Can anyone help me undestand who we want to win in Syria?

[MeJuly]

Obviously what I really want is for all the killing to stop. But I can't work out which of the sides would be better for us here in the UK if they won. Can anyone who understands what the hell is going on help?

I didn't mean to derail this thread, apologies. Also, as stated above. It's incredibly vulgar to be playing top trumps with statistics regarding the deaths of children. It's not what I intended. Again apologies.
My point, and I stand by it. Is there are a number of horrific governing regimes around the world and I include a number of western and western affiliated governments within that statement. Turkey, Israel and the wider West are funding and supplying the insurgency in Syria for their own wider geopolitical aims. They couldn't care less about the people of Syria and have no moral superiority over the Assad government

You say you didn't mean to derail this thread, but you did.

You say that it's incredibly vulgar to be playing top trumps with statistics, but you did it anyway.

The thread was and is about Syria, but as always, some cannot allow that and so Gaza.

Hundreds of thousands of people were killed and continue to be killed by Assads supporters.

Your original point was crass and inappropriate. People commented on it and it was suggested by others it should be called out. You still stand by it.

My thoughts to the innocent people of Syria.

This was your point

'Golden407 · 03/12/2024 03:58
I think Assad struggles to measure up to the crimes of the Israeli administration, so having the Israelis act as arbiters of justice isn't reassuring'

Struggles to measure up. So he tries hard, but just isn't quite as bad. Just wow. But there you go. Not quite as you reframed it, once called out.

For clarity, it's people, this is the Syria deaths on the Syria thread.

'Estimates of the total number of deaths in the Syrian Civil War, by various war monitors, range between 580,000 as of May 2021,[1] and approximately 617,910 as of March 2024.[2] In late September 2021, the United Nations stated it had documented the deaths of at least 350,209 "identified individuals" in the conflict between March 2011 and March 2021, but cautioned the figure was "certainly an under-count" that specified only a "minimum verifiable number".[3][4][5]'

Is Russia pulling away.

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2024/12/first-sign-russian-navy-evacuating-naval-vessels-from-tartus-syria/

Syria where Assad is vile and Hezbollah back some of the uprising. People are caught between 2 awful outcomes

Remember it's the fog of war right now, with (extremely well funded) assets on both sides spreading a truck load of propaganda. It would be fascinating if there weren't innocent civilians caught in the middle.

Looking at that site Navalnews it appears to be amateurs who report Open source information with their own analysis likely with little to no contact with military intelligence.
https://www.navalnews.com/about-us/
Sort of a long form Twitter OSINT account.

Very little "truth" around right now.

From the Pro HTS Rebel Side:
*Assad has so far fallen 500 times today and he just about to resign. Cue many cries of Homs then Damascus falling and pictures of "liberation" by the "rebels" (previously associated with Al Qaeda and ISIS).
*Russia and Iran have abandoned Syria and done a deal with Turkey and the West to leave Syria in exchange for sanctions relief.
*There was even a "lovely" article a UK paper about how a Jalani administration in Syria would be "inclusive".

From the Pro Assad Side:
The battlefield was chaotic, earlier today there were reports of the Syrian Arab Army retreating from Hama.

However, HTS appear to have stretched themselves too far forward in response to the SAA "abandoning" Hama.
That retreat by the SAA appears to have been a feint/fake, because the Russian airforce just bombed the Rastan bridge between Hama and Homs cutting the HTS forces in half, with the SAA following on the ground killing many HTS rebels.

We won't know more until tomorrow. Poor poor civilians caught up in this mess.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cwy8xzxe0w7t

BBC live page of today's events in Syria.

Is there any room whatsoever for optimism here? I wouldn’t shed any tears for Assad if and when he fell, the worry of course is who will replace him. Can it be anything else than a coercive Islamist regime that will result in persecution of religious minorities and a sharp loss of women’s rights?

Which predominantly Islamic countries treat their people better? There are a number of countries with major problems with either government or leadership eg Syria, Iran or massive terrorism eg Yeman, Lebanon. Why is that?

I would say Jordan, Morocco ( both are kingdoms, maybe that provides some stability), also the gulf states ( basically they stuff the population’s mouths with gold), also Tunisia. But Syria is far from being like those countries. It’s been under a very repressive regime for 2 generations.

Of Assad does not fall in the next couple of weeks I predict another civil war of it is not happening already. The government will use all its remaining military strength including air power to hit away at rebel positions presumably now embedded in captured cities (Hamas and Hezbollah aren't the only ones that can use this trick).

Of course everyone does worry about the human rights implication of a rebel take over and a refugee crisis both in the region and ultimately across Europe but the media (or at least parts of it) don't talk about this to a great extent.

Why do you think you need to take one of these sides?

Why not take the side of the ordinary people who are suffering under both?

What I’ve learned this past year, is that certain countries treat parts of the Middle East like a strategy game, in which the human rights of individuals aren’t given as much weight as other objectives. It isn’t about democracy and it isn’t about doing the right thing, it’s about power.

@Begsthequestion

"Why not take the side of the ordinary people who are suffering under both"

Or why not take the side of the party / group that in your opinion will cause the least suffering to ordinary people.

In a normal world it would be choosing the party / group that creates the most benefit to ordinary people, unfortunately in Syria it is choosing the lesser of two evils on who causes the least harm.

That's always the case with geo politics and its incredibly naive to think otherwise. It also doesn't have to be the 'wrong thing' to do and is why stability is sometimes prioritised over 'morality' because chaos can lead to a host of horrific outcomes - which would not be moral. Politicians & miltary commanders have to take strategic decisions all the time, basically lose a battle to win the war. That can mean that certain sacrifices can lead to better democratic outcomes for more people etc. Its called pragmatism & it can align with morality, even if there is always going to be tension, given the imperfect situations that we're usually dealing with and the large numbers of immoral actors involved. Its an approach that's been around since the beginning of time.

Unless Putin shows up for Bashar al Assad it looks like it could be over for his family business, the rebels look set to capture his stronghold of Homs and terrified Alawites are fleeing. I imagine many will head to Iran.

2000 Syrian soldiers have sought 'refuge' in Iraq according to the Guardian.

I think you've misunderstood but hey ho!

It’s looking worse and worse for Assad. Looks like the cavalry isn’t coming for him, either from Russia or from Iran, unless it’s all a big game of bluff. My guess is he’s left the country.

Deliberately so!

But it’s precisely why I use the term “Islamic extremist”

If I have understood you, I think that for what you are meaning the word is “Islamist”.

AI overview:
Islam is a religion, while Islamism is a political ideology that seeks to derive legitimacy from Islam:

I think the AI can be trusted here as I recall another poster explaining the difference which I never knew before.

Well it's game over and this shows the extent Assad was reliant on Hezbollah and Russia for his rule.

The military victory of Israel over Hezbollah is apparent as Hezbollah is a shell of its previous self and didn't have the capacity to influence the uprising in Syria. Similarly Russia has invested all its resourced into Ukraine.

I am intrigued into how the West didn't quite see this coming and it is a fairly worrying time given the nature of HTS as Islamist extremism is not something we want to see more of given the current situation in the middle east. Indeed there is the possibility of Syria becoming a failed state of other countries are slow to recognise any new government.

The Alawites have apparently been told they will be safe but many have fled. Assad was an evil dictator so I don't think many will be sorry to see the back of him. There's huge celebrations over Syria right now.