by Islamist groups and about Timber Sycamore-backed rebels fighting alongside the Al-Qaeda-affiliated Al-Nusra Front and its allies.[9]"

He's back in January 2025 so perhaps the timing of this action was a case of now or never. Luckily so far it appears that the fighting has been limited to the Syrian Army vs the "rebels". The leader of HTS Al-Jalani has apparently already been killed.

USA isn’t actually funding islamists all over the middle east

Perhaps not directly but by indirect covert means they have a long history of doing so as a means to foment discontent and enact regime change. Unfortunately innocent local civilians are usually the victims:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Contra_affair

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Cyclone#:~:text=The%20second%20six%2Dyear%20assistance,support%20under%20the%20Reagan%20Doctrine.

According to the Putin loving antisemite Max Blumenthal.

Honestly Israel isn’t responsible for every shitshow in the middle east. It’s not like they are responsible for al the jihadis and Islamists running around everywhere.

The racism of low expectations towards Arabs, with the healthy dollop of Jews-controlling-everything paranoid antisemitism.
The usual really.