Conflict Israel and other nearby countries

[EasterIssland]

Israel is at war with Gaza. However , this has dragged other countries in the area as well.
weve heard about the problems in West Bank (there is a thread) but also Lebanon where civilians have been killed and journalists have been targeted and killed

they’ve also attacked several airports in Siria.

ive read in the past there was a conflict as well with Yemen and read now this” Yemen's Houthis warn they will target all ships headed to Israel”

it doesn’t sound that post this war living in Israel is going to be safer than before

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/yemens-houthis-say-they-will-target-ships-red-sea-en-route-israel-2023-12-09/

todays air strike has made me think if more Hamas bosses are in Qatar …. Would Israel kill then in Qatar -land ? Or they’re only trying if in Lebanon as whilst they know it’ll being consequences they can handle them ?

I don't think Israel would strike within Qatar. They're too key a US ally, given the military base there.

Haniyah was in Cairo last week and every intelligence agency knew that. I think it's frowned upon if the country has peace treaties with the country they are 'guests' in.

Qatar has warned Hamas they can't keep them safe and to go. And loud enough it got to the media so make of that what you will.

Or Egypt?
mainly asking because Israel has decided to attack on Lebanon

1. They know there will be consequences that they’ll be able to handle

1. They don’t attack other countries (Qatar - Egypt) cuz they’ve good relations / they won’t get any consequences or there would be consequences that could be too dangerous for Israel?

or I’m making nonsense (which is possible as well) just asking from a point of why have they attacked in Lebanon and whether there is a risk of this happening in any other nearby countries where Hamas members are

@EasterIssland

A bit random but did you at any point spell your username with a lower case e as the first later

Risk wise bombing or carrying out an attack on terrorist fighters in Lebanon or Syria is fairly low political and retaliation from most the Arab states. Some of more peaceful states have themselves had to carry out attacks/bombing on both Syria and Lebanon at different time to stop their own states being targets etc

The only risk of attacking Hamas offices or Hezbollah inside Lebanon is Hezbollah itself. They are strong weapons wise but Israel isn't planning to do a ground invasion,I think. So they should be OK if it is just missiles or drones. The only state that could join in really is Iran and I think they what to cause chaos with shipping and inside Israel, as well as international divide. They don't look at all like they plan to actually get involved in a full out war. They have however sent a war ship to near Lebanon. So may well help stop supply ships getting through that area of sea

If Israel was to do the same in Qatar they know they would not get away with it. Definitely not politically with the other Arab states. It would have the potential to cause the currently peaceful states to join together against Israel. So yes that would be is dangerous and start a conflict Israel could easily lose. Israel knows this so is very unlikely to target more than Lebanon or Syria to hit terrorist locations

Currently Qatar seems to be trying to push Hamas leaders out of there country. This is not for fear of an Israel attI believe. It seems to be them actually trying to make this current conflict come to an end. If Hamas leaders only have less safe places to flee they are more likely to agree the terms of a negotiation. Qatar is very keen make this happen and has voiced that Hamas are not great at playing ball on this (Israel are not either). Hamas leaders do have other countries that are fairly safe for them go but non offer both comfortable lifestyle and almost safety from random snipers that Qatar does.

Thanks for the explanation @Trulywonderful it does makes sense what you explain and it was more or less one of my described options.

I guess israel / any nearby governments countries they’d prefer not to start a big war in the zone as at the end they’ll have casualties from their citizens as well as people not happy to be dragged to a war

Yes and the economy's of all the surrounding states and Israel would suffer greatly. No tourism which a lot really do need and business in general would be difficult. Therefore less income and more unemployment. This can cause civil unrest and wreck a country for many years. Most leaders don't want this to happen to their own states and it would likely destroy their leadship if it did.

It seems to be very unreported, but Hezbollah are firing up north practically daily, including anti tank missiles. If the villages and towns hadn't been evacuated, there would be high civilian losses. Half of Kibbutz Manara has been destroyed. The North has been under regular attack since the start. Yesterday for example they had sirens at 15.25, 15.36, 15.38, and 17.57.

I could be wrong, but I haven't see the UN condemning Hezbollah, or seeming particularly interested. The whole situation is insane to me. It's hard for me to worry about a retaliation, because they have already been attacking, and I know they can step things up and they have way more firepower, but given no-one in the UN or anywhere else seems bothered about them firing at us up north, genuinely what is to stop them from stepping up anyway, if they see no-one (outside Israel) is stepping in to stop them? *

*This is just my personal feeling about it all

This assassination is not something that just happened nor was Isreal able to go ahead without some help from inside of Lebanon, its clear to those who follow the situation there closely who is behind it .

i don’t think many realise how Vulnerable Lebanon is at the moment , they don’t have a president , PM Najeeb makati is relatively weak , the whole government is useless , and the last thing they want is another war , they’ve been through it in the 70s and 80s . A terrible civil war they are still reeling from .

@EllaDisenchanted that is terrible and I'm sorry for what you are going through right now. You are right it is very under reported. I don't know much about Hezbollah or Lebanon but I do find it all very worrying.
Just a thought that can the US not step in and give an ultimatum or would that make it worse?
I don't know i just really really want this whole war to end
The UN not condemning Hezbollah is disgraceful

@Parkingt111 i am not sure. I think there’s been ongoing efforts to solve diplomatically. I just don’t get the UN in all of this. This would be the best place in my opinion for them to show that they can be a real force for peace. If they can follow through with hezbollah wouldn’t that demonstrate they could be part of the solution down south ? By continuing to ignore hezbollahs violation of resolution 1701 as they have for years it just shows how unreliable they are. It’s all very well if they get people to agree and sign resolutions, but they’re worthless if they aren’t then enforced.
again this is my personal thoughts
also the impression I get is Hezbollah and Lebanon are very separate and Israel has no beef with Lebanon.
the worry with Hezbollah is that if Hamas can commit oct 7th, then Hezbollah is capable of far worse.

Yes it doesn't seem like the PM of Lebanon wants to go to war with Israel either and I read he has asked Hezbollah not to retaliate but it doesn't seem he has much sway in the matter.

@queenofarles sorry if I am being dense but do you mean America?

@EllaDisenchanted as someone with family in Israel I wholeheartedly support and understand what you are saying.

I believe some spies were arrested in Lebanon yesterday so def there is people reporting back to Israel

Reports of a terrorist attack in Tehran at a ceremony to commemorate the assassination of Qasem Soleimani. 100 people are estimated to have been killed. Immediate suspicion has fallen on Israel but the report gives no information to substantiate that claim.

There are multiple actors who may think they would benefit from an escalation with Iran so I don't think it's easy to determine who is responsible.

Think unlikely to be Israel, they really don’t want an escalation with Iran. Reports I am seeing is Iranian resistance groups.

A little bit more info from Aljazeera.

www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2024/1/3/iran-blasts-live-deadly-explosions-target-soleimani-killing-anniversary

It's terrible, mostly civilians killed. Very symbolic as today is the anniversary of Soleimenis death.

They were killed paying their respects, with a 2nd explosion 20 minutes after the 1st which harmed rescuers.

Nasrallah from Hezbollah has just finished his speech and vowed revenge for the assassination yesterday in Beirut. Another speech due on Friday.

Whichever idiots we have in charge in the West need to restrain whichever actors that are trying to set the region on fire.

@BelleHathor at this moment in time it seems unlikely that was Israel. Surely under the circumstances the 'resistance' is Iran would be given more empathy? In which case why would the west be able to 'restrain' them?

@stomachamaleon It really doesn't matter who is responsible. It's about who people think is responsible.

There are protests in Iran right now shouting "Death to America, Death to Israel". Even if it is not a western aligned entity and instead an opportunistic attack by unknown parties, "the West" will be blamed.
https://x.com/mrbarnicoat/status/1742576919185367518?s=20

Urp, they will just blame the west or Israel regardless.

And when the response is bombing US bases or oilfields in the region? Or perhaps start assassinating Western agents in other countries ( as that's allowed now). There will have to be a response, which could lead to a regional conflict.

Bloodthirsty. Blame the west even if not. Support terrorists in the M E cause mayhem. Madmen intent on their radical beliefs don't give a flying monies about children getting killed

If it's not domestic terrorists then it's likely some non Iranian actor hoping to provoke them to get directly involved in the Israel Gaza war.

The US has wanted a war with Iran for years or rather Israel has been encouraging them to start a war with Iran for years. Could be CIA, it wouldn't be their first rodeo interfering in Iranian affairs.

I think Israel is too obvious and the timing is not in their favour but they haven't been subtle or considered in the Gaza war so who knows.

Someone from the Iranian opposition was encouraging Israel to attack Iran to help them overthrow the government.

https://www.iranintl.com/en/202401037373

It's interesting that if you plant two bombs and kill a hundred people in Iran you are Iranian resistance fighters rather than terrorists.