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Conflict in the Middle East

Is Israel on its way to being a "Failed State?"

345 replies

TooBigForMyBoots · 03/04/2024 01:01

Netanyahu is destroying Gaza.

The IDF is committing war crimes.
Netanyahu's government has angered, pissed off and disappointed Israeli citizens.
They have disappointed, pissed off and angered Israel's allies.
They are pissing off neighbour states.
The Israeli government and the IDF have created a broken nation of traumatised people.

Right next door.

I fear that Israel will become a failed state.Sad

OP posts:
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LemonyTicket · 04/04/2024 19:04

Scirocco · 04/04/2024 15:44

A bit off topic, but does anyone know when the last Egyptian royalty were referred to as pharaohs?

What are you implying here? Are you also going in with the calling me a liar?

LemonyTicket · 04/04/2024 19:05

MCOut · 04/04/2024 15:58

Please. B I will never apologise for when I think that is the case, and A I never said they were lying, I said they conveniently left out that they are also white. It’s a pet peeve of mine people conveniently rolling out brown as and when they’re called out.

How do you know what colour I am? I don't think I have ever mentioned it.

mids2019 · 04/04/2024 19:08

is Israel heading to being a failed state as most people would recognise the term. No.

(Unless we put the US and UK in that bracket)

Is Israel involved in a conflict where there is a large civilian death toll. Yes.

Are people concerned about aid to civilians in Gaza. Yes.

Will Israel possibly get new leadership as democracy. Yes.

Does Israel have a bright future? On the whole yes. There are plenty of economic ties to the global community as well as political and military support.

There is disagreement between the US and Israel about this war but the US despite its frustration will never allow the destruction of the state through lack of support.

Sussurations · 04/04/2024 19:36

AnnieSnap · 04/04/2024 14:45

Iran, North Korea, Russia, Saudi Arabia. The criteria is that they oppress and kill people without compunction. In Israel’s case, they go further and are bombing and starving an other nation to death.

Incisive geopolitical insight!

TooBigForMyBoots · 04/04/2024 20:14

Do you think Israel could survive if the USA stop supporting it @mids2019?

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AnnieSnap · 04/04/2024 20:42

LemonyTicket · 04/04/2024 14:57

This is interesting AnnieSnap.

Do Iran, North Korea, Russia, Saudi Arabia "oppress and kill people without compunction" that they are in active conflict with - or do they do it to their own actual citizens whilst not in an active conflict?

So, for example, are all countries at war a Pariah state? Or just Israel?

Just Israel and Russia. Israel isn’t at war, it is slaughtering innocent people due to terrorists attacking them from their country. Did the UK bomb the hell out of Ireland due to the attacks from the IRA? No, of course not!

LemonyTicket · 04/04/2024 20:49

TooBigForMyBoots · 04/04/2024 20:14

Do you think Israel could survive if the USA stop supporting it @mids2019?

My take:

Israel survives very well on it's own, it has a very robust economy. What it can't cope with is the cost of wars - generally wars it does not start but has no choice but to fight.

Beyond that, the cost of daily defence is extremely high. It probably could not sustain the astronomical cost of maintaining it's iron dome. Over the course of a bad week, the anti-missile defence system might cost something like $100m a month just to stop the constant fire at it hitting it's cities.

So without the ability to do that, it would be left with a choice of either letting it's people be killed or a full blown attack. It would probably need to wipe out Palestine for it's survival. Which I am sure you will say it wants to do or is already doing, but if it wanted to do that it already would have. It has had the means, motive and opportunity for decades.

Iran and other unpleasant players would likely smell blood and join in the attacks on Israel more openly, as would Hezbollah, and perhaps other places. There would be a full scale war, likely horrific bloodshed, and like Britain and the US would be involved as they understand how essential it is for global security to prevent Iran's foothold.

It would be a complete disaster.

That's my opinion only, but I'd imagine the US and UK have a similar take otherwise they would not keep supporting Israel to defend itself.

LemonyTicket · 04/04/2024 20:50

AnnieSnap · 04/04/2024 20:42

Just Israel and Russia. Israel isn’t at war, it is slaughtering innocent people due to terrorists attacking them from their country. Did the UK bomb the hell out of Ireland due to the attacks from the IRA? No, of course not!

Israel is at war. It has a name and everything!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93Hamas_war

Israel–Hamas war - Wikipedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93Hamas_war

mids2019 · 04/04/2024 21:13

@LemonyTicket

yes. All major news outlets report this is a war. A conflict between Israel and Hamas.

mids2019 · 04/04/2024 21:15

@TooBigForMyBoots

good question how many nuclear weapons does Israel have! I guess if they didn't have conventional weapons they could always rely on those?

Scirocco · 04/04/2024 21:19

mids2019 · 04/04/2024 21:15

@TooBigForMyBoots

good question how many nuclear weapons does Israel have! I guess if they didn't have conventional weapons they could always rely on those?

Oh yay, nuclear war. What a wonderful back-up plan to consider so casually. 🤦🏻‍♀️

mids2019 · 04/04/2024 21:19

@TooBigForMyBoots

the previous answer was sarcasm but does indicate how seriously Israel takes its existence as a state. The US in reality would never leave Israel defenceless and there has been absolutely no suggestion of that.

mids2019 · 04/04/2024 21:21

Well Israel does have nuclear weapons for its defence. I guess Kirkwood be large states that it is worried about. Anyway there is little information on there nuclear capabaility.

MCOut · 04/04/2024 21:22

LemonyTicket · 04/04/2024 19:05

How do you know what colour I am? I don't think I have ever mentioned it.

You did many times. Iraqi and Spanish heritage but if you’re now saying that’s incorrect then Talk guidelines stipulate I should believe you. Your narrative remains distasteful. Very Israel v the uncivilised others.

quantumbutterfly · 04/04/2024 21:34

MCOut · 04/04/2024 21:22

You did many times. Iraqi and Spanish heritage but if you’re now saying that’s incorrect then Talk guidelines stipulate I should believe you. Your narrative remains distasteful. Very Israel v the uncivilised others.

This does not give a clue to skin tone, is there some sort of Dulux chart you're consulting?

LemonyTicket · 04/04/2024 21:36

MCOut · 04/04/2024 21:22

You did many times. Iraqi and Spanish heritage but if you’re now saying that’s incorrect then Talk guidelines stipulate I should believe you. Your narrative remains distasteful. Very Israel v the uncivilised others.

I do not have Spanish Heritage. I have four Grandparents who were Sicilian, Iraqi, Egyptian and Lebanese. All of which are nationalities where people come in a wide range of skin tones. I have never mentioned what colour my skin is as far as I am aware.

LemonyTicket · 04/04/2024 21:36

quantumbutterfly · 04/04/2024 21:34

This does not give a clue to skin tone, is there some sort of Dulux chart you're consulting?

Thank you, quite. I was wondering if they had a paint chart going!

quantumbutterfly · 04/04/2024 21:45

Probably farrow and ball, this is Mumsnet.

mids2019 · 04/04/2024 22:06

Right so Israel is not going to become a 'failed state' not is is it fragile.

We have a situation where I believe Benjamin Netanayahu is under significant political pressure internally (Israel is a democracy) and I think it is legitimate to speculate there may be an early election. I think there are questions Israelis are asking about how October 7th was allowed to happen and the current hostage situation (have they been foegotten?).

It is likely we will see a recalibrarion of the Israeli response to the October 7th attacks due to international pressure. It is likely Israel will still prosecute the war though there may be changes in tactics. I think Israel will have to be more transparent about its war aims and how the current military strategy is meant to achieve these aims.

There is a lot of talk about international law but international law is very much a complex beast and is actually reliant on sovereign nations recognising its existence. We await to see what advice individual states are given about the law by their lawyers. I am kind of guessing Hamas did not consult any of their lawyers before ordering the October 7th attacks and I am again kind of guessing holding and sexually assaulting hostages might break some kind of international law but who knows I am not a lawyer)

Israel long term will be safe, hopefully prosperous state that will be a home to the Jewsish people as well as others. There is no prospect of the international community viewing it as failed state such as Afghanistan. Israel will continue to be a liberal democracy surrounded by states wishing it's failure but I am sorry bit won't fail.

AnnieSnap · 04/04/2024 22:13

LemonyTicket · 04/04/2024 20:50

Israel is at war. It has a name and everything!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93Hamas_war

Oh, well if Wikipedia calls it that . . . 🙄

TooBigForMyBoots · 04/04/2024 22:13

mids2019 · 04/04/2024 21:19

@TooBigForMyBoots

the previous answer was sarcasm but does indicate how seriously Israel takes its existence as a state. The US in reality would never leave Israel defenceless and there has been absolutely no suggestion of that.

As you said, Israel won't be defenceless, it has nuclear weapons. My question was could Israel survive without USA support.

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mids2019 · 04/04/2024 22:14

There are huge difficulties in managing weapon supply to Israel as it is impossible to know if a bomb suppose to Israel is being used in Gaza or a Hezbollah outfit in Lebanon. I think the UK has no problem with weaponry being used against terrorist groups (we have taken action against Houthis) so I suspect the UK and US will be conflicted about any reduction of arms to Israel. It is in both the UK and US interests to have an armed Israel as they support International efforts against terrorism for one thing.

Overall if Israel are reliant on weapons for existence the UK, US etc. will supply them

mids2019 · 04/04/2024 22:16

@AnnieSnap

have a quick look at the BBC news website. They have an Israel Gaza war tab. (Really good analysis by Jeremy Bowen as well)

quantumbutterfly · 04/04/2024 22:17

mids2019 · 04/04/2024 22:06

Right so Israel is not going to become a 'failed state' not is is it fragile.

We have a situation where I believe Benjamin Netanayahu is under significant political pressure internally (Israel is a democracy) and I think it is legitimate to speculate there may be an early election. I think there are questions Israelis are asking about how October 7th was allowed to happen and the current hostage situation (have they been foegotten?).

It is likely we will see a recalibrarion of the Israeli response to the October 7th attacks due to international pressure. It is likely Israel will still prosecute the war though there may be changes in tactics. I think Israel will have to be more transparent about its war aims and how the current military strategy is meant to achieve these aims.

There is a lot of talk about international law but international law is very much a complex beast and is actually reliant on sovereign nations recognising its existence. We await to see what advice individual states are given about the law by their lawyers. I am kind of guessing Hamas did not consult any of their lawyers before ordering the October 7th attacks and I am again kind of guessing holding and sexually assaulting hostages might break some kind of international law but who knows I am not a lawyer)

Israel long term will be safe, hopefully prosperous state that will be a home to the Jewsish people as well as others. There is no prospect of the international community viewing it as failed state such as Afghanistan. Israel will continue to be a liberal democracy surrounded by states wishing it's failure but I am sorry bit won't fail.

This

LemonyTicket · 04/04/2024 22:17

mids2019 · 04/04/2024 22:16

@AnnieSnap

have a quick look at the BBC news website. They have an Israel Gaza war tab. (Really good analysis by Jeremy Bowen as well)

Thanks for making me laugh!