Western politicians are free to behave like 6th formers, without understanding the consequences or without thinking those consequences will happen any time soon.
Arab leadership understands the islamist threat much more clearly. They were probably cringing at Macron and Starmer.
If a Palestinian state is recognised and then Hamas or another militant Islamist force overthrows the Palestinian Authority and seizes full control - West Bank and Gaza - the regional fallout would be massive.
Imagine this chain of events:
- UK, France, and others recognise Palestine.
- Hamas uses that momentum to oust the PA in the West Bank (as it did in Gaza in 2007).
- A Hamas-controlled “State of Palestine” is declared, covering both Gaza and the West Bank.
- The international community is paralysed because recognition has already happened.
- Iran celebrates. Israel mobilises.
For Saudi, the Abraham Accords dead. Saudi normalisation with Israel collapses, Saudi clerics and hardliners would call on the regime to fund or support the new “liberated” Palestine, Iran wpuld be strengthened. A Hamas-led state is Tehran’s proxy. Saudis would see this as an existential threat. Anti-regime Islamist sentiment could flare. Salafists and Islamists would rally around the “resistance” model everywhere having seen the rewards.
So the Saudi monarchy wkuld face increased domestic radicalisation, weakened diplomatic position, and potential internal unrest if not seeing its modernisation efforts reversed or even a complete takeover by clerics positioned as resistance.
Qatar has long backed Hamas politically and financially, but never had to deal with the consequences of Hamas. Once there were wild in the West Bank warring on israel even more boldly, western pressure on Qatar would skyrocket, sanctions, diplomatic isolation, withdrawal of US bases would be threatened. Qatar becomes a pariah or is forced to disown Hamas, leading to proxy conflict between Gulf states.
Egypt shares a border with Gaza and is already battling Islamist insurgents in the Sinai. A Hamas-run Palestine next door is like pouring petrol on that fire. The Muslim Brotherhood (Hamas’s parent group) is banned in Egypt; a Hamas-led state would energise its supporters.
Border control could collapse - weapons, fighters, ideology spill into Egypt and Egypt’s regime (military-led, secular, and anti-Islamist) would face renewed Islamist insurgency at home and chaos at its border. Theres imminent threat of destabilisation of Sisi’s government, and increased Iranian influence on its doorstep.
This move would hand power to Iran and its terror proxies. A Hamas-led Palestine = Iran’s dream scenario, a proxy state directly bordering Israel, armed to the teeth, with state legitimacy.
A terrorist-led “Palestine” kills the credibility of the peace process permanently. It would now become a fight to the death probably and who knows what deathtoll and outcome the world is looking at.
TModerate Arab states (Jordan, UAE, Morocco) are forced to choose: support Palestine or oppose Hamas, dividing the Arab world.
West Bank instability spills into Jordan. Massive Palestinian population in Jordan could become radicalised, with Hamas sympathisers challenging the monarchy. IMO Egypt and Jordan would be at high risk of an imminent islamist coup.
A Hamas takeover of a recognised Palestine would be a strategic catastrophe for the Arab world, especially for regimes trying to modernise, keep Islamism in check, and balance relations with the West.
They may hate Israel, but they fear Hamas far more. Recognition that inadvertently legitimises terror doesn’t just hurt Israel it burns down the regional order the Arab states have spent decades trying to hold together and it would set back the entire region by hundreds of years.
Starmer and Macron are so stupid.