Might get a bit of backlash from my response, but its just my observations / opinions.
I think a very small minority of those who say they are trans, are actually trans.
There seems to be a disconnect between recognising sex and gender as completely different aspects to your identity. Sex is your genetic make up. Gender is a social construct, that you can choose to conform to, or not.
I have a trans cousin FTM (no surgery etc as of yet but on hormone blockers, T etc). This revelation came at a time when he was recently grieving the loss of his mum to cancer. He had been bullied in school for years. At 24, he now had said he "thinks" he is actually non binary.
I had a colleague in the past also say they were transitioning FTM. Had previously identified as a lesbian female. Blockers etc taken, T and had top surgery. Years later, they also came out as non binary - although does not regret the surgery etc and dresses more like a male than a female. They had counselling, and after many many years of this, recognised that their identity had been crushed from years of child SA.
I have known of a couple of other MTF persons in my time that were relentlessly bullied for being a "feminine male" etc, that is basically became a self fulling prophecy.
I do wonder if childhood trauma pushes young people to want to drastically "change" their identities and rid of their past selves, rather than genuinely wanting to be the opposite sex.
As I mentioned, gender is a social construct. Maybe if parents are more accepting of their children growing up doing things they want to do, or dressing how they like, there wouldnt be as much of a crisis in young people, feeling desperate to put a label on what they are.
E.g. if your son wants to do ballet, it does not make him "gay" or "trans", maybe he just wants to do ballet?
Or if your daughter wants to wear tracksuits / football kits, it doesnt make them lesbian or "trans", its just a clothing preference?
I have it engrained in my DS from very young, that yes, he is male and has a penis, but if he wants to wear a wig or one of my dresses, he can. He can have his nails painted. He can pursue any career he wants in the future, despite his sex.
DS also went through a phase of "wanting to be a girl" but that soon died off when I explained to him the difference between sex and gender, and let him know that he didnt have to conform to the gender "norms" that are constructed.
To note, I am aware that there is a very small number that this may not apply to, and they are genuinely trans and happy with transitioning to the opposite sex.