Conflict Israel and other nearby countries

[EasterIssland]

Israel is at war with Gaza. However , this has dragged other countries in the area as well.
weve heard about the problems in West Bank (there is a thread) but also Lebanon where civilians have been killed and journalists have been targeted and killed

they’ve also attacked several airports in Siria.

ive read in the past there was a conflict as well with Yemen and read now this” Yemen's Houthis warn they will target all ships headed to Israel”

it doesn’t sound that post this war living in Israel is going to be safer than before

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/yemens-houthis-say-they-will-target-ships-red-sea-en-route-israel-2023-12-09/

The end result is that Israel controls the water to Jordan and Palestine. Which, given that the river runs through the whole region, should not be the case.

Nothing then....

I can't say I'm surprised you've zero comment on the clearly stated aim of the Arab League's diversion of water plan being "the ultimate practical means for the final liquidation of Israel" via the armies of multiple Arab States against the singular Jewish State not only in the Middle East but the world. 🤷‍♂️

But no, the actual end result is that Jordan supplies Israel with solar energy and Israel supplies Jordan with water.

https://www.reuters.com/business/cop/israel-jordan-move-forward-with-water-for-energy-deal-2022-11-08/

"The signing on Tuesday, the ministry said, "expresses the countries' shared desire to deal with the climate crisis through cross-border cooperation."

The Middle East is highly vulnerable to climate change and this will be the first such cooperation between Israel and Jordan."

The very definition of quid pro quo which is Latin for something for something.* *

I think Jordan is changing its mind on that. They’re not happy to have Israel controlling their water supply and even less so now.

.

Still
Nothing....

I'd expect that to go ahead post-conflict, especially as climate change really kicks in further down the line.

Since 1979, the direction of travel is clear with several Arab States one by one - normalisation of relations with Israel AND reluctance to engage in military conflict with them.

You can see part of the motivation from Hamas to attack Israel on 7th October 2023 there. The more Arab States that normalise relations with Israel, the more isolated Hamas becomes in the region.

And that's been the track record for a long time now. Further environmental issues will absolutely focus the minds of States like Jordan to cooperate with Israel as there won't be much option.

Amusing to observe you really dig in to your highly selective views here. In so doing, you're avoiding @stomachamaleon's point yet the links you're using is revealing. My last two was from United Nations University and Reuters.

The war appears to have disrupted the normalisation process between Israel and Arab nations. I'm pleased to see the UAE using what leverage it has on Israel.

www.axios.com/world/israel

The latest round of conflict isn't the first in the region but again the direction of travel still leads towards a normalisation of relations between Israel and Arab States.

Essentially, rinse and repeat down the decades. No reason why it won't be the same in future as neither Israel nor Arab States are going anywhere.

Does anyone know how Europe will be affected if there is escalation including Iran? I heard it will cause unprecedented energy inflation, amongst other things. Does anyone know more? I find it worrying.

Saudi Arabia ambassador in UK was on radio 4 this morning. He said that creation of a Palestinian state - involving Palestinians in negotiations - will be fundamental to normalisation of Saudis Arabia’s relationship with Israel.

Iraq appears to have been requesting US to remove their air bases since 2020- but have asked again. Iraq has also called for a ceasefire in Gaza as it fears it is destabilising the region, and is concerned that the US air bases increases the chances of it being dragged into a war. Apparently- on X- US military personnel are being barred re-entry to Iraq.

“Sudani said he was seeking the coalition's exit because Iraq could now defend itself from terrorism and should exert full sovereignty over its territory - thereby avoiding giving anyone an excuse to draw Iraq into regional conflict.”

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iraq-seeks-quick-exit-us-forces-no-deadline-set-pm-says-2024-01-10/

Yes energy prices could potentially soar again, well that’s one of my worries. We have been offered to fix our tariff with Octopus, we weren’t going to because prices were predicted to go down in spring, but we might go for it now.

Yes, Polka83 , there have been several rockets fired towards US bases, it's extremely risky as if more US soldiers are killed then there will be a call for escalation/intervention. Instead of respecting Iraqi sovereignty the US is deploying a further 1500 soldiers.
https://www.cbsnews.com/philadelphia/news/new-jersey-soldiers-prepare-for-deployment-syria-iraq/
And this happened yesterday: https://twitter.com/CENTCOM/status/1748831942299246640

If a regional war breaks out then all imported goods and materials will increase in price because of the affects on international shipping. Slower transportation times could also lead to supply chain issues but I believe shipping companies invested in extra capacity during COVID so we may have a buffer against that for a while.

BelleHathor

Deploying additional troops cannot be seen as anything other than provocation and escalation and yet MSM is misleading the public into thinking that it's Iran itching to start a war. The gaslighting is astounding.

Protesters in Cyprus have been demanding that the British military pack up and leave too, no doubt worried that they could become a target in a regional war. The British government have withdrawn the aircraft carrier they deployed to the region (Persian Gulf, I think) to protect that asset but have no compunction about putting Cyprus in the firing line.

@FOJN @MissyB1 Thank you for your thoughts. I think fixing may be a good idea. The other issue is a refugee crisis. I have been concerned about this regarding Gaza, but if it includes other countries in the ME I think it may be unprecedented. I fear it will be a human tragedy, since I can imagine Europe taking stronger measures against a flood of desperate people, feeling overwhelmed and sympathy running dry. I do not feel enough is being done to calm, to stabilise and keep people safe where they are. I'm not following the news as much, so perhaps I am stating the obvious.

There is suggestion that Israel wants US to become involved in its conflict against Hezbollah- which would make sense? It’s northern borders are being significantly threatened.
My link above suggests Hezbollah wants US out Iraq.
”The chief of Lebanon's Hezbollah group, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, said in a speech on Friday that U.S. strikes in Iraq should pave the way for the final withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq, which would also make their presence in northeastern Syria untenable.”

There are then also US interests in maintaining their air bases in ME.

This is an article from May last year which I think is interesting.

theintercept.com/2023/05/24/cia-israel-iran-strike-leaked-documents/

There are reports of idf planes flying over Lebanon today

Yemen and the houthis.
I can recommend a brilliant Instagram page of an activist of anyone is interested.

Don’t think the presenter is feeling confortable
https://twitter.com/Sprinter99800/status/1748414401281954207

US is going to begin talks with Iraq about withdrawal of troops from Iraq.

Got a source? This has long been a point of contention over there since the US just, y'know, stayed despite being asked repeatedly to pull out. They're also looking at bugging out of Syria.

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/01/24/politics/us-military-iraq-talks-future/index.html