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AIBU to think migrant sex crime data should be published? And to wonder why Labour are blocking the release of that data?

288 replies

Fabiansrule · Today 16:25

Labour Blocks Release of Migrant Crime Data

'Victims of serious crimes and their families have joined forces to demand that the Labour government publish detailed data on offences committed by foreign nationals, accusing ministers of withholding information that is “clearly and legitimately in the public interest”.

Among the signatories are victims of high-profile sexual offences and families of murder victims. One signatory is a 14-year-old victim of a sexual assault in Epping allegedly committed by an illegal immigrant, in the same Essex town where asylum seekers were housed at the controversial Bell Hotel.
Fiona Goddard, a survivor of rape-gang grooming who has campaigned publicly about her experiences, has also signed the letter.

Eight relatives of Rhiannon Whyte, a hotel worker murdered by a Sudanese national, are also among those backing the demand.'

https://europeanconservative.com/articles/news-corner/labour-blocks-release-of-migrant-crime-data/

Labour Blocks Release of Migrant Crime Data

The British government voted down an opposition proposal for transparency on migrant offences, sparking Conservative Party criticism.

https://europeanconservative.com/articles/news-corner/labour-blocks-release-of-migrant-crime-data/

OP posts:
TheOriginalEmu · Today 22:46

Fabiansrule · Today 16:37

Really? What about the women and children at higher risk?

that assumes that they are at higher risk. which you don’t know. because we don’t collect that data. do you not see that what you are presenting as fact is not a proven fact?
You think immigrants commit more of this kind of crime so you want statistics to say that. but without any such statistic you cannot claim that they do or that anyone is at higher risk.

Also, what do you count as migrants? are the children of migrants british? if a person has citizenship but wasn’t born here are they a migrant? It’s not a simple thing and there is no basis for your opinion.

EasternStandard · Today 22:47

ThatBreezyScroller · Today 22:45

What do you mean change the system?

In what way can we stop women and children being attacked by men?

The system that doesn’t vet at all. You do know the background of those attacks, or do you just think it’s social media algorithms and haven’t happened?

IsEveryUserNameBloodyTaken · Today 22:47

ThatBreezyScroller · Today 22:45

What do you mean change the system?

In what way can we stop women and children being attacked by men?

Well it would help if we don’t add to the problem wouldn’t it.
But you don’t won’t that do you.
You just want to bleat on about men already here.

NullaEffugium · Today 22:47

Fabiansrule · Today 16:40

Incorrect. The data is collected. Labour are currently spending tax payers money in court stopping it being published.

No it’s not, the data collected is ethnicity, which is not a proxy for nationality or whether the person has ever migrated anywhere.

Winter2020 · Today 22:47

Tryagain26 · Today 16:41

Why do you need to know?
The only reason I can think of that anyone would want it published is to stir up trouble. And there are enough people who already do that.
As others have said that information has never been published by any government. And I doubt it is even collected.
It isn't easy or cheap to collect information, either and there are many other things I would prefer the Government to spend money on

Edited

It seems perfectly easy to record and report the nationality of victims. Happens all the time. Why so difficult for offenders?

LifetimesAgo · Today 22:49

ThatBreezyScroller · Today 22:39

No I’m saying it doesn’t matter what race or nationality is, the statistics show that 90% of rapes and SA are caused by men that the victim knows.

So if you mainly know lots of white, British men and you get attacked- there’s a 90% chance it will be a a white British man.

If you mainly know lots of Japanese men, your attacker is more likely to be Japanese.

I don’t understand why a thread desperate for data has multiple posters completely ignoring the data that is already out there.

Goodness me, you really don’t understand statistics, do you?

That is the current average across the whole UK population.

Depending on your community within the UK, the risk of stranger attack may be far higher or lower than 10%.

If you live in a different country with different cultural norms is will often be far more extremely different: in some countries MOST rapes are random attacks in public.

This isn’t some statistic that is a law of physics. It is a function of our current cultural norms and laws and enforcement of laws. If we change the cultural norms of our society e.g. by importing many high risk individuals from countries with very different risk and offending profiles, why would you think this 10%/ 90% statistic will remain unchanged?!

Regardless, women in the UK can choose who they live with and seek refuge and assistance to escape abusers in their home. Children’s services should be funded far, far better as it is currently failing. But women walking around the street going about their business won’t be comforted when there is an unnecessary elevated risk of stranger attack because “never mind, it’s alright because most attacks happen in the home by people the woman knows, so oh well, you were just unlucky I guess!”.

It’s a ridiculous argument. More young, poor men in society means a higher risk of random attack by a stranger. This is a fact. More young, poor men from cultures where violence and rape of women and children is normalised and seldom punished will obviously make it far less safe for women to go about their daily lives.

Why should we tolerate this elevated risk, as is demonstrated in all of the international data from comparable European countries who aren’t trying to keep their own citizens in the dark? Why do you think Denmark and Sweden have implemented far stricter immigration and asylum policies?

ClarkeandNewman · Today 22:49

IsEveryUserNameBloodyTaken · Today 22:47

Well it would help if we don’t add to the problem wouldn’t it.
But you don’t won’t that do you.
You just want to bleat on about men already here.

Rather dismissive of victims of gender based violence there. I wonder if we could aim for more considered and respectful debate.

EasternStandard · Today 22:50

NullaEffugium · Today 22:45

Amazing! I pointed this out on the other thread that we don’t have the data to draw any conclusions and was faced with outrage, being called stupid, long lectures on how obvious it must be based on racist stereotyping, to speculation that I was some government mole making a concerted effort to cover up and minimise concerns.

You dead right though, this data isn’t being collected.

We’ll see. The ICO say it can be released so there must be something.

ClarkeandNewman · Today 22:51

Winter2020 · Today 22:47

It seems perfectly easy to record and report the nationality of victims. Happens all the time. Why so difficult for offenders?

What would you hope to gain from knowing the nationality of offenders? What do you feel that would tell you?

LifetimesAgo · Today 22:52

NullaEffugium · Today 22:45

Amazing! I pointed this out on the other thread that we don’t have the data to draw any conclusions and was faced with outrage, being called stupid, long lectures on how obvious it must be based on racist stereotyping, to speculation that I was some government mole making a concerted effort to cover up and minimise concerns.

You dead right though, this data isn’t being collected.

So to be clear, you think the ICO ordered the MOJ to release data that doesn’t exist, and now you think the MOJ is going to court to appeal this order so that it can try to get out of releasing non-existent data?

Ok then.

IsEveryUserNameBloodyTaken · Today 22:55

ClarkeandNewman · Today 22:49

Rather dismissive of victims of gender based violence there. I wonder if we could aim for more considered and respectful debate.

I’m a little sick of hearing “but we already have rapists here so what is the problem importing more.”
It’s like standing up for more to be invited in to rape.
These people should be saying no to more rapes but I rather think the excuse of home grown rapist men are being used by the “refugees welcome here” crowd.

NullaEffugium · Today 22:55

poetryandwine · Today 17:16

The German police statistics tell a different story. The BKA (Federal Criminal Police) report that a settled immigrant is 2.5 to 3 times more likely than a native German to be accused of a sex crime by the victim. An asylum seeker or other short term immigrant is 3 to 4 times more likely.

This strongly suggests that short term immigrants do, on the whole, commit more sex offences than settled immigrants. However, people are notoriously reluctant to accuse assailants they know, particularly those they are in a relationship with - sex crimes by known assailants are severely under-reported. Sex crimes by strangers, particularly strangers with dark skin, are much less under- reported.

When one considers the reporting problem, it is difficult to draw valid conclusions about who is committing sex crimes in Germany, except for what I said above. And yes, I think we all know about the 2015-16 New Year’s Eve mass assault. In consequence Germany made deportations easier, which is fine with me.,

The fact checkers have ruled that mostly false for August 2026, and the earlier 2024 claim as false:
https://eufactcheck.eu/factcheck/mostly-false-a-significant-part-of-violence-against-women-comes-from-immigrant-communities/

https://eufactcheck.eu/factcheck/false-almost-60-of-violent-crimes-in-germany-are-committed-by-men-with-migrant-background/

Fabiansrule · Today 22:55

Catza · Today 22:43

I think you are either deliberately misrepresenting the comment or you are completely oblivious of how data analysis works. Which just proves my point that releasing raw data is going to create more problems than it may solve.
Adjusting for variables is not done in order to excuse something. It is done in order to figure out whether the specific behaviour (e.g. sex crime) is truly due a specific factor (e.g. ethnicity) or if it can be explained by a different factor and, in fact, ethnicity makes no difference to the likelihood of the behaviour. That's why statisticians and researchers create complex models to adjust for confounding variables.
I can give you plenty of non-controversial examples from clinical research if you need further explanation.

I think you know I understand that. But you don't seem to understand the point that morality is objective, and using factors and variables to excuse and 'explain' the likelihood of rapey behaviour, isn't appropriate nor useful within this context. The outcome is sex crime, the perpetrators are some immigrants, the victims are UK women and girls (and now old men and boys). It needs to stop.

OP posts:
LifetimesAgo · Today 22:57

ThatBreezyScroller · Today 22:40

The data from charities such as Rape Crisis

LOL. Rape crisis don’t collect crime and population-level statistical data. I know the person who used to run this organisation and it’s a great organisation but it’s not the ONS/ MOJ.

Your comments are getting rather silly.

ClarkeandNewman · Today 22:57

IsEveryUserNameBloodyTaken · Today 22:55

I’m a little sick of hearing “but we already have rapists here so what is the problem importing more.”
It’s like standing up for more to be invited in to rape.
These people should be saying no to more rapes but I rather think the excuse of home grown rapist men are being used by the “refugees welcome here” crowd.

Interesting, perhaps, but nothing to do with the point I was making.

Watermelonsugar44 · Today 22:57

Transparency is important because otherwise there is speculation which can create bigger problems. They should have to release the stats. They should want to release them, why wouldn’t they just be honest? And I include all previous governments too.

Everything is data driven in this country, so they will absolutely know the figures. It speaks volumes that they are trying hard to not make them public.

To be honest though, we all have eyes and ears. You only need to read the news to understand the situation is pretty bad and they’re just the ones being reported. One rape or murder by someone who doesn’t need to be in the country, or who should have been vetted is one too many.

And yes we have our own criminals, that is a separate argument and shouldn’t be used to argue that it is ok to allow more….

Fabiansrule · Today 22:58

NullaEffugium · Today 22:47

No it’s not, the data collected is ethnicity, which is not a proxy for nationality or whether the person has ever migrated anywhere.

The data shown is ethnicity in some MoJ record online. they also record nationality. But won't show that.

OP posts:
ThatBreezyScroller · Today 22:58

EasternStandard · Today 22:47

The system that doesn’t vet at all. You do know the background of those attacks, or do you just think it’s social media algorithms and haven’t happened?

I’m all for vetting the backgrounds, views and MH of anyone that comes into this country - why would I not be?
I don’t think anyone would ever have an issue with people being vetted.

I love my country.
I am a woman, a feminist and both my paid work and volunteer work is all about reducing violence against women and girls.

I just know how the algorithms on SM can make people believe that certain types of people are more dangerous than others, when the real threats are usually much closer to home.

As I’ve said, I would welcome this data to be released but only to highlight how the dangerous men are usually the men we know and trust, not some random stranger off the street.

Fabiansrule · Today 22:59

ThatBreezyScroller · Today 22:58

I’m all for vetting the backgrounds, views and MH of anyone that comes into this country - why would I not be?
I don’t think anyone would ever have an issue with people being vetted.

I love my country.
I am a woman, a feminist and both my paid work and volunteer work is all about reducing violence against women and girls.

I just know how the algorithms on SM can make people believe that certain types of people are more dangerous than others, when the real threats are usually much closer to home.

As I’ve said, I would welcome this data to be released but only to highlight how the dangerous men are usually the men we know and trust, not some random stranger off the street.

How do you explain this data?

'Across Germany, Sweden, Denmark & Finland, migrants are 3.7x to 5.8x as likely as nationals to be suspected or convicted of rape. Non German nationals are 39.2% of rape & sexual assault suspects vs 14.8% of the population, 3.7x the German-national rate. In Sweden, 50.6% of those convicted of rape 2000-2020 were foreign-born vs a ~15% population share, 5.8x the Swedish-born rate.'

https://x.com/Smirkley/status/2093342477591707883

Smirkley (@Smirkley) on X

1. Most countries simply don’t release this data, so it’s rich to say “there is no evidence.” The UK gov is literally fighting to prevent the publication of detailed crime statistics on foreign nationals AFTER it was ordered to. 2. The countries that...

https://x.com/Smirkley/status/2093342477591707883

OP posts:
NullaEffugium · Today 23:01

EasternStandard · Today 22:50

We’ll see. The ICO say it can be released so there must be something.

Yeah, once it exists. This clearly says they haven’t been collecting the data and a number of systemic issues must be addressed beforehand:
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/statistics-on-foreign-national-offenders-and-the-immigration-system/statistics-on-foreign-national-offenders-and-the-immigration-system

“However, the system used to bring together the detailed data and analysis on foreign nationals subject to deportation or return, such as their convicted crime type, their sentence length and their nationality, currently faces a number of issues which affect the quality of the data held on that system. These need to be addressed before data from that system can be considered of sufficient standard to be extracted for statistical purposes.
The Home Office are working to improve the recording of the detailed data held on FNOs and an upgrade to the management information system is currently underway. These improvements require significant changes to the data collection and infrastructure which underpins this management information. Once these changes have been completed, our ability to provide accurate extracts and more detailed information will be significantly improved.
By the end of 2025, if this work progresses as planned, the Home Office proposes to publish more detailed statistical reporting on FNOs subject to deportation and those returned to countries outside of the UK. Until these system developments are complete, we will continue to publish the summary information on FNO returns in the quarterly immigration system statistics.

Further breakdowns of this data, such as statistics on the type of offences committed by FNOs subject to immigration powers, or their nationalities, will be prepared as ‘experimental statistics’ due to them being derived from a redesigned data system. We will need to review the data in the new system, including for any gaps in the recording or transfer of information between the systems where the operational information is currently held.”

Have you ever known the Home Office to meet any deadline?

Statistics on foreign national offenders and the immigration system

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/statistics-on-foreign-national-offenders-and-the-immigration-system/statistics-on-foreign-national-offenders-and-the-immigration-system

ThatBreezyScroller · Today 23:01

LifetimesAgo · Today 22:57

LOL. Rape crisis don’t collect crime and population-level statistical data. I know the person who used to run this organisation and it’s a great organisation but it’s not the ONS/ MOJ.

Your comments are getting rather silly.

Of course you know the person that runs the charity 😂😂

They get their data from places like the office for national statistics and then put it into easily accessible information - but you would already know that because you know the owner of it.

Fabiansrule · Today 23:01

TheOriginalEmu · Today 22:46

that assumes that they are at higher risk. which you don’t know. because we don’t collect that data. do you not see that what you are presenting as fact is not a proven fact?
You think immigrants commit more of this kind of crime so you want statistics to say that. but without any such statistic you cannot claim that they do or that anyone is at higher risk.

Also, what do you count as migrants? are the children of migrants british? if a person has citizenship but wasn’t born here are they a migrant? It’s not a simple thing and there is no basis for your opinion.

Look at data from other European countries. They publish it, you see. Do you think we're different?

https://x.com/Smirkley/status/2093342477591707883

Smirkley (@Smirkley) on X

1. Most countries simply don’t release this data, so it’s rich to say “there is no evidence.” The UK gov is literally fighting to prevent the publication of detailed crime statistics on foreign nationals AFTER it was ordered to. 2. The countries that...

https://x.com/Smirkley/status/2093342477591707883

OP posts:
EasternStandard · Today 23:01

ThatBreezyScroller · Today 22:58

I’m all for vetting the backgrounds, views and MH of anyone that comes into this country - why would I not be?
I don’t think anyone would ever have an issue with people being vetted.

I love my country.
I am a woman, a feminist and both my paid work and volunteer work is all about reducing violence against women and girls.

I just know how the algorithms on SM can make people believe that certain types of people are more dangerous than others, when the real threats are usually much closer to home.

As I’ve said, I would welcome this data to be released but only to highlight how the dangerous men are usually the men we know and trust, not some random stranger off the street.

Ok so it’ll confirm what you want it to be in your view. I find the reference to SM algorithms overlooking the victims and their families’ pain which is very real.

Let’s see what is released.

ThatBreezyScroller · Today 23:02

Fabiansrule · Today 22:59

How do you explain this data?

'Across Germany, Sweden, Denmark & Finland, migrants are 3.7x to 5.8x as likely as nationals to be suspected or convicted of rape. Non German nationals are 39.2% of rape & sexual assault suspects vs 14.8% of the population, 3.7x the German-national rate. In Sweden, 50.6% of those convicted of rape 2000-2020 were foreign-born vs a ~15% population share, 5.8x the Swedish-born rate.'

https://x.com/Smirkley/status/2093342477591707883

OP please can you link the actual source and not random things from social media please as most of us won’t click on it.

IsEveryUserNameBloodyTaken · Today 23:04

ThatBreezyScroller · Today 23:02

OP please can you link the actual source and not random things from social media please as most of us won’t click on it.

Oh but of course you won’t accept any data unless it tallies with your narrative.