I couldn’t sleep last night, worrying about a Reform government

[Cluborange666]

I am really worried. I think they’ll wreck the economy. I’ve got a few years left to pay off my mortgage from my job that deals with immigrants. I don’t want our pensions to tank. I don’t want my sons’ lives to be messed around. I worry about more racism, the more ‘voice’ that Reform get. I live in a very multicultural city and non-white people tell me that they are experiencing more overt racism. It makes me feel very insecure about the future.

wish Labour would do more to show that they are on the side of ordinary people as I think that’s what is driving this (I’m a Labour voter). I don’t think the creation of Your Party will help, just give Reform more advantages.

Sigh. Happy to be told I’m unreasonable as I think the future looks bleak.

They're much more aware of how much money they can make.

It's years before the next election any odds put up today are utterly meaningless. Honestly there's more to winning an election than being favoured by betting companies or polls.

They're much more aware of how much money they can make.

Totally correct (or lose), which is where the massive resources employed in probability analysis comes into it.

If the election was next month or 6 months away I would agree with you but it isn't and any odds offered now are literally meaningless and the UK election is hardly a big take for those companies it's a rounding error compared to their huge profits from sports.

If you feel like putting your life savings on reform winning the next election go for it but it would take a miracle for them to win the seats required and topple the lab/con "musical chairs" we've had for decades.

Now if you were to talk about local elections I can see Reform doing very well in the short term.

Ok, my point is that there are large organisations whose job it is to predict the probability of events and they disagree with your idea that Reform can’t form a Government for 10 years because of FPTP. They’ve staked a lot of money on it.

The UK election is worth nothing to them in terms of profits or loses, again it's a rounding error compared to the billions they make from sport. While those experts are right that if an election was called tomorrow based on public sentiment and polls Reform have good odds but they simply want your money and if betting companies odds were always right or honest they wouldn't have such a lucrative business.

For Reform to win enough seats to take the commons they would have to field candidates in nearly every constituency and win nearly all of them including labour and conservative strongholds. It's highly unlikely to near impossible that's doable by the next election but they could do it in the one after of those odds you posted remain the same.

It’s almost doable now based on polling. They don’t need more time, they possibly need less time.

Polling is notoriously inaccurate and totally irrelevant when the election is years away.

If the polls remain the same when we're 6 months away from the next general election I'll take them more seriously but even then I can't see reform achieving much more than creating a hung parliament and immediately seeing it's members push for a con/ref coalition only to lose most of their newly acquired "working class" vote due to being tied to the cons just like it ruined the liberals.

‘The UK election is worth nothing to them in terms of profits or loses’

I‘m sorry to press the point, but it’s not almost nothing. If they put the odds at 1000/1 inline with your almost impossible prediction and 50k people but £500 on, how much would they loose if Reform won? 25 billion is the answer.
I get you think it’s unlikely but I don’t think you’re fully up to date with what is going on, FPTP is factored in.

Just to get away from my obsession with gambling for one minute 😀. Opinion polls (analysed by electoral calculus) put an 82% chance of Reform being the largest party in the next GE.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html

50k people aren't going to bet £500 on the UK election in 4 years time when they can bet that same £500 on sport or online websites and see a return today.

I know fptp is factored into their predictions but they are also well aware 4 years is a long time and barely anyone is going to bet on it which is why they are happy to offer the odds.

This is politics though, not a personal endorsement.

And I am not saying any one individual does not like or dislike Trump personally or anything like that. Some people are personally similar to him.

But you cannot conclude much about political alliances in themselves. Look how many people have been politically aligned with the Clintons, including campaigning, mentoring, inviting them to things, fundraising, and more. And yet many or even most probably don't particularly approve of the way they have behaved towards women over the years. Or some of their other personal stuff.

They absolutely need less time ( thank goodness) their new MP won by 6 votes. I would suggest that she would lose that seat tomorrow if there was an election. She has annoyed so many people with her want to be top of the GB News shockers.
It will also be interesting to see how Nigel squares Ant Middletons congratulations after the protest today organised by Britain First and some unsavoury characters.
This will catch up with them eventually. You can’t shout save our women and children and ignore a patriot who attacked a 76 year old woman-or maybe you can… some have form for violence against women.
It must be very hard squaring those circles.
Play with fire and see what happens.

Ok, fair enough. I’ve moved on from my betting example now 😀

Opinion polls are worse than the betting companies unless the election is close.

I'm happy to agree to disagree though 😀and I'll happily eat humble pie if reform do win the next GE

I think we’ll have to. See you in 4ish years

moneyweek.com/investments/house-prices/britain-house-price-crash-is-coming

And https://etonomics.com/2025/02/09/britannia-on-the-brink-is-the-uk-turning-into-greece-lightning/

the first one is more recent and things have got worse in terms of growth and fiscal policy since this article.

www.ft.com/content/22e894b1-cdd1-401c-b65f-18086c0d1d9d

I strongly beg to differ. A criminal past (if proven) is NOT just 'personal life' and aligning oneself with someone guilty of those crimes is akin to condoning them, yes. Working in politics should not cancel out any moral compass ffs. If you think that, you're better off in the mafia. And I strongly feel that politics should be better than that! That's not being a purist, it's demanding standards that are a bit higher than the gutter.

Hang on. Are we still talking about Nigel Farage being accused of supporting Jimmy Saville. Because that is defamatory.

And Trump is President of the US. Elected President. Nigel maintaining a friendship is a very wise thing for the Uk particularly if he becomes PM. The people in Labour being sniffy about Trump just to look virtuous or applying their own "moral compass" are fools and detrimental to the country's interests. What will benefit the country more..those MPs having the individual luxury of thinking they look virtuous or keeping the most powerful country in the world on side.

Part of this country's problems are due to wanting to look virtuous to the world's stage at the expense of the UKs interests when everyone looks on bemused as the government does the wrong thing for the UK time and time again. Keir Starmer being the worst.

Starmer is frequently criticised for being considerably more skilled internationally than he is domestically. How can you possibly say he does the wrong thing for the UK? He got better tariff terms from Trump than any other country in the world. If that’s being the worst, bring it on.

Thanks. That article is a lot less dramatic than your assertion!

Trump may be the elected POTUS but the whole Epstein thing stinks to high heaven. I suspect many high ranking politicians from both parties may be compromised. Let's not forget DJT has also been convicted of felonies, so there's form here. The fact that the American electorate saw fit to reelect him is an issue for the US- and for the US's close allies, by the way. The reasons for his victory were complex. Obviously, I think the UK can and should maintain diplomatic ties with the US administration considering it was legitimately elected but a friendship with Trump is a major step too far and reflects badly on Farage - frankly on us as a country if that's who decide to go for as a leader. What sort of values do we stand for? We deserve better leaders on both sides of the Atlantic. And morals do matter.

Well I think the UK needs all the friends it can get. And luckily Nigel is friends with Trump and I bet that will have a positive effect. Better for the county than Khan flying a Trump baby blimp over London to insult a visiting US President. Excruciating Labour. As usual.

I know where I stand. History will judge. I think this 'friendship' is capitulation, not pragmatism.